NFL Betting Preview & Picks

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

Game Date: Sunday, November 3, 2013 | Game Time: 8:30 PM | Home Line: -1.0 | Total: 42.5

by Ron McCoy

Indianapolis Colts v Houston Texans Series Betting Trends

The Indianapolis Colts travel to Houston to play the Texans at 8:30 PM on Sunday, November 3, 2013. Houston is the favorite in this matchup, laying -1.0 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 42.5.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NFL sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Colts/Texans Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 15, 2013 Houston 3Indianapolis25-5.045.5
November 3, 2013 Indianapolis 27Houston24-1.042.5
December 30, 2012 Houston 16Indianapolis287.047.0
December 16, 2012 Indianapolis 17Houston29-10.547.5
December 22, 2011 Houston 16Indianapolis197.040.5
September 11, 2011 Indianapolis 7Houston34-3.5
November 1, 2010 Houston 17Indianapolis30
November 1, 2010 Houston 17Indianapolis30-5.551.0
September 12, 2010 Indianapolis 24Houston341.047.5
November 29, 2009 Indianapolis 35Houston273.047.5

When looking at the last 25 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 17 games compared to 8 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Indianapolis/Houston series is 27 ppg while the vistor has put up 20.2 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 6.8 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 25 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 6.8 ppg. That represents a value number of 5.8 when meassured against the offered line of -1.0, suggesting a wager on Houston makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 25 games between the Colts and the Texans is 47.2 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 4.7 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 42.5 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Indianapolis as the road team and with Houston as the home team.

Recent Results when Indianapolis visits Houston

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 3, 2013 Indianapolis 27Houston24-1.042.5
December 16, 2012 Indianapolis 17Houston29-10.547.5
September 11, 2011 Indianapolis 7Houston34-3.5
September 12, 2010 Indianapolis 24Houston341.047.5
November 29, 2009 Indianapolis 35Houston273.047.5
October 5, 2008 Indianapolis 31Houston27-4.0144.5
September 23, 2007 Indianapolis 30Houston24

When looking at the last 12 games in this series while Houston has been the home team, we can see the Texans have won 4 games compared to 8 wins for the Colts. Average points scored per game by Houston in this situation is is 23.3 ppg while Indianapolis has put up 24.9 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 1.6 favoring the Texans.

Unlike most series', this one has leaned towards the road team. Specifically, the road team in this series has enjoyed an average advantage of 1.6 ppg. That represents a value number of 0.6 when meassured against the offered line of -1.0, suggesting a wager on the Texans makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks betting against the number looking at the series situation in the vacuum of this trend.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 12 games between the Colts and the Texans is 48.2 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 5.7 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 42.5 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Can the Indianapolis Colts Cover the Spread?

This season the Indianapolis Colts have played 18 games, averaging 25.4 points per game, while allowing 23.5 points per game. This has led to a season record of 12-6. Let's have a closer look at recent Indianapolis Colts results.

Recent Indianapolis Colts Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 11, 2014 Indianapolis 22New England43-7.551.0
January 4, 2014 Kansas City 44Indianapolis451.547.5
December 29, 2013 Jacksonville 10Indianapolis30-10.545.0
December 22, 2013 Indianapolis 23Kansas City7-7.046.5
December 15, 2013 Houston 3Indianapolis25-5.045.5
December 8, 2013 Indianapolis 28Cincinnati42-7.043.0
December 1, 2013 Tennessee 14Indianapolis22-3.545.0

This season the Indianapolis Colts have played 9 games on the road, averaging 23.8 points per game, while allowing 23.6 points per game. This has led to a season record of 5-4. Let's have a closer look at recent Indianapolis Colts results on the road.

Recent Indianapolis Colts Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 11, 2014 Indianapolis 22New England43-7.551.0
December 22, 2013 Indianapolis 23Kansas City7-7.046.5
December 8, 2013 Indianapolis 28Cincinnati42-7.043.0
November 24, 2013 Indianapolis 11Arizona40-3.044.5
November 14, 2013 Indianapolis 30Tennessee272.542.0

Can the Houston Texans Cover the Spread?

This season the Houston Texans have played 16 games, averaging 17.3 points per game, while allowing 26.8 points per game. This has led to a season record of 2-6. Let's have a closer look at recent Houston Texans results.

Recent Houston Texans Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 29, 2013 Houston 10Tennessee16-7.044.0
December 22, 2013 Denver 37Houston1310.053.0
December 15, 2013 Houston 3Indianapolis25-5.045.5
December 5, 2013 Houston 20Jacksonville273.042.5
December 1, 2013 New England 34Houston317.548.0
November 24, 2013 Jacksonville 13Houston6-10.044.0
November 17, 2013 Oakland 28Houston23-10.041.0
November 10, 2013 Houston 24Arizona27-3.541.5
November 3, 2013 Indianapolis 27Houston24-1.042.5
October 20, 2013 Houston 16Kansas City17-7.039.5

This season the Houston Texans have played 8 games here at home, averaging 20.0 points per game, while allowing 28.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 1-7. Let's have a closer look at recent Houston Texans results when playing at home.

Recent Houston Texans Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 22, 2013 Denver 37Houston1310.053.0
December 1, 2013 New England 34Houston317.548.0
November 24, 2013 Jacksonville 13Houston6-10.044.0
November 17, 2013 Oakland 28Houston23-10.041.0
November 3, 2013 Indianapolis 27Houston24-1.042.5
October 13, 2013 St. Louis 38Houston13-7.543.0
September 29, 2013 Seattle 23Houston201.041.5
September 15, 2013 Tennessee 24Houston30-8.043.0
January 5, 2013 Cincinnati 13Houston19-4.543.0
December 23, 2012 Minnesota 23Houston6-9.545.0

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