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Moneyline Break Even Chart

In theory, both "Heads" and "Tails" have a 50% chance of winning each flip. This 50% chance of happening is referred to as "implied probability".

If you flip a coin there are two possible outcomes; "Heads" or "Tails". There are two possible outcomes of the coin flip, with each one being just as likely as the other. In theory, both "Heads" and "Tails" have a 50% chance of winning each flip. This 50% chance of happening is referred to as "implied probability".

In this simplistic example, fans of "Tails" would require even odds (expressed as -100 on the North American Money Line) to break even on this particular bet over time. If a bettor could secure better (higher) than even odds he can make a good "value bet", whereas if the line is lower that even odds, it becomes a bad bet, or "sucker bet".

Outcomes of sporting events are not as cut and dried as coin flips, but it's still important to know the break even point for each and an implied probability (implied win%). Knowing the break even point for implied probability allows handicappers to recognize value bets when they appear. Below is a guide to a wide variety of standard moneylines and the win percentage one would have to secure to break even at them.

Money Line Break Even Table

FavoritesUnderdogs
LineWin % (implied probabilities) LineWin % (implied probabilities)
-120092.30%12007.70%
-110091.66%11008.34%
-100090.91%10009.09%
-90090%90010%
-80088.88%80011.12%
-75088.23%75011.77%
-70087.50%70012.50%
-65086.66%65013.34%
-60085.71%60014.29%
-57585.18%57514.82%
-55084.61%55015.39%
-52584%52516%
-50083.33%50016.67%
-48082.75%48017.25%
-46082.14%46017.86%
-45081.81%45018.19%
-44081.48%44018.52%
-43081.13%43018.87%
-42080.76%42019.24%
-41080.39%41019.61%
-40080%40020%
-39579.79%39520.21%
-39079.59%39020.41%
-38579.38%38520.62%
-38079.16%38020.84%
-37578.94%37521.06%
-37078.72%37021.28%
-36578.49%36521.51%
-36078.26%36021.74%
-35578.02%35521.98%
-35077.77%35022.23%
-34577.52%34522.48%
-34077.27%34022.73%
-33577.01%33522.99%
-33076.74%33023.26%
-32576.47%32523.53%
-32076.19%32023.81%
-31575.90%31524.10%
-31075.60%31024.40%
-30575.30%30524.70%
-30075%30025%
-29574.68%29525.32%
-29074.35%29025.65%
-28574.02%28525.98%
-28073.68%28026.32%
-27573.33%27526.67%
-27072.97%27027.03%
-26572.60%26527.40%
-26072.22%26027.78%
-25571.83%25528.17%
-25071.42%25028.58%
-24571.01%24528.99%
-24070.58%24029.42%
-23570.14%23529.86%
-23069.69%23030.31%
-22569.23%22530.77%
-22068.75%22031.25%
-21568.25%21531.75%
-21067.74%21032.26%
-20567.21%20532.79%
-20066.66%20033.34%
-19566.10%19533.90%
-19065.51%19034.49%
-18564.91%18535.09%
-18064.28%18035.72%
-17563.63%17536.37%
-17062.96%17037.04%
-16562.26%16537.74%
-16061.53%16038.47%
-15560.78%15539.22%
-15060%15040%
-14559.18%14540.82%
-14058.33%14041.67%
-13557.44%13542.56%
-13056.52%13043.48%
-12555.55%12544.45%
-12054.54%12045.46%
-11553.48%11546.52%
-11052.38%11047.62%
-10551.21%10548.79%
-10050%10050%

Posted on Saturday, July 9, 2016 by BG Sports

Tags: Implied Odds, Moneyline, Conversion table, value bets, sucker bets


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