MLB Free Pick: New York Mets at Washington Nationals 2018-09-21

MLB Free Pick: New York Mets at Washington Nationals 2018-09-21

The New York Mets (70-81) visit Nationals Park on Friday, September 21, 2018, to match up with the Washington Nationals (75-74). The home line is 1.5, the total is set at 8.0 and the start time is 7:05 PM.

The New York Mets send rightie Jacob Degrom to the mound today. The 6 foot 4 inch, 180 pound right hander from DeLand, Florida will look to get the Mets the win today in this major league baseball tilt.

Meanwhile, 6 foot 3 inch, 185 pound rightie, Joe Ross, from Berkeley, California will get the start for the Washington Nationals.

The Mets have a record against the spread of 76-74 this season and are averaging 4.3 points per contest while allowing 4.5. The total has gone over the posted line 66 times while staying under the total in 74 instances.

On the other side of the field, the Nationals have a record against the number of 68-79, averaging 4.7 points per contest while opponents score an average of 4.2 against them. The total has gone over the posted line 68 times in Nationals games while staying under the total in 76 instances.

NEW YORK METS VS WASHINGTON NATIONALS CONSENSUS REPORT

Taking a look at the Sportsbook reports on game day morning, these are the reported consensus trends in betting volume from participating sportsbooks. Note that these numbers will change as more action comes in as we get closer to game time, but it is always worth a look at the morning reports just to see where the money is going.

  • Betting New York against the spread(-1.5): 85%
  • Betting New York to win straight up(-151): 69%
  • Betting Washington against the spread(1.5): 15%
  • Betting Washington to win straight up(131): 31%
  • Betting Over the Total(8.0): 24%
  • Betting Under the Total(8.0): 76%

Important to remember that the above consensus numbers are an early snapshot of public action. The Professional Handicappers League has a few professional consensus services for those looking for a consensus of expert sports picks. Personally, we like to know where the money goes early, especially looking for drastic early money on one side, which is often "smart money", whereas heavy action closer to game time is usually "square money".

NEW YORK METS VS WASHINGTON NATIONALS MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL FREE PICK

The Washington Nationals is a team we have a pretty strong read on and have had a lot of success betting or against. We have placed 131 documented premium wagers on Nationals games in the last decade, winning 93, next to just 38 for a winning rate of 71.00% and profits of $43370.00. We do not have a premium selection in this game today, but we do have a strong opinion.

Some of the factors we look at are the total points being scored by both teams, which is 9. Together, the teams average 8.7 points allowed, which gives us expected total points of 8.85, which can be compared against the over/under offered by oddsmakers for those inclined to bet on totals.

To determine the game-winner and to consider the spread in a game we can look at point differential as well, but it is wise to weigh the power rating differential even more. In this game, the power rating on the hometown Nationals is 4.3 while the visiting Mets bring a rating of 3.9, meaning, a reasonable line on this game for Washington is -0.4.

Taking everything into consideration we do have a free pick opinion on this game.

Eduardo Costa Verez says, take the Washington Nationals 0/126
(Record for Professional Handicapper Eduardo Costa Verez betting on or against the Washington Nationals: 93-38/71.00%, +43370.00)

GAME NOTES: TV: MASN2, SNY, DTV: 639, 641 POWER RATINGS: WASHINGTON 4.3, NEW YORK 3.9

Posted on Thursday, September 20, 2018 by Eduardo Costa Verez
New York Mets, Washington Nationals,


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