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NCAAB Free Pick: West Virginia Moutaineers at Villanova Wildcats 2018-03-23

NCAAB Free Pick: West Virginia Moutaineers at Villanova Wildcats 2018-03-23

Welcome to Villanova, Pennsylvania for this tussle pitting the visiting West Virginia Moutaineers against the hometown Villanova Wildcats in the friendly confines of The Pavilion. Las Vegas oddsmakers have posted a line on the Wildcats of -5.0 and set the total at 152.5.

The West Virginia Moutaineers (22-9) are averaging 79.4 points per game this season while allowing 69.2, which has led to a record of 17-14 against the spread this season. On the road against the betting line, the record for the Moutaineers is 6-6. The number has gone over the total on 15 occasions while falling under the total 15 times. As the road team, those numbers are 4 over and 7 under.

On the other side of the court, the Wildcats of Villanova Wildcats (27-4) have averaged 86.9 points for and 70.7 points against on the season. On home court, those numbers change to 88.4-68.8. For those making college basketball picks against the spread, the Wildcats are 23-11 ATS on the season and15-6 ATS as the home team. Over the total has cashed 23 times this season in Wildcats games while under the total has paid off 10 times. The home record for Over/Under in Wildcats games is 15-5.


Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.

  • Betting West Virginia against the spread(5.0): 32%
  • Betting West Virginia to win straight up(230): 15%
  • Betting Villanova against the spread(-5.0): 68%
  • Betting Villanova to win straight up(-280): 85%
  • Betting Over the Total(152.5): 37%
  • Betting Under the Total(152.5): 63%

Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".


The Villanova Wildcats is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 10 documented premium wagers on Wildcats games in the last decade, winning 9, next to just 1 for a winning rate of 90.00% and profits of $7940.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.

Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 166.3. Together, the teams average 139.9 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 153.1, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.

To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, the power rating on the hometown Wildcats is 97.0 while the visiting Moutaineers bring a rating of 90.0, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for Villanova is -7.

Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.

Pro Consensus says, take the Villanova Wildcats -5/-106
(Record for Professional Handicapper Pro Consensus betting on or against the Villanova Wildcats: 9-1/90.00%, +7940.00)


Posted on Thursday, March 22, 2018 by Pro Consensus

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