Moneyline Break Even Chart

If you flip a coin there are two possible outcomes; "Heads" or "Tails". There are two possible outcomes of the coin flip, with each one being just as likely as the other. In theory, both "Heads" and "Tails" have a 50% chance of winning each flip. This 50% chance of happening is referred to as "implied probability".

In this simplistic example, fans of "Tails" would require even odds (expressed as -100 on the North American Money Line) to break even on this particular bet over time. If a bettor could secure better (higher) than even odds he can make a good "value bet", whereas if the line is lower that even odds, it becomes a bad bet, or "sucker bet".

Outcomes of sporting events are not as cut and dried as coin flips, but it's still important to know the break even point for each and an implied probability (implied win%). Knowing the break even point for implied probability allows handicappers to recognize value bets when they appear. Below is a guide to a wide variety of standard moneylines and the win percentage one would have to secure to break even at them.

Money Line Break Even Table

Favorites		Underdogs
Line	Win % (implied probabilities)	Line	Win % (implied probabilities)
-1200	92.30%	1200	7.70%
-1100	91.66%	1100	8.34%
-1000	90.91%	1000	9.09%
-900	90%	900	10%
-800	88.88%	800	11.12%
-750	88.23%	750	11.77%
-700	87.50%	700	12.50%
-650	86.66%	650	13.34%
-600	85.71%	600	14.29%
-575	85.18%	575	14.82%
-550	84.61%	550	15.39%
-525	84%	525	16%
-500	83.33%	500	16.67%
-480	82.75%	480	17.25%
-460	82.14%	460	17.86%
-450	81.81%	450	18.19%
-440	81.48%	440	18.52%
-430	81.13%	430	18.87%
-420	80.76%	420	19.24%
-410	80.39%	410	19.61%
-400	80%	400	20%
-395	79.79%	395	20.21%
-390	79.59%	390	20.41%
-385	79.38%	385	20.62%
-380	79.16%	380	20.84%
-375	78.94%	375	21.06%
-370	78.72%	370	21.28%
-365	78.49%	365	21.51%
-360	78.26%	360	21.74%
-355	78.02%	355	21.98%
-350	77.77%	350	22.23%
-345	77.52%	345	22.48%
-340	77.27%	340	22.73%
-335	77.01%	335	22.99%
-330	76.74%	330	23.26%
-325	76.47%	325	23.53%
-320	76.19%	320	23.81%
-315	75.90%	315	24.10%
-310	75.60%	310	24.40%
-305	75.30%	305	24.70%
-300	75%	300	25%
-295	74.68%	295	25.32%
-290	74.35%	290	25.65%
-285	74.02%	285	25.98%
-280	73.68%	280	26.32%
-275	73.33%	275	26.67%
-270	72.97%	270	27.03%
-265	72.60%	265	27.40%
-260	72.22%	260	27.78%
-255	71.83%	255	28.17%
-250	71.42%	250	28.58%
-245	71.01%	245	28.99%
-240	70.58%	240	29.42%
-235	70.14%	235	29.86%
-230	69.69%	230	30.31%
-225	69.23%	225	30.77%
-220	68.75%	220	31.25%
-215	68.25%	215	31.75%
-210	67.74%	210	32.26%
-205	67.21%	205	32.79%
-200	66.66%	200	33.34%
-195	66.10%	195	33.90%
-190	65.51%	190	34.49%
-185	64.91%	185	35.09%
-180	64.28%	180	35.72%
-175	63.63%	175	36.37%
-170	62.96%	170	37.04%
-165	62.26%	165	37.74%
-160	61.53%	160	38.47%
-155	60.78%	155	39.22%
-150	60%	150	40%
-145	59.18%	145	40.82%
-140	58.33%	140	41.67%
-135	57.44%	135	42.56%
-130	56.52%	130	43.48%
-125	55.55%	125	44.45%
-120	54.54%	120	45.46%
-115	53.48%	115	46.52%
-110	52.38%	110	47.62%
-105	51.21%	105	48.79%
-100	50%	100	50%

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#handicapping

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