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NHL Free Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers 2018-03-07

NHL Free Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers 2018-03-07

The Penguins of Pittsburgh travels to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania in this matchup to collide with the Philadelphia Flyers. The puck drop on this game at 8:00 PM. For those handicappers out there making expert picks on the game, the home line is set at -1.5 while the total is hung at 6.0.

The Pittsburgh Penguins (38-29) hold a road record of 13-20 record on the road and are 18-15 on the road when betting the Vegas line. As for the game total, Penguins road games have gone over the total 17 times and 15 have landed under the total.

The hometown Philadelphia Flyers (34-32), have a record on their home ice of 16-16 and are 10-22 against the spread. Those who are betting hockey picks on the total will note the Flyers record of 17 over and 14 under here at Wells Fargo Center.


Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.

  • Betting Pittsburgh against the spread(1.5): 17%
  • Betting Pittsburgh to win straight up(-109): 41%
  • Betting Philadelphia against the spread(-1.5): 83%
  • Betting Philadelphia to win straight up(-111): 59%
  • Betting Over the Total(6.0): 95%
  • Betting Under the Total(6.0): 5%

Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".


The Philadelphia Flyers is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 19 documented premium wagers on Flyers games in the last decade, winning 15, next to just 4 for a winning rate of 78.90% and profits of $11920.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.

Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 6.3. Together, the teams average 5.9 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 6.1, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.

To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, the power rating on the hometown Flyers is 3.8 while the visiting Penguins bring a rating of 3.8, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for Philadelphia is 0.

Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.

Pro Consensus says, take the Pittsburgh Penguins 0/-105
(Record for Professional Handicapper Pro Consensus betting on or against the Philadelphia Flyers: 15-4/78.90%, +11920.00)

GAME NOTES: PEN-G-Tristan Jarry-Probable | fly-G-Petr Mrazek-Probable | TV: NBCS, TVA, DTV: 220 POWER RATINGS: PHILADELPHIA 3.8, PITTSBURGH 3.8

Posted on Tuesday, March 6, 2018 by Pro Consensus
Pittsburgh Penguins, Philadelphia Flyers, NHL Free Picks, NHL Predictions, Betting the Puckline, NHL Betting, NHL Tips

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