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NBA Free Pick: Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons 2018-03-07

NBA Free Pick: Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons 2018-03-07

Welcome to Auburn Hills, Michigan for this challenge pitting the visiting Toronto Raptors against the hometown Detroit Pistons in the friendly confines of The Palace of Auburn Hills. Las Vegas oddsmakers have posted a line on the Pistons of 5.5 and set the total at 214.5.

The Toronto Raptors (46-17) are averaging 111.8 points per game this season while allowing 103.1, which has led to a record of 36-27 against the spread this season. On the road against the betting line, the record for the Raptors is 18-13. The number has gone over the total on 32 occasions while falling under the total 31 times. As the road team, those numbers are 17 over and 14 under.

On the other side of the court, the Pistons of Detroit Pistons (29-35) have averaged 102.9 points for and 104.1 points against on the season. On home court, those numbers change to 105.0-102.5. For those making NBA basketball picks against the spread, the Pistons are 27-36 ATS on the season and13-20 ATS as the home team. Over the total has cashed 28 times this season in Pistons games while under the total has paid off 33 times. The home record for Over/Under in Pistons games is 16-16.


Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.

  • Betting Toronto against the spread(-5.5): 82%
  • Betting Toronto to win straight up(-215): 96%
  • Betting Detroit against the spread(5.5): 18%
  • Betting Detroit to win straight up(180): 4%
  • Betting Over the Total(214.5): 55%
  • Betting Under the Total(214.5): 45%

Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".


The Detroit Pistons is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 37 documented premium wagers on Pistons games in the last decade, winning 29, next to just 8 for a winning rate of 78.40% and profits of $20320.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.

Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 214.7. Together, the teams average 207.2 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 210.95, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.

To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, the power rating on the hometown Pistons is 83.5 while the visiting Raptors bring a rating of 84.0, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for Detroit is 0.5.

Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.

Pro Consensus says, take the Toronto Raptors -5/-106
(Record for Professional Handicapper Pro Consensus betting on or against the Detroit Pistons: 29-8/78.40%, +20320.00)


Posted on Tuesday, March 6, 2018 by Pro Consensus
Toronto Raptors, Detroit Pistons, NBA basketball pick, basketball tips, NBA betting advice, wagering strategies, hoops betting, bet on basketball

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