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NCAAB Free Pick: San Francisco Dons at North Texas Mean Green 2018-03-28

NCAAB Free Pick: San Francisco Dons at North Texas Mean Green 2018-03-28

The San Francisco Dons visit UNT Coliseum in Denton, Texas to take on the North Texas Mean Green on Wednesday, March 28, 2018, with a start time of 8:30 PM. For those making college basketball picks on the game, the home line is -3.0 , and the total has been set to 143.0.

The San Francisco Dons enter this game with a 17-14 record including a 5-8 record on the road. When it comes to betting the Dons against the spread, they hold a record of 13-20. On the road, as they are in this game, they are 7-6 against the spread. In betting the total in 31 games played, Over the total has gone 14 times while Under the total has cashed the ticket on 18 occasions. On the road, San Francisco games have gone Over/Under 7-6 respectively.

The hometown North Texas Mean Green, meanwhile, bring a record of 13-16, including a 9-7 record here in Denton. When looking at making NCAAB picks against the spread, the Mean Green hold a 17-12 record. Here at UNT Coliseum, they are 5-7 against the betting line. When looking at basketball picks on the Over/Under, North Texas has gone Over the total 12 times in 29 games played and Under the total has cashed the ticket on 16 occasions. While playing on home court, Mean Green games have gone Over the Total 6 times while the end result has fallen Under the Total 6 times.


Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.

  • Betting San Francisco against the spread(3.0): 30%
  • Betting San Francisco to win straight up(138): 41%
  • Betting North Texas against the spread(-3.0): 70%
  • Betting North Texas to win straight up(-158): 59%
  • Betting Over the Total(143.0): 48%
  • Betting Under the Total(143.0): 52%

Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".


The North Texas Mean Green is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 9 documented premium wagers on Mean Green games in the last decade, winning 7, next to just 2 for a winning rate of 77.80% and profits of $4880.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.

Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 141.1. Together, the teams average 140.5 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 140.8, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.

To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, the power rating on the hometown Mean Green is 71.0 while the visiting Dons bring a rating of 73.5, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for North Texas is 2.5.

Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.

Winning Incorporated says, take the San Francisco Dons 4/-107
(Record for Professional Handicapper Winning Incorporated betting on or against the North Texas Mean Green: 7-2/77.80%, +4880.00)


Posted on Tuesday, March 27, 2018 by Winning Incorporated
San Francisco Dons, North Texas Mean Green, College Basketball Betting, March Madness bets, NCAA wagering, NCAAB Free Picks, College Basketball Predictions, Betting College Hoops

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