NHL Free Pick: Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins 2018-04-06

NHL Free Pick: Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins 2018-04-06

The Senators of Ottawa travels to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania in this matchup to collide with the Pittsburgh Penguins. The puck drop on this game at 7:30 PM. For those handicappers out there making expert picks on the game, the home line is set at -1.5 while the total is hung at 6.0.

The Ottawa Senators (28-52) hold a road record of 12-27 record on the road and are 23-16 on the road when betting the Vegas line. As for the game total, Senators road games have gone over the total 19 times and 20 have landed under the total.

The hometown Pittsburgh Penguins (46-35), have a record on their home ice of 29-11 and are 16-24 against the spread. Those who are betting hockey picks on the total will note the Penguins record of 23 over and 16 under here at PPG Paints Arena.


Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.

  • Betting Ottawa against the spread(1.5): 15%
  • Betting Ottawa to win straight up(225): 19%
  • Betting Pittsburgh against the spread(-1.5): 85%
  • Betting Pittsburgh to win straight up(-275): 81%
  • Betting Over the Total(6.0): 78%
  • Betting Under the Total(6.0): 22%

Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".


The Pittsburgh Penguins is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 113 documented premium wagers on Penguins games in the last decade, winning 79, next to just 34 for a winning rate of 69.90% and profits of $11140.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.

Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 6. Together, the teams average 6.6 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 6.3, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.

To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, the power rating on the hometown Penguins is 3.8 while the visiting Senators bring a rating of 3.0, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for Pittsburgh is -0.8.

Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.

Eduardo Costa Verez says, take the Pittsburgh Penguins 0/-275
(Record for Professional Handicapper Eduardo Costa Verez betting on or against the Pittsburgh Penguins: 79-34/69.90%, +11140.00)


Posted on Thursday, April 5, 2018 by Eduardo Costa Verez

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