NCAAB Free Pick: Green Bay Phoenix at Marshall Thundering Herd 2019-04-04
Thursday, April 4, 2019, 7:00 PM: This NCAAB contest has the Phoenix of Green Bay on the road to Huntington, West Virginia to face the Marshall Thundering Herd. The home line opened at -5.5 and for those betting college basketball totals, the number is set at 167.0.
Looking at Green Bay Phoenix (16-16) recently, we can see they are averaging 0.0 points per game over the last 30 days while allowing 0.0. Those numbers on the road over the last month are 0.0 points for and 0.0. For the season against the spread, the Phoenix are 0-1 and on the road against the spread, the record is 0-0. The total has gone over on 0 occasions compared to 1 times under the number. As the road team, the over-under is 0-0.
Meanwhile, a recent look at the Marshall Thundering Herd (23-10) over the last 30 days shows them averaging 0.0 points for and 0.0 points against per game on average while the differential here at Cam Henderson Center over the past 30 days is 0.0-0.0. For college basketball bettors making NCAAB picks against the line, the Thundering Herd are 0-0 ATS overall and 0-0 as the home team. As for the total in Thundering Herd games, the Over-Under result this season has been 0-0 overall and 0-0 here on the home court.
Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.
- Betting Green Bay against the spread(5.5): 32%
- Betting Green Bay to win straight up(197): 27%
- Betting Marshall against the spread(-5.5): 68%
- Betting Marshall to win straight up(-235): 73%
- Betting Over the Total(167.0): 58%
- Betting Under the Total(167.0): 42%
Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".
COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICK
The Marshall Thundering Herd is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 19 documented premium wagers on Thundering Herd games in the last decade, winning 16, next to just 3 for a winning rate of 84.20% and profits of $12890.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.
Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 160.3. Together, the teams average 159.8 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 160.05, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.
To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, the power rating on the hometown Thundering Herd is 88.5 while the visiting Phoenix bring a rating of 69.5, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for Marshall is -19.
Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.
Leonard Bryant says, take the Marshall Thundering Herd -6/-114
(Record for Professional Handicapper Leonard Bryant betting on or against the Marshall Thundering Herd: 16-3/84.20%, +12890.00)
GAME NOTES: Time-change to 07:00pm EDT POWER RATINGS: MARSHALL 88.5, GREEN BAY 69.5