NCAAB Betting Preview & Picks

Florida Gators vs Kentucky Wildcats

Game Date: Saturday, March 9, 2013 | Game Time: 12:00 PM | Home Line: 5.5 | Total: 132.0

by Bill Fishman

Florida Gators v Kentucky Wildcats Series Betting Trends

The Florida Gators travel to Kentucky to play the Wildcats at 12:00 PM on Saturday, March 9, 2013. Kentucky is the underdog in this matchup, getting 5.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 132.0.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NCAAB sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Gators/Wildcats Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
March 16, 2014 Kentucky 60Florida61-6.5129.5
March 8, 2014 Kentucky 65Florida84-8.5
February 15, 2014 Florida 69Kentucky59-2.5130.0
March 9, 2013 Florida 57Kentucky615.5132.0
February 12, 2013 Kentucky 52Florida69-9.5
March 10, 2012 Florida 71Kentucky74-9.0
March 4, 2012 Kentucky 74Florida594.0141.0
February 7, 2012 Florida 58Kentucky78-9.5142.0
March 13, 2011 Kentucky 70Florida54-1.5137.0
February 26, 2011 Florida 68Kentucky76-8.5136.5

When looking at the last 32 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 22 games compared to 10 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Florida/Kentucky series is 70.8 ppg while the vistor has put up 67.4 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 3.4 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 32 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 3.4 ppg. That represents a value number of 8.9 when meassured against the offered line of 5.5, suggesting a wager on Kentucky makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 32 games between the Gators and the Wildcats is 138.2 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 6.2 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 132.0 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Florida as the road team and with Kentucky as the home team.

Recent Results when Florida visits Kentucky

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
February 15, 2014 Florida 69Kentucky59-2.5130.0
March 9, 2013 Florida 57Kentucky615.5132.0
March 10, 2012 Florida 71Kentucky74-9.0
February 7, 2012 Florida 58Kentucky78-9.5142.0
February 26, 2011 Florida 68Kentucky76-8.5136.5
March 7, 2010 Florida 66Kentucky74-11.5141.5
February 10, 2009 Florida 65Kentucky68

When looking at the last 16 games in this series while Kentucky has been the home team, we can see the Wildcats have won 12 games compared to 4 wins for the Gators. Average points scored per game by Kentucky in this situation is is 70.2 ppg while Florida has put up 66.3 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 3.9 favoring the Wildcats.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 3.9 ppg. That represents a value number of 9.4 when meassured against the offered line of 5.5, suggesting a wager on the Wildcats makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 16 games between the Gators and the Wildcats is 136.5 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 4.5 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 132.0 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Can the Florida Gators Cover the Spread?

This season the Florida Gators have played 10 games, averaging 66.9 points per game, while allowing 57.6 points per game. This has led to a season record of 6-4. Let's have a closer look at recent Florida Gators results.

Recent Florida Gators Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 20, 2014 Wake Forest 50Florida63-13.0
December 12, 2014 Texas Southern 50Florida75-24.5
December 8, 2014 Yale 47Florida85-9.5116.5
December 5, 2014 Florida 65Kansas71-7.5124.0
November 28, 2014 North Carolina 75Florida645.5133.0
November 27, 2014 UAB 47Florida56-14.0124.0
November 26, 2014 Florida 65Georgetown66-1.0128.0

This season the Florida Gators have played 2 games on the road, averaging 65.0 points per game, while allowing 68.5 points per game. This has led to a season record of 0-2. Let's have a closer look at recent Florida Gators results on the road.

Recent Florida Gators Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 5, 2014 Florida 65Kansas71-7.5124.0
November 26, 2014 Florida 65Georgetown66-1.0128.0
March 4, 2014 Florida 72South Carolina4612.0
February 25, 2014 Florida 57Vanderbilt548.5
February 22, 2014 Florida 75Mississippi716.5

Can the Kentucky Wildcats Cover the Spread?

This season the Kentucky Wildcats have played 12 games, averaging 76.8 points per game, while allowing 47.5 points per game. This has led to a season record of 12-4. Let's have a closer look at recent Kentucky Wildcats results.

Recent Kentucky Wildcats Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 20, 2014 UCLA 42Kentucky83-15.5135.5
December 13, 2014 North Carolina 70Kentucky84-12.0
December 10, 2014 Columbia 46Kentucky56-26.0
December 7, 2014 E. Kentucky 49Kentucky82-25.5133.0
December 5, 2014 Texas 51Kentucky63-13.0121.5
November 30, 2014 Providence 38Kentucky58-20.0
November 25, 2014 Tex - Arlington 44Kentucky92-32.5141.5
November 23, 2014 Montana St. 28Kentucky86-39.0136.5
November 21, 2014 Boston U 65Kentucky89
November 18, 2014 Kentucky 72Kansas407.0140.0

This season the Kentucky Wildcats have played 11 games here at home, averaging 77.2 points per game, while allowing 48.2 points per game. This has led to a season record of 11-0. Let's have a closer look at recent Kentucky Wildcats results when playing at home.

Recent Kentucky Wildcats Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 20, 2014 UCLA 42Kentucky83-15.5135.5
December 13, 2014 North Carolina 70Kentucky84-12.0
December 10, 2014 Columbia 46Kentucky56-26.0
December 7, 2014 E. Kentucky 49Kentucky82-25.5133.0
December 5, 2014 Texas 51Kentucky63-13.0121.5
November 30, 2014 Providence 38Kentucky58-20.0
November 25, 2014 Tex - Arlington 44Kentucky92-32.5141.5
November 23, 2014 Montana St. 28Kentucky86-39.0136.5
November 21, 2014 Boston U 65Kentucky89
November 16, 2014 Buffalo 52Kentucky71-29.5

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