NFL Betting Preview & Picks

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers

Game Date: Monday, December 23, 2013 | Game Time: 8:40 PM | Home Line: -14.0 | Total: 46.0

by Bill Fishman

Atlanta Falcons v San Francisco 49ers Series Betting Trends

The Atlanta Falcons travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers at 8:40 PM on Monday, December 23, 2013. San Francisco is the favorite in this matchup, laying -14.0 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 46.0.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NFL sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Falcons/49ers Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 23, 2013 Atlanta 24San Francisco34-14.046.0
January 20, 2013 San Francisco 28Atlanta243.548.0
October 3, 2010 San Francisco 14Atlanta16-6.542.5
October 11, 2009 Atlanta 45San Francisco10-2.540.5
November 4, 2007 San Francisco 16Atlanta20
September 12, 2004 Atlanta 21San Francisco19
October 14, 2001 San Francisco 37Atlanta31
September 9, 2001 Atlanta 13San Francisco16
November 19, 2000 Atlanta 6San Francisco16
September 3, 2000 San Francisco 28Atlanta36

When looking at the last 35 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 22 games compared to 13 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Atlanta/San Francisco series is 25.7 ppg while the vistor has put up 23.1 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 2.6 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 35 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 2.6 ppg. That represents a value number of -11.4 when meassured against the offered line of -14.0, suggesting a wager on Atlanta makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 35 games between the Falcons and the 49ers is 48.8 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 2.8 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 46.0 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Atlanta as the road team and with San Francisco as the home team.

Recent Results when Atlanta visits San Francisco

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 23, 2013 Atlanta 24San Francisco34-14.046.0
October 11, 2009 Atlanta 45San Francisco10-2.540.5
September 12, 2004 Atlanta 21San Francisco19
September 9, 2001 Atlanta 13San Francisco16
November 19, 2000 Atlanta 6San Francisco16
December 12, 1999 Atlanta 7San Francisco26
September 27, 1998 Atlanta 20San Francisco31

When looking at the last 17 games in this series while San Francisco has been the home team, we can see the 49ers have won 13 games compared to 4 wins for the Falcons. Average points scored per game by San Francisco in this situation is is 30.8 ppg while Atlanta has put up 18.8 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 12 favoring the Falcons.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 12 ppg. That represents a value number of -2 when meassured against the offered line of -14.0, suggesting a wager on the Falcons makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 17 games between the Falcons and the 49ers is 49.6 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 3.6 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 46.0 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Can the Atlanta Falcons Cover the Spread?

This season the Atlanta Falcons have played 8 games, averaging 24.0 points per game, while allowing 27.6 points per game. This has led to a season record of 2-6. Let's have a closer look at recent Atlanta Falcons results.

Recent Atlanta Falcons Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 26, 2014 Detroit 22Atlanta213.545.5
October 19, 2014 Atlanta 7Baltimore29-6.550.0
October 12, 2014 Chicago 27Atlanta13-3.054.5
October 5, 2014 Atlanta 20New York30
September 28, 2014 Atlanta 28Minnesota413.047.5
September 18, 2014 Tampa Bay 14Atlanta56-6.545.0
September 14, 2014 Atlanta 10Cincinnati24

This season the Atlanta Falcons have played 4 games on the road, averaging 16.3 points per game, while allowing 31.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 0-4. Let's have a closer look at recent Atlanta Falcons results on the road.

Recent Atlanta Falcons Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 19, 2014 Atlanta 7Baltimore29-6.550.0
October 5, 2014 Atlanta 20New York30
September 28, 2014 Atlanta 28Minnesota413.047.5
September 14, 2014 Atlanta 10Cincinnati24
December 23, 2013 Atlanta 24San Francisco34-14.046.0

Can the San Francisco 49ers Cover the Spread?

This season the San Francisco 49ers have played 7 games, averaging 22.6 points per game, while allowing 23.6 points per game. This has led to a season record of 4-6. Let's have a closer look at recent San Francisco 49ers results.

Recent San Francisco 49ers Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 19, 2014 San Francisco 17Denver42-6.547.5
October 13, 2014 San Francisco 31St. Louis173.544.0
October 5, 2014 Kansas City 17San Francisco22-6.044.5
September 28, 2014 Philadelphia 21San Francisco26
September 21, 2014 San Francisco 14Arizona232.542.5
September 14, 2014 Chicago 28San Francisco20
September 7, 2014 San Francisco 28Dallas17
January 19, 2014 San Francisco 17Seattle23-4.040.0
January 12, 2014 San Francisco 23Carolina1041.0
January 5, 2014 San Francisco 23Green Bay203.046.0

This season the San Francisco 49ers have played 3 games here at home, averaging 22.7 points per game, while allowing 22.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 2-1. Let's have a closer look at recent San Francisco 49ers results when playing at home.

Recent San Francisco 49ers Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 5, 2014 Kansas City 17San Francisco22-6.044.5
September 28, 2014 Philadelphia 21San Francisco26
September 14, 2014 Chicago 28San Francisco20
December 23, 2013 Atlanta 24San Francisco34-14.046.0
December 8, 2013 Seattle 17San Francisco19-2.541.0
December 1, 2013 St. Louis 13San Francisco23-7.541.0
November 10, 2013 Carolina 10San Francisco9-5.543.0
October 13, 2013 Arizona 20San Francisco32-10.040.5
October 6, 2013 Houston 3San Francisco34-4.043.0
September 22, 2013 Indianapolis 27San Francisco7-10.545.5

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