MLB Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers 2018-10-12

MLB Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers 2018-10-12

The Milwaukee Brewers (97-66) will play host to the Los Angeles Dodgers (92-70) here at Miller Park in this tilt on Friday, October 12, 2018, to match up with the Milwaukee Brewers (97-66) . The line on the Brewers is 1.5 while the total shows at 7.5. For those looking to go yard with your major league baseball picks today, you have come to the right place.

The Los Angeles Dodgers send south paw Clayton Kershaw to the mound today. The 6 foot 4 inch, 225 pound lefty from Dallas, Texas will look to get the Dodgers the win today in this major league baseball tilt.

Meanwhile, 6 foot 0 inch, 203 pound south paw, Gio Gonzalez, from Hialeah, Florida will get the start for the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brewers have been better at home, where they are 52-30 and average 4.7 points per game. Betting against the Vegas number, Milwaukee is 38-44 here in Milwaukee while the total has gone over 38 times compared to 41 times under the total.

The average points scored on the road for the visiting Dodgers is 5.5 and comes alongside a record of 76-86 against the spread as the visitor this season. The total has gone over the number 74 times while falling under the total on 81 occasions.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS CONSENSUS REPORT

Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.

  • Betting Los Angeles against the spread(-1.5): 51%
  • Betting Los Angeles to win straight up(-155): 48%
  • Betting Milwaukee against the spread(1.5): 49%
  • Betting Milwaukee to win straight up(143): 52%
  • Betting Over the Total(7.5): 50%
  • Betting Under the Total(7.5): 50%

Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".

LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL FREE PICK

The Milwaukee Brewers is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 148 documented premium wagers on Brewers games in the last decade, winning 108, next to just 40 for a winning rate of 73.00% and profits of $67590.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.

Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 9.5. Together, the teams average 7.7 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 8.6, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.

To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, the power rating on the hometown Brewers is 4.5 while the visiting Dodgers bring a rating of 4.4, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for Milwaukee is -0.1.

Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.

Power Plays says, take the Los Angeles Dodgers 0/-155
(Record for Professional Handicapper Power Plays betting on or against the Milwaukee Brewers: 108-40/73.00%, +67590.00)

GAME NOTES: POWER RATINGS: MILWAUKEE 4.5, LOS ANGELES 4.4

Posted on Thursday, October 11, 2018 by Power Plays


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