Butler Bulldogs at Providence Friars 2020-03-12 - Free NCAAB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Thursday, March 12, 2020, 2:30 PM: This NCAAB contest has the Bulldogs of Butler on the road to Providence, Rhode Island to face the Providence Friars. The home line opened at 1.5 and for those betting college basketball totals, the number is set at 129.5.

Looking at Butler Bulldogs (19-9) recently, we can see they are averaging 67.4 points per game over the last 30 days while allowing 65.3. Those numbers on the road over the last month are 67.7 points for and 75.3. For the season against the spread, the Bulldogs are 15-13 and on the road against the spread, the record is 6-5. The total has gone over on 11 occasions compared to 16 times under the number. As the road team, the over-under is 4-6.

Meanwhile, a recent look at the Providence Friars (16-12) over the last 30 days shows them averaging 75.9 points for and 67.0 points against per game on average while the differential here at Dunkin Donuts Center over the past 30 days is 82.8-68.0. For college basketball bettors making NCAAB picks against the line, the Friars are 11-12 ATS overall and 5-6 as the home team. As for the total in Friars games, the Over-Under result this season has been 12-14 overall and 7-7 here on the home court.


Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.

  • Betting Butler against the spread(-1.5): 51%
  • Betting Butler to win straight up(-114): 48%
  • Betting Providence against the spread(1.5): 49%
  • Betting Providence to win straight up(-102): 52%
  • Betting Over the Total(129.5): 50%
  • Betting Under the Total(129.5): 50%

Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".


The Providence Friars is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 30 documented premium wagers on Friars games in the last decade, winning 24, next to just 6 for a winning rate of 80.00% and profits of $17690.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.

Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 139.9. Together, the teams average 128.3 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 134.1, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.

To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, the power rating on the hometown Friars is 85.0 while the visiting Bulldogs bring a rating of 84.0, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for Providence is -1.

Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.

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