NHL Free Pick: Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators 2018-03-08

NHL Free Pick: Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators 2018-03-08

Welcome to Ottawa, Ontario for this skate pitting the visiting Buffalo Sabres against the hometown Ottawa Senators in the friendly confines of Canadian Tire Centre. Las Vegas oddsmakers have posted a line on the Senators of -1.5 and set the total at 5.5.

The Buffalo Sabres (21-46) are averaging 2.4 points per game this season while allowing 3.3, which has led to a record of 38-29 against the spread this season. On the road against the betting line, the record for the Sabres is 21-13. The number has gone over the total on 30 occasions while falling under the total 33 times. As the road team, those numbers are 15 over and 16 under.

On the other side of the ice, the Senators of Ottawa Senators (23-42) have averaged 2.7 points for and 3.5 points against on the season. On home ice, those numbers change to 3.2-3.6. For those making NHL hockey picks against the spread, the Senators are 34-31 ATS on the season and15-17 ATS as the home team. Over the total has cashed 34 times this season in Senators games while under the total has paid off 31 times. The home record for Over/Under in Senators games is 18-14.


Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.

  • Betting Buffalo against the spread(1.5): 15%
  • Betting Buffalo to win straight up(163): 20%
  • Betting Ottawa against the spread(-1.5): 85%
  • Betting Ottawa to win straight up(-183): 80%
  • Betting Over the Total(5.5): 53%
  • Betting Under the Total(5.5): 47%

Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".


The Ottawa Senators is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 33 documented premium wagers on Senators games in the last decade, winning 25, next to just 8 for a winning rate of 75.80% and profits of $18860.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.

Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 5.1. Together, the teams average 6.8 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 5.95, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.

To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, the power rating on the hometown Senators is 3.3 while the visiting Sabres bring a rating of 3.0, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for Ottawa is -0.3.

Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.

Right Angle Advantage says, take the Ottawa Senators 0/-147
(Record for Professional Handicapper Right Angle Advantage betting on or against the Ottawa Senators: 25-8/75.80%, +18860.00)

GAME NOTES: STS-G-Craig Anderson-Probable | TV: MSG-Buffalo, DTV: 636 POWER RATINGS: OTTAWA 3.3, BUFFALO 3.0

Posted on Wednesday, March 7, 2018 by Right Angle Advantage
Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators, NHL Free Picks, NHL Predictions, Betting the Puckline, NHL Betting, NHL Tips

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