NBA Betting Preview & Picks

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets

Game Date: Thursday, January 3, 2013 | Game Time: 9:05 PM | Home Line: -6.5 | Total: 205.0

by Max Prophet

Minnesota Timberwolves v Denver Nuggets Series Betting Trends

The Minnesota Timberwolves travel to Denver to play the Nuggets at 9:05 PM on Thursday, January 3, 2013. Denver is the favorite in this matchup, laying -6.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 205.0.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NBA sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Timberwolves/Nuggets Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 17, 2015 Minnesota 113Denver105-11.5211.5
January 5, 2015 Denver 110Minnesota1013.5208.5
December 26, 2014 Minnesota 102Denver106-10.0212.5
March 3, 2014 Minnesota 132Denver1285.5212.5
February 12, 2014 Denver 90Minnesota117-6.5209.0
November 27, 2013 Denver 117Minnesota110-6.5213.5
November 15, 2013 Minnesota 113Denver1171.5210.0
March 9, 2013 Minnesota 88Denver111-15.5210.0
January 3, 2013 Minnesota 101Denver97-6.5205.0
December 12, 2012 Denver 105Minnesota108-2.5198.0

When looking at the last 69 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 38 games compared to 31 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Minnesota/Denver series is 101.9 ppg while the vistor has put up 99.8 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 2.1 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 69 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 2.1 ppg. That represents a value number of -4.4 when meassured against the offered line of -6.5, suggesting a wager on Minnesota makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 69 games between the Timberwolves and the Nuggets is 201.7 per game. That creates a differential of 3.3 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 205.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Minnesota as the road team and with Denver as the home team.

Recent Results when Minnesota visits Denver

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 17, 2015 Minnesota 113Denver105-11.5211.5
December 26, 2014 Minnesota 102Denver106-10.0212.5
March 3, 2014 Minnesota 132Denver1285.5212.5
November 15, 2013 Minnesota 113Denver1171.5210.0
March 9, 2013 Minnesota 88Denver111-15.5210.0
January 3, 2013 Minnesota 101Denver97-6.5205.0
April 11, 2012 Minnesota 107Denver113-8.0213.5

When looking at the last 33 games in this series while Denver has been the home team, we can see the Nuggets have won 20 games compared to 13 wins for the Timberwolves. Average points scored per game by Denver in this situation is is 102.7 ppg while Minnesota has put up 99.8 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 2.9 favoring the Timberwolves.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 2.9 ppg. That represents a value number of -3.6 when meassured against the offered line of -6.5, suggesting a wager on the Timberwolves makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 33 games between the Timberwolves and the Nuggets is 202.5 per game. That creates a differential of 2.5 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 205.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the Minnesota Timberwolves Cover the Spread?

This season the Minnesota Timberwolves have played 44 games, averaging 97.3 points per game, while allowing 107.2 points per game. This has led to a season record of 7-37. Let's have a closer look at recent Minnesota Timberwolves results.

Recent Minnesota Timberwolves Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 26, 2015 Minnesota 84Oklahoma City92-13.5207.5
January 25, 2015 Minnesota 100Atlanta112-17.5200.5
January 23, 2015 New Orleans 92Minnesota846.0196.5
January 21, 2015 Dallas 98Minnesota759.5214.5
January 19, 2015 Minnesota 80Charlotte105-5.0194.0
January 17, 2015 Minnesota 113Denver105-11.5211.5
January 16, 2015 Minnesota 99Phoenix110-13.5216.5

This season the Minnesota Timberwolves have played 23 games on the road, averaging 99.0 points per game, while allowing 110.6 points per game. This has led to a season record of 4-19. Let's have a closer look at recent Minnesota Timberwolves results on the road.

Recent Minnesota Timberwolves Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 26, 2015 Minnesota 84Oklahoma City92-13.5207.5
January 25, 2015 Minnesota 100Atlanta112-17.5200.5
January 19, 2015 Minnesota 80Charlotte105-5.0194.0
January 17, 2015 Minnesota 113Denver105-11.5211.5
January 16, 2015 Minnesota 99Phoenix110-13.5216.5

Can the Denver Nuggets Cover the Spread?

This season the Denver Nuggets have played 45 games, averaging 101.8 points per game, while allowing 104.5 points per game. This has led to a season record of 18-37. Let's have a closer look at recent Denver Nuggets results.

Recent Denver Nuggets Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 26, 2015 Denver 98(LAC) Los Angeles102-14.0214.5
January 25, 2015 Washington 117Denver1153.5203.5
January 23, 2015 Boston 100Denver99-6.5204.5
January 20, 2015 San Antonio 109Denver999.0204.0
January 19, 2015 Denver 79Golden St.122-13.5219.5
January 17, 2015 Minnesota 113Denver105-11.5211.5
January 16, 2015 Denver 89Dallas97-8.0215.5
January 14, 2015 Dallas 107Denver114-1.0214.5
January 9, 2015 Denver 118Sacramento108-3.5212.0
January 7, 2015 Orlando 90Denver93-7.0201.0

This season the Denver Nuggets have played 24 games here at home, averaging 104.6 points per game, while allowing 102.6 points per game. This has led to a season record of 12-12. Let's have a closer look at recent Denver Nuggets results when playing at home.

Recent Denver Nuggets Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 25, 2015 Washington 117Denver1153.5203.5
January 23, 2015 Boston 100Denver99-6.5204.5
January 20, 2015 San Antonio 109Denver999.0204.0
January 17, 2015 Minnesota 113Denver105-11.5211.5
January 14, 2015 Dallas 107Denver114-1.0214.5
January 7, 2015 Orlando 90Denver93-7.0201.0
January 3, 2015 Memphis 85Denver114-1.0202.5
December 30, 2014 (LAK) Los Angeles 111Denver103-6.5215.5
December 28, 2014 Toronto 116Denver1022.5213.5
December 26, 2014 Minnesota 102Denver106-10.0212.5

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