NCAAB Free Pick: Houston Cougars at Kentucky Wildcats 2019-03-29
This college basketball matchup pits the Cougars of Houston against the Kentucky Wildcats here at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky. Oddsmakers have put a line on the Wildcats of -2.0 while the total sits at 134.5. Start time is 9:57 PM.
The Houston Cougars (31-3) are averaging 76.2 points per game this season while allowing 60.8. Those numbers on the road are 75.6 points for and 62.2. Betting against the Las Vegas number, Houston is 1-0 overall and 0-0 on the road. Over the Total has won the money in 0 Cougars games while Under the total has cashed in 1 games. As the road team, it has gone over-under 0-0.
The points scoring for the Kentucky Wildcats (28-6) has averaged 76.7 points for and 64.9 points against on average while the home differential is 78.6-64.0. Against the spread, NCAAB handicappers betting on the Wildcats have gone 1-0 overall and 1-0 when listed as the home team. The Over/Under in Wildcats games has gone 0-1 overall and 0-1 on home court.
HOUSTON COUGARS VS KENTUCKY WILDCATS CONSENSUS REPORT
Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.
- Betting Houston against the spread(2.0): 57%
- Betting Houston to win straight up(120): 57%
- Betting Kentucky against the spread(-2.0): 43%
- Betting Kentucky to win straight up(-140): 43%
- Betting Over the Total(134.5): 17%
- Betting Under the Total(134.5): 83%
Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".
HOUSTON COUGARS VS KENTUCKY WILDCATS COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICK
The Kentucky Wildcats is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 24 documented premium wagers on Wildcats games in the last decade, winning 19, next to just 5 for a winning rate of 79.20% and profits of $13680.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.
Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 152.9. Together, the teams average 125.7 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 139.3, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.
To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, the power rating on the hometown Wildcats is 94.5 while the visiting Cougars bring a rating of 87.5, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for Kentucky is -7.
Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.
Winning Incorporated says, take the Kentucky Wildcats -3/-111
(Record for Professional Handicapper Winning Incorporated betting on or against the Kentucky Wildcats: 19-5/79.20%, +13680.00)
GAME NOTES: TV: TBS, DTV: 247 POWER RATINGS: KENTUCKY 94.5, HOUSTON 87.5