NCAAB Free Pick: Central Michigan Chippewas at Liberty Flames 2018-03-24

NCAAB Free Pick: Central Michigan Chippewas at Liberty Flames 2018-03-24

This college basketball matchup pits the Chippewas of Central Michigan against the Liberty Flames here at Vines Center in Lynchburg, Virginia. Oddsmakers have put a line on the Flames of -3.5 while the total sits at 142.5. Start time is 1:00 PM.

The Central Michigan Chippewas (15-13) are averaging 78.1 points per game this season while allowing 74.4. Those numbers on the road are 80.1 points for and 82.5. Betting against the Las Vegas number, the Central Michigan is 17-10 overall and 8-5 on the road. Over the Total has won the money in 17 Chippewas games while Under the total has cashed in 11 games. As the road team, it has gone over-under 11-2.

The points scoring for the Liberty Flames (17-14) has averaged 71.0 points for and 64.1 points against on average while the home differential is 71.5-60.4. Against the spread, NCAAB handicappers betting on the Flames have gone 5-4 overall and 1-2 when listed as the home team. The Over/Under in Flames games has gone 2-7 overall and 1-2 on home court.


Here is a quick look at the early public action on the game, which reflects overnight betting, as reported by participating sportsbooks.

  • Betting Central Michigan against the spread(3.5): 73%
  • Betting Central Michigan to win straight up(148): 56%
  • Betting Liberty against the spread(-3.5): 27%
  • Betting Liberty to win straight up(-170): 44%
  • Betting Over the Total(142.5): 55%
  • Betting Under the Total(142.5): 45%

These reports are particularly of interest to "steam" bettors and "consensus" junkies. We like to look at these numbers in contrast to the value that we see in the line. If public trends are eating at our perceived value, we prefer to get in on the games early and capture a good number, but if the trend is on the wrong side, we may prefer to wait and make our bets closer to game time to milk another half point or more out of the number.


We selected this game as a free opinion today because we do not have a premium selection on it but we have done really well betting on or against Flames games (3-1/75.00%) and we feel we have our finger on the pulse of this matchup.

This opinion all comes down to "value" or "false value" and we make that determination by looking at the point spread as it is (Liberty -3.5) compared to where we feel it should be (Liberty -1). From there we decide if there is any value or false value in the number by examining the public perception on the game, the early public betting trends and the situational trends in this particular matchup.

Ben Obama says, take the Central Michigan Chippewas 3/-106
(Record for Professional Handicapper Ben Obama betting on or against the Liberty Flames: 3-1/75.00%, +1900.00)


Posted on Friday, March 23, 2018 by Ben Obama
Central Michigan Chippewas, Liberty Flames, College Basketball Betting, March Madness bets, NCAA wagering, NCAAB Free Picks, College Basketball Predictions, Betting College Hoops

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