NCAAB Free Pick: Dayton Flyers at Virginia Commonwealth Rams 2018-03-08

NCAAB Free Pick: Dayton Flyers at Virginia Commonwealth Rams 2018-03-08

The Virginia Commonwealth Rams (17-14) will meet the Dayton Flyers (14-16) here at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. in this tussle. The line on the Rams is -1.0 while the total shows at 147.5. For those looking to deliver a slam dunk with your college basketball picks today, you have come to the right place.

Playing out of the Atlantic 10, the Dayton Flyers rank number 9 in conference play. On the national stage, the Flyers currently sit at number 124 overall on the oddsmakers power ratings poll.

The Virginia Commonwealth Rams currently rank number 4 in Atlantic 10 conference play and when stacked up against all the college basketball teams in the country, they currently sit at number 108 according to national oddsmakers.


Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.

  • Betting Dayton against the spread(1.0): 26%
  • Betting Dayton to win straight up(-103): 64%
  • Betting Virginia Commonwealth against the spread(-1.0): 74%
  • Betting Virginia Commonwealth to win straight up(-117): 36%
  • Betting Over the Total(147.5): 84%
  • Betting Under the Total(147.5): 16%

Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".


The Virginia Commonwealth Rams is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 7 documented premium wagers on Rams games in the last decade, winning 7, next to just 0 for a winning rate of 100.00% and profits of $7000.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.

Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 147.7. Together, the teams average 148.4 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 148.05, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.

To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, which is considered "neutral", the power rating on the Virginia Commonwealth Rams is 75.5 while the Dayton Flyers bring a rating of 74.0, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for Virginia Commonwealth is -1.5.

Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.

Moneyball Sports says, take the Virginia Commonwealth Rams -2/-106
(Record for Professional Handicapper Moneyball Sports betting on or against the Virginia Commonwealth Rams: 7-0/100.00%, +7000.00)


Posted on Wednesday, March 7, 2018 by Moneyball Sports
Dayton Flyers, Virginia Commonwealth Rams, College Basketball Betting, March Madness bets, NCAA wagering, NCAAB Free Picks, College Basketball Predictions, Betting College Hoops

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