NBA Betting Preview & Picks

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets

Game Date: Thursday, January 3, 2013 | Game Time: 9:05 PM | Home Line: -6.5 | Total: 205.0

by Max Prophet

Minnesota Timberwolves v Denver Nuggets Series Betting Trends

The Minnesota Timberwolves travel to Denver to play the Nuggets at 9:05 PM on Thursday, January 3, 2013. Denver is the favorite in this matchup, laying -6.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 205.0.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NBA sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Timberwolves/Nuggets Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
March 3, 2014 Minnesota 132Denver1285.5212.5
February 12, 2014 Denver 90Minnesota117-6.5209.0
November 27, 2013 Denver 117Minnesota110-6.5213.5
November 15, 2013 Minnesota 113Denver1171.5210.0
March 9, 2013 Minnesota 88Denver111-15.5210.0
January 3, 2013 Minnesota 101Denver97-6.5205.0
December 12, 2012 Denver 105Minnesota108-2.5198.0
November 21, 2012 Denver 101Minnesota943.5191.5
April 26, 2012 Denver 131Minnesota1028.0208.5
April 11, 2012 Minnesota 107Denver113-8.0213.5

When looking at the last 66 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 37 games compared to 29 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Minnesota/Denver series is 101.8 ppg while the vistor has put up 99.4 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 2.4 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 66 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 2.4 ppg. That represents a value number of -4.1 when meassured against the offered line of -6.5, suggesting a wager on Minnesota makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 66 games between the Timberwolves and the Nuggets is 201.2 per game. That creates a differential of 3.8 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 205.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Minnesota as the road team and with Denver as the home team.

Recent Results when Minnesota visits Denver

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
March 3, 2014 Minnesota 132Denver1285.5212.5
November 15, 2013 Minnesota 113Denver1171.5210.0
March 9, 2013 Minnesota 88Denver111-15.5210.0
January 3, 2013 Minnesota 101Denver97-6.5205.0
April 11, 2012 Minnesota 107Denver113-8.0213.5
February 20, 2012 Minnesota 101Denver103-4.0209.5
April 9, 2011 Minnesota 106Denver130-13.5212.5

When looking at the last 31 games in this series while Denver has been the home team, we can see the Nuggets have won 19 games compared to 12 wins for the Timberwolves. Average points scored per game by Denver in this situation is is 102.5 ppg while Minnesota has put up 99.3 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 3.2 favoring the Timberwolves.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 3.2 ppg. That represents a value number of -3.3 when meassured against the offered line of -6.5, suggesting a wager on the Timberwolves makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 31 games between the Timberwolves and the Nuggets is 201.8 per game. That creates a differential of 3.2 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 205.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the Minnesota Timberwolves Cover the Spread?

This season the Minnesota Timberwolves have played 80 games, averaging 107.0 points per game, while allowing 104.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 40-40. Let's have a closer look at recent Minnesota Timberwolves results.

Recent Minnesota Timberwolves Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
April 16, 2014 Utah 136Minnesota130-11.0210.0
April 14, 2014 Minnesota 120Golden St.130-7.5210.5
April 13, 2014 Minnesota 103Sacramento106-2.0204.5
April 11, 2014 Houston 110Minnesota112-1.5216.0
April 9, 2014 Chicago 102Minnesota872.5192.5
April 8, 2014 San Antonio 91Minnesota110
April 4, 2014 Minnesota 122Miami121-8.5203.0

This season the Minnesota Timberwolves have played 40 games on the road, averaging 106.2 points per game, while allowing 106.9 points per game. This has led to a season record of 16-24. Let's have a closer look at recent Minnesota Timberwolves results on the road.

Recent Minnesota Timberwolves Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
April 14, 2014 Minnesota 120Golden St.130-7.5210.5
April 13, 2014 Minnesota 103Sacramento106-2.0204.5
April 4, 2014 Minnesota 122Miami121-8.5203.0
March 30, 2014 Minnesota 99Brooklyn114-4.0211.0
March 24, 2014 Minnesota 92Memphis109

Can the Denver Nuggets Cover the Spread?

This season the Denver Nuggets have played 82 games, averaging 104.4 points per game, while allowing 106.5 points per game. This has led to a season record of 36-40. Let's have a closer look at recent Denver Nuggets results.

Recent Denver Nuggets Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
April 16, 2014 Golden St. 116Denver112-8.5209.0
April 15, 2014 Denver 105(LAC) Los Angeles117-10.0219.5
April 12, 2014 Utah 94Denver101-9.5211.5
April 10, 2014 Denver 100Golden St.99-12.0216.0
April 9, 2014 Houston 116Denver1231.5222.5
April 6, 2014 Denver 125Houston130-10.5222.0
April 4, 2014 Denver 92Memphis100-9.0200.5
April 2, 2014 New Orleans 107Denver137-3.5209.0
March 31, 2014 Memphis 94Denver925.0201.5
March 28, 2014 San Antonio 133Denver1026.5215.5

This season the Denver Nuggets have played 41 games here at home, averaging 106.0 points per game, while allowing 105.1 points per game. This has led to a season record of 22-19. Let's have a closer look at recent Denver Nuggets results when playing at home.

Recent Denver Nuggets Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
April 16, 2014 Golden St. 116Denver112-8.5209.0
April 12, 2014 Utah 94Denver101-9.5211.5
April 9, 2014 Houston 116Denver1231.5222.5
April 2, 2014 New Orleans 107Denver137-3.5209.0
March 31, 2014 Memphis 94Denver925.0201.5
March 28, 2014 San Antonio 133Denver1026.5215.5
March 23, 2014 Washington 102Denver105-1.5213.5
March 19, 2014 Detroit 109Denver118-7.0219.0
March 17, 2014 (LAC) Los Angeles 100Denver1104.0216.5
March 7, 2014 (LAK) Los Angeles 126Denver134

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