NCAAB Betting Preview & Picks

Florida Gators vs Kentucky Wildcats

Game Date: Saturday, March 9, 2013 | Game Time: 12:00 PM | Home Line: 5.5 | Total: 132.0

by Bill Fishman

Florida Gators v Kentucky Wildcats Series Betting Trends

The Florida Gators travel to Kentucky to play the Wildcats at 12:00 PM on Saturday, March 9, 2013. Kentucky is the underdog in this matchup, getting 5.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 132.0.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NCAAB sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Gators/Wildcats Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
March 16, 2014 Kentucky 60Florida61-6.5129.5
March 8, 2014 Kentucky 65Florida84-8.5
February 15, 2014 Florida 69Kentucky59-2.5130.0
March 9, 2013 Florida 57Kentucky615.5132.0
February 12, 2013 Kentucky 52Florida69-9.5
March 10, 2012 Florida 71Kentucky74-9.0
March 4, 2012 Kentucky 74Florida594.0141.0
February 7, 2012 Florida 58Kentucky78-9.5142.0
March 13, 2011 Kentucky 70Florida54-1.5137.0
February 26, 2011 Florida 68Kentucky76-8.5136.5

When looking at the last 32 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 22 games compared to 10 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Florida/Kentucky series is 70.8 ppg while the vistor has put up 67.4 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 3.4 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 32 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 3.4 ppg. That represents a value number of 8.9 when meassured against the offered line of 5.5, suggesting a wager on Kentucky makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 32 games between the Gators and the Wildcats is 138.2 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 6.2 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 132.0 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Florida as the road team and with Kentucky as the home team.

Recent Results when Florida visits Kentucky

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
February 15, 2014 Florida 69Kentucky59-2.5130.0
March 9, 2013 Florida 57Kentucky615.5132.0
March 10, 2012 Florida 71Kentucky74-9.0
February 7, 2012 Florida 58Kentucky78-9.5142.0
February 26, 2011 Florida 68Kentucky76-8.5136.5
March 7, 2010 Florida 66Kentucky74-11.5141.5
February 10, 2009 Florida 65Kentucky68

When looking at the last 16 games in this series while Kentucky has been the home team, we can see the Wildcats have won 12 games compared to 4 wins for the Gators. Average points scored per game by Kentucky in this situation is is 70.2 ppg while Florida has put up 66.3 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 3.9 favoring the Wildcats.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 3.9 ppg. That represents a value number of 9.4 when meassured against the offered line of 5.5, suggesting a wager on the Wildcats makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 16 games between the Gators and the Wildcats is 136.5 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 4.5 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 132.0 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Can the Florida Gators Cover the Spread?

This season the Florida Gators have played 19 games, averaging 66.1 points per game, while allowing 60.4 points per game. This has led to a season record of 10-9. Let's have a closer look at recent Florida Gators results.

Recent Florida Gators Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 27, 2015 Florida 52Alabama501.5123.5
January 24, 2015 Florida 71Mississippi72-3.0
January 20, 2015 LSU 79Florida61-11.0136.0
January 17, 2015 Florida 61Georgia731.5124.5
January 15, 2015 Auburn 55Florida75-15.5
January 10, 2015 Mississippi St. 47Florida72-17.5115.5
January 7, 2015 Florida 72South Carolina68-1.5

This season the Florida Gators have played 7 games on the road, averaging 64.1 points per game, while allowing 66.4 points per game. This has led to a season record of 2-5. Let's have a closer look at recent Florida Gators results on the road.

Recent Florida Gators Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 27, 2015 Florida 52Alabama501.5123.5
January 24, 2015 Florida 71Mississippi72-3.0
January 17, 2015 Florida 61Georgia731.5124.5
January 7, 2015 Florida 72South Carolina68-1.5
December 30, 2014 Florida 63Florida St.656.0126.0

Can the Kentucky Wildcats Cover the Spread?

This season the Kentucky Wildcats have played 19 games, averaging 74.6 points per game, while allowing 50.3 points per game. This has led to a season record of 19-9. Let's have a closer look at recent Kentucky Wildcats results.

Recent Kentucky Wildcats Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 24, 2015 Kentucky 58South Carolina4311.0
January 20, 2015 Vanderbilt 57Kentucky65-21.5125.5
January 17, 2015 Kentucky 70Alabama489.5119.5
January 13, 2015 Missouri 37Kentucky86-24.0127.0
January 10, 2015 Kentucky 70Texas A&M6414.5119.5
January 6, 2015 Mississippi 86Kentucky89-22.0
December 27, 2014 Kentucky 58Louisville506.0130.0
December 20, 2014 UCLA 42Kentucky83-15.5135.5
December 13, 2014 North Carolina 70Kentucky84-12.0
December 10, 2014 Columbia 46Kentucky56-26.0

This season the Kentucky Wildcats have played 14 games here at home, averaging 77.8 points per game, while allowing 50.7 points per game. This has led to a season record of 14-0. Let's have a closer look at recent Kentucky Wildcats results when playing at home.

Recent Kentucky Wildcats Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 20, 2015 Vanderbilt 57Kentucky65-21.5125.5
January 13, 2015 Missouri 37Kentucky86-24.0127.0
January 6, 2015 Mississippi 86Kentucky89-22.0
December 20, 2014 UCLA 42Kentucky83-15.5135.5
December 13, 2014 North Carolina 70Kentucky84-12.0
December 10, 2014 Columbia 46Kentucky56-26.0
December 7, 2014 Eastern Kentucky 49Kentucky82-25.5133.0
December 5, 2014 Texas 51Kentucky63-13.0121.5
November 30, 2014 Providence 38Kentucky58-20.0
November 25, 2014 Tex - Arlington 44Kentucky92-32.5141.5

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