NBA Free Pick: Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings 2019-03-21

NBA Free Pick: Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings 2019-03-21

The Dallas Mavericks (28-42) visit Sleep Train Arena on Thursday, March 21, 2019, to challenge with the Sacramento Kings (34-36). The home line is -8.5, the total is set at 229.0 and the start time is 10:05 PM.

The Mavericks have a record against the spread of 11-9 this season and are averaging 108.3 points per contest while allowing 110.1. The total has gone over the posted line 9 times while staying under the total in 12 instances.

On the other side of the court, the Kings have a record against the number of 8-7, averaging 114.1 points per contest while opponents score an average of 115.0 against them. The total has gone over the posted line 6 times in Kings games while staying under the total in 9 instances.


Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.

  • Betting Dallas against the spread(8.5): 51%
  • Betting Dallas to win straight up(): 48%
  • Betting Sacramento against the spread(-8.5): 49%
  • Betting Sacramento to win straight up(): 52%
  • Betting Over the Total(229.0): 50%
  • Betting Under the Total(229.0): 50%

Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".


The Sacramento Kings is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 60 documented premium wagers on Kings games in the last decade, winning 43, next to just 17 for a winning rate of 71.70% and profits of $30220.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.

Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 222.4. Together, the teams average 225.1 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 223.75, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.

To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, the power rating on the hometown Kings is 88.0 while the visiting Mavericks bring a rating of 84.0, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for Sacramento is -4.

Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.

Vegas Mafia says, take the Sacramento Kings -9/-105
(Record for Professional Handicapper Vegas Mafia betting on or against the Sacramento Kings: 43-17/71.70%, +30220.00)


Posted on Wednesday, March 20, 2019 by Vegas Mafia
Dallas Mavericks, Sacramento Kings, NBA basketball pick, basketball tips, NBA betting advice, wagering strategies, hoops betting, bet on basketball

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