NCAAB Free Pick: Auburn Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats 2019-03-31

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The Auburn Tigers (26-9) visit Rupp Arena on Sunday, March 31, 2019, to tussle with the Kentucky Wildcats (28-6). The home line is -4.5, the total is set at 143.0 and the start time is 1:20 PM.

The Tigers have a record against the spread of 2-0 this season and are averaging 80.0 points per contest while allowing 68.4. The total has gone over the posted line 1 times while staying under the total in 1 instances.

On the other side of the court, the Wildcats have a record against the number of 1-0, averaging 76.3 points per contest while opponents score an average of 64.7 against them. The total has gone over the posted line 0 times in Wildcats games while staying under the total in 1 instances.


Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.

  • Betting Auburn against the spread(4.5): 43%
  • Betting Auburn to win straight up(180): 33%
  • Betting Kentucky against the spread(-4.5): 57%
  • Betting Kentucky to win straight up(-215): 67%
  • Betting Over the Total(143.0): 65%
  • Betting Under the Total(143.0): 35%

Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".


The Kentucky Wildcats is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 22 documented premium wagers on Wildcats games in the last decade, winning 17, next to just 5 for a winning rate of 77.30% and profits of $11640.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.

Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 156.3. Together, the teams average 133.1 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 144.7, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.

To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, the power rating on the hometown Wildcats is 94.5 while the visiting Tigers bring a rating of 89.0, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for Kentucky is -5.5.

Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.

Jason Tanner says, take the Kentucky Wildcats -5/-105
(Record for Professional Handicapper Jason Tanner betting on or against the Kentucky Wildcats: 17-5/77.30%, +11640.00)


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