NCAAB Free Pick: Texas Longhorns at Texas Christian University Horned Frogs 2019-04-02

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Tuesday, April 2, 2019, 9:30 PM: This NCAAB contest has the Longhorns of Texas on the road to Fort Worth, Texas to face the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs. The home line opened at -1.5 and for those betting college basketball totals, the number is set at 137.0.

Looking at Texas Longhorns (10-18) recently, we can see they are averaging 0.0 points per game over the last 30 days while allowing 0.0. Those numbers on the road over the last month are 0.0 points for and 0.0. For the season against the spread, the Longhorns are 2-0 and on the road against the spread, the record is 1-0. The total has gone over on 2 occasions compared to 0 times under the number. As the road team, the over-under is 1-0.

Meanwhile, a recent look at the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs (28-5) over the last 30 days shows them averaging 0.0 points for and 0.0 points against per game on average while the differential here at Daniel–Meyer Coliseum over the past 30 days is 0.0-0.0. For college basketball bettors making NCAAB picks against the line, the Horned Frogs are 0-1 ATS overall and 0-1 as the home team. As for the total in Horned Frogs games, the Over-Under result this season has been 1-0 overall and 1-0 here on the home court.


Here is a quick look at the early public action on the game, which reflects overnight betting, as reported by participating sportsbooks.

  • Betting Texas against the spread(1.5): 31%
  • Betting Texas to win straight up(137): 18%
  • Betting Texas Christian University against the spread(-1.5): 69%
  • Betting Texas Christian University to win straight up(-2): 82%
  • Betting Over the Total(137.0): 23%
  • Betting Under the Total(137.0): 77%

These reports are particularly of interest to "steam" bettors and "consensus" junkies. We like to look at these numbers in contrast to the value that we see in the line. If public trends are eating at our perceived value, we prefer to get in on the games early and capture a good number, but if the trend is on the wrong side, we may prefer to wait and make our bets closer to game time to milk another half point or more out of the number.


We selected this game as a free opinion today because we do not have a premium selection on it but we have done really well betting on or against Horned Frogs games (20-7/74.10%) and we feel we have our finger on the pulse of this matchup.

This opinion all comes down to "value" or "false value" and we make that determination by looking at the point spread as it is (Texas Christian University -1.5) compared to where we feel it should be (Texas Christian University -30). From there we decide if there is any value or false value in the number by examining the public perception on the game, the early public betting trends and the situational trends in this particular matchup.

NYSE says, take the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs -2/-105
(Record for Professional Handicapper NYSE betting on or against the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs: 20-7/74.10%, +12330.00)


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