NCAAB Free Pick: Central Arkansas Bears at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 2018-03-08

NCAAB Free Pick: Central Arkansas Bears at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 2018-03-08

The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (21-6) will meet the Central Arkansas Bears (15-15) here at Merrell Center in Katy, Texas in this tussle. The line on the Lumberjacks is -7.0 while the total shows at 157.0. For those looking to deliver a slam dunk with your college basketball picks today, you have come to the right place.

Playing out of the Southland, the Central Arkansas Bears rank number 4 in conference play. On the national stage, the Bears currently sit at number 225 overall on the oddsmakers power ratings poll.

The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks currently rank number 1 in Southland conference play and when stacked up against all the college basketball teams in the country, they currently sit at number 124 according to national oddsmakers.

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN V CENTRAL ARKANSAS CONSENSUS REPORT

Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.

  • Betting Central Arkansas against the spread(7.0): 15%
  • Betting Central Arkansas to win straight up(266): 48%
  • Betting Stephen F. Austin against the spread(-7.0): 85%
  • Betting Stephen F. Austin to win straight up(-310): 52%
  • Betting Over the Total(157.0): 50%
  • Betting Under the Total(157.0): 50%

Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".

COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICK: CENTRAL ARKANSAS/STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 6 documented premium wagers on Lumberjacks games in the last decade, winning 6, next to just 0 for a winning rate of 100.00% and profits of $6000.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.

Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 162.8. Together, the teams average 150.3 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 156.55, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.

To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, which is considered "neutral", the power rating on the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks is 74.0 while the Central Arkansas Bears bring a rating of 67.0, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for Stephen F. Austin is -7.

Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.

Matt Moorhead says, take the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks -7/-106
(Record for Professional Handicapper Matt Moorhead betting on or against the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: 6-0/100.00%, +6000.00)

GAME NOTES: SOUTHLAND COLLEGE BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT TV: ESPN3 POWER RATINGS: STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 77.0, CENTRAL ARKANSAS 67.0

Posted on Wednesday, March 7, 2018 by Matt Moorhead


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