NCAAB Free Pick: Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers 2018-03-08

NCAAB Free Pick: Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers 2018-03-08

The Virginia Cavaliers (28-2) will meet the Louisville Cardinals (19-12) here at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York in this tussle. The line on the Cavaliers is -7.5 while the total shows at 123.0. For those looking to deliver a slam dunk with your college basketball picks today, you have come to the right place.

Playing out of the Atlantic Coast, the Louisville Cardinals rank number 9 in conference play. On the national stage, the Cardinals currently sit at number 23 overall on the oddsmakers power ratings poll.

The Virginia Cavaliers currently rank number 1 in Atlantic Coast conference play and when stacked up against all the college basketball teams in the country, they currently sit at number 3 according to national oddsmakers.


Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.

  • Betting Louisville against the spread(7.5): 67%
  • Betting Louisville to win straight up(281): 23%
  • Betting Virginia against the spread(-7.5): 33%
  • Betting Virginia to win straight up(-349): 77%
  • Betting Over the Total(123.0): 72%
  • Betting Under the Total(123.0): 28%

Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".


The Virginia Cavaliers is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 14 documented premium wagers on Cavaliers games in the last decade, winning 12, next to just 2 for a winning rate of 85.70% and profits of $9940.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.

Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 144.1. Together, the teams average 122.5 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 133.3, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.

To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, which is considered "neutral", the power rating on the Virginia Cavaliers is 92.5 while the Louisville Cardinals bring a rating of 85.5, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for Virginia is -7.

Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.

Piotr Golda says, take the Virginia Cavaliers -8/-106
(Record for Professional Handicapper Piotr Golda betting on or against the Virginia Cavaliers: 12-2/85.70%, +9940.00)


Posted on Wednesday, March 7, 2018 by Piotr Golda
Louisville Cardinals, Virginia Cavaliers, College Basketball Betting, March Madness bets, NCAA wagering, NCAAB Free Picks, College Basketball Predictions, Betting College Hoops

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I believe there is no substitution for hard work and long hours. I do not believe in simple trends and systems, but rather that situational factors, or dynamics, play just as much factor against the spread as does statistical information. Remember that the result of the game is not determined by stats, rather that stats are determined as a result of the game.

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