NCAAB Free Pick: Purdue Boilermakers at Virginia Cavaliers 2019-03-30

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The Purdue Boilermakers (16-15) visit John Paul Jones Arena on Saturday, March 30, 2019, to tussle with the Virginia Cavaliers (24-8). The home line is -4.5, the total is set at 127.5 and the start time is 7:49 PM.

The Boilermakers have a record against the spread of 1-2 this season and are averaging 76.6 points per contest while allowing 67.0. The total has gone over the posted line 2 times while staying under the total in 1 instances.

On the other side of the court, the Cavaliers have a record against the number of 1-0, averaging 70.9 points per contest while opponents score an average of 54.8 against them. The total has gone over the posted line 0 times in Cavaliers games while staying under the total in 1 instances.

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS VS VIRGINIA CAVALIERS EARLY PUBLIC CONSENSUS REVIEW

Here is a quick look at the early public action on the game, which reflects overnight betting, as reported by participating sportsbooks.

  • Betting Purdue against the spread(4.5): 51%
  • Betting Purdue to win straight up(172): 26%
  • Betting Virginia against the spread(-4.5): 49%
  • Betting Virginia to win straight up(-205): 74%
  • Betting Over the Total(127.5): 70%
  • Betting Under the Total(127.5): 30%

These reports are particularly of interest to "steam" bettors and "consensus" junkies. We like to look at these numbers in contrast to the value that we see in the line. If public trends are eating at our perceived value, we prefer to get in on the games early and capture a good number, but if the trend is on the wrong side, we may prefer to wait and make our bets closer to game time to milk another half point or more out of the number.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICK FROM JIMMY MCGUIRE

We selected this game as a free opinion today because we do not have a premium selection on it but we have done really well betting on or against Cavaliers games (25-7/78.10%) and we feel we have our finger on the pulse of this matchup.

This opinion all comes down to "value" or "false value" and we make that determination by looking at the point spread as it is (Virginia -4.5) compared to where we feel it should be (Virginia -24.5). From there we decide if there is any value or false value in the number by examining the public perception on the game, the early public betting trends and the situational trends in this particular matchup.

Jimmy McGuire says, take the Virginia Cavaliers -5/-105
(Record for Professional Handicapper Jimmy McGuire betting on or against the Virginia Cavaliers: 25-7/78.10%, +17460.00)

GAME NOTES: POWER RATINGS: VIRGINIA 91.5, PURDUE 67.0

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