NCAAB Free Pick: Montana Grizzlies at Michigan Wolverines 2019-03-21

NCAAB Free Pick: Montana Grizzlies at Michigan Wolverines 2019-03-21

Thursday, March 21, 2019, 9:20 PM: This NCAAB contest has the Grizzlies of Montana on the road to Ann Arbor, Michigan to face the Michigan Wolverines. The home line opened at -15.0 and for those betting college basketball totals, the number is set at 129.0.

Looking at Montana Grizzlies (12-14) recently, we can see they are averaging 0.0 points per game over the last 30 days while allowing 0.0. Those numbers on the road over the last month are 0.0 points for and 0.0. For the season against the spread, the Grizzlies are 0-1 and on the road against the spread, the record is 0-1. The total has gone over on 1 occasions compared to 1 times under the number. As the road team, the over-under is 1-1.

Meanwhile, a recent look at the Michigan Wolverines (23-6) over the last 30 days shows them averaging 0.0 points for and 0.0 points against per game on average while the differential here at Crisler Center over the past 30 days is 0.0-0.0. For college basketball bettors making NCAAB picks against the line, the Wolverines are 1-0 ATS overall and 1-0 as the home team. As for the total in Wolverines games, the Over-Under result this season has been 0-1 overall and 0-1 here on the home court.

MONTANA GRIZZLIES VS MICHIGAN WOLVERINES EARLY PUBLIC CONSENSUS REVIEW

Here is a quick look at the early public action on the game, which reflects overnight betting, as reported by participating sportsbooks.

  • Betting Montana against the spread(15.0): 0%
  • Betting Montana to win straight up(): 0%
  • Betting Michigan against the spread(-15.0): 0%
  • Betting Michigan to win straight up(): 0%
  • Betting Over the Total(129.0): 0%
  • Betting Under the Total(129.0): 0%

These reports are particularly of interest to "steam" bettors and "consensus" junkies. We like to look at these numbers in contrast to the value that we see in the line. If public trends are eating at our perceived value, we prefer to get in on the games early and capture a good number, but if the trend is on the wrong side, we may prefer to wait and make our bets closer to game time to milk another half point or more out of the number.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICK FROM LOCK NESS SPORTS

We selected this game as a free opinion today because we do not have a premium selection on it but we have done really well betting on or against Wolverines games (14-4/77.80%) and we feel we have our finger on the pulse of this matchup.

This opinion all comes down to "value" or "false value" and we make that determination by looking at the point spread as it is (Michigan -15.0) compared to where we feel it should be (Michigan -30.5). From there we decide if there is any value or false value in the number by examining the public perception on the game, the early public betting trends and the situational trends in this particular matchup.

Lock Ness Sports says, take the Michigan Wolverines -15/-106
(Record for Professional Handicapper Lock Ness Sports betting on or against the Michigan Wolverines: 14-4/77.80%, +9770.00)

GAME NOTES: POWER RATINGS: MICHIGAN 96.5, MONTANA 66.0

Posted on Wednesday, March 20, 2019 by Lock Ness Sports


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