NBA Betting Preview & Picks

Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls

Game Date: Sunday, March 9, 2014 | Game Time: 1:00 PM | Home Line: 4.5 | Total: 186.0

by Max Prophet

Miami Heat v Chicago Bulls Series Betting Trends

The Miami Heat travel to Chicago to play the Bulls at 1:00 PM on Sunday, March 9, 2014. Chicago is the underdog in this matchup, getting 4.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 186.0.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NBA sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Heat/Bulls Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
March 9, 2014 Miami 88Chicago954.5186.0
February 23, 2014 Chicago 79Miami93-5.5186.0
December 5, 2013 Miami 87Chicago1074.5189.0
October 29, 2013 Chicago 95Miami107-5.0187.5
May 15, 2013 Chicago 91Miami94-14.5182.0
May 13, 2013 Miami 88Chicago657.5186.5
May 10, 2013 Miami 104Chicago947.5187.0
May 8, 2013 Chicago 78Miami115-12.5186.5
May 6, 2013 Chicago 93Miami86-12.0188.0
April 14, 2013 Chicago 93Miami105

When looking at the last 76 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 51 games compared to 25 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Miami/Chicago series is 94.9 ppg while the vistor has put up 91.9 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 3 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 76 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 3 ppg. That represents a value number of 7.5 when meassured against the offered line of 4.5, suggesting a wager on Chicago makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 76 games between the Heat and the Bulls is 186.8 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 0.8 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 186.0 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Miami as the road team and with Chicago as the home team.

Recent Results when Miami visits Chicago

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
March 9, 2014 Miami 88Chicago954.5186.0
December 5, 2013 Miami 87Chicago1074.5189.0
May 13, 2013 Miami 88Chicago657.5186.5
May 10, 2013 Miami 104Chicago947.5187.0
March 27, 2013 Miami 97Chicago101
February 21, 2013 Miami 86Chicago673.0186.0
April 12, 2012 Miami 86Chicago96

When looking at the last 38 games in this series while Chicago has been the home team, we can see the Bulls have won 22 games compared to 16 wins for the Heat. Average points scored per game by Chicago in this situation is is 91.8 ppg while Miami has put up 91.8 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 0 favoring the Bulls.

Unlike most series', this one has leaned towards the road team. Specifically, the road team in this series has enjoyed an average advantage of 0 ppg. That represents a value number of 4.5 when meassured against the offered line of 4.5, suggesting a wager on the Bulls makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks betting against the number looking at the series situation in the vacuum of this trend.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 38 games between the Heat and the Bulls is 183.6 per game. That creates a differential of 2.4 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 186.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the Miami Heat Cover the Spread?

This season the Miami Heat have played 12 games, averaging 97.1 points per game, while allowing 97.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 6-6. Let's have a closer look at recent Miami Heat results.

Recent Miami Heat Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 20, 2014 (LAC) Los Angeles 110Miami93
November 17, 2014 Miami 95Brooklyn83-6.5195.5
November 16, 2014 Milwaukee 91Miami84-5.0189.5
November 14, 2014 Miami 103Atlanta114-5.0193.0
November 12, 2014 Indiana 81Miami75-8.5187.5
November 9, 2014 Miami 105Dallas96-8.0205.0
November 8, 2014 Minnesota 92Miami102-7.5205.0

This season the Miami Heat have played 5 games on the road, averaging 101.2 points per game, while allowing 97.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 3-2. Let's have a closer look at recent Miami Heat results on the road.

Recent Miami Heat Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 17, 2014 Miami 95Brooklyn83-6.5195.5
November 14, 2014 Miami 103Atlanta114-5.0193.0
November 9, 2014 Miami 105Dallas96-8.0205.0
November 5, 2014 Miami 89Charlotte96-2.0190.0
November 1, 2014 Miami 114Philadelphia969.0195.5

Can the Chicago Bulls Cover the Spread?

This season the Chicago Bulls have played 12 games, averaging 101.3 points per game, while allowing 97.6 points per game. This has led to a season record of 8-6. Let's have a closer look at recent Chicago Bulls results.

Recent Chicago Bulls Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 20, 2014 Chicago 88Sacramento103-3.0195.5
November 17, 2014 Chicago 105(LAC) Los Angeles89-7.0199.0
November 15, 2014 Indiana 99Chicago90-9.0180.5
November 13, 2014 Chicago 100Toronto93-2.5195.5
November 10, 2014 Detroit 91Chicago102-9.5190.5
November 8, 2014 Boston 106Chicago101-9.5194.0
November 7, 2014 Chicago 118Philadelphia11510.0188.5
November 5, 2014 Chicago 95Milwaukee865.0191.0
November 4, 2014 Orlando 90Chicago98-12.0190.0
November 1, 2014 Chicago 106Minnesota1052.5190.5

This season the Chicago Bulls have played 5 games here at home, averaging 99.8 points per game, while allowing 100.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 2-3. Let's have a closer look at recent Chicago Bulls results when playing at home.

Recent Chicago Bulls Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 15, 2014 Indiana 99Chicago90-9.0180.5
November 10, 2014 Detroit 91Chicago102-9.5190.5
November 8, 2014 Boston 106Chicago101-9.5194.0
November 4, 2014 Orlando 90Chicago98-12.0190.0
October 31, 2014 Cleveland 114Chicago108-4.5193.0
October 6, 2014 Washington 85Chicago81
April 29, 2014 Washington 75Chicago69-4.0183.0
April 22, 2014 Washington 101Chicago99-5.5181.5
April 20, 2014 Washington 102Chicago93-4.5178.5
April 14, 2014 Orlando 95Chicago108-11.5183.5

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