NCAAF Free Pick: West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma State Cowboys 2018-11-17

NCAAF Free Pick: West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma State Cowboys 2018-11-17

In NCAAF action today, the Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-5) host the West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1) in a much-anticipated contest. The line on the host Cowboys is 6.5 while the total is pegged at 73.0. The kick off is set for 3:30 PM.

Currently, the Big 12 #2 ranked team, the West Virginia Mountaineers arrive in Stillwater averaging 40.9 ppg while allowing 20.9 ppg. Fans making college football picks against the spread will note Mountaineers record of 3-0 against the spread and an Over/Under ledger that sits at 1-2.

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma State Cowboys hold down the #5 position in the Big 12. They score on average 39.2 ppg and concede an average of 31.7 ppg. Betting on the Cowboys against the spread has produced a 3-2 record while betting the totals has gone 1 Over and 3 Under.


Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.

  • Betting West Virginia against the spread(-6.5): 61%
  • Betting West Virginia to win straight up(-233): 43%
  • Betting Oklahoma State against the spread(6.5): 39%
  • Betting Oklahoma State to win straight up(203): 57%
  • Betting Over the Total(73.0): 95%
  • Betting Under the Total(73.0): 5%

Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".


The Oklahoma State Cowboys is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 15 documented premium wagers on Cowboys games in the last decade, winning 12, next to just 3 for a winning rate of 80.00% and profits of $8810.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.

Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 80.1. Together, the teams average 52.6 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 66.35, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.

To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, the power rating on the hometown Cowboys is 81.5 while the visiting Mountaineers bring a rating of 87.0, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for Oklahoma State is 5.5.

Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.

Matt Moorhead says, take the West Virginia Mountaineers -5/-110
(Record for Professional Handicapper Matt Moorhead betting on or against the Oklahoma State Cowboys: 12-3/80.00%, +8810.00)


Posted on Friday, November 16, 2018 by Matt Moorhead
West Virginia Mountaineers, Oklahoma State Cowboys, college football picks, college football handicapping, ncaa football betting, sports betting, college football odds, ncaa football lines, bet sports, sportsbooks, sportsbook, bowl championship series, bcs

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