NBA Betting Preview & Picks

Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns

Game Date: Thursday, December 6, 2012 | Game Time: 10:35 PM | Home Line: -3.0 | Total: 199.5

by Max Prophet

Dallas Mavericks v Phoenix Suns Series Betting Trends

The Dallas Mavericks travel to Phoenix to play the Suns at 10:35 PM on Thursday, December 6, 2012. Phoenix is the favorite in this matchup, laying -3.0 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 199.5.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NBA sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Mavericks/Suns Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
April 12, 2014 Phoenix 98Dallas101-4.5210.0
January 17, 2014 Dallas 110Phoenix1071.5210.0
December 21, 2013 Dallas 108Phoenix123-2.5208.5
April 10, 2013 Phoenix 102Dallas91-13.5204.5
February 1, 2013 Dallas 109Phoenix99-3.5199.0
January 27, 2013 Phoenix 95Dallas110-8.0202.5
December 6, 2012 Dallas 97Phoenix94-3.0199.5
March 8, 2012 Dallas 94Phoenix963.5192.5
January 30, 2012 Dallas 122Phoenix992.5186.5
January 23, 2012 Phoenix 87Dallas93-5.5183.0

When looking at the last 68 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 42 games compared to 26 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Dallas/Phoenix series is 107.4 ppg while the vistor has put up 102.7 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 4.7 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 68 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 4.7 ppg. That represents a value number of 1.7 when meassured against the offered line of -3.0, suggesting a wager on Phoenix makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 68 games between the Mavericks and the Suns is 210.1 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 10.6 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 199.5 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Dallas as the road team and with Phoenix as the home team.

Recent Results when Dallas visits Phoenix

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 17, 2014 Dallas 110Phoenix1071.5210.0
December 21, 2013 Dallas 108Phoenix123-2.5208.5
February 1, 2013 Dallas 109Phoenix99-3.5199.0
December 6, 2012 Dallas 97Phoenix94-3.0199.5
March 8, 2012 Dallas 94Phoenix963.5192.5
January 30, 2012 Dallas 122Phoenix992.5186.5
March 27, 2011 Dallas 91Phoenix832.0207.5

When looking at the last 34 games in this series while Phoenix has been the home team, we can see the Suns have won 17 games compared to 17 wins for the Mavericks. Average points scored per game by Phoenix in this situation is is 106.6 ppg while Dallas has put up 103 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 3.6 favoring the Suns.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 3.6 ppg. That represents a value number of 0.6 when meassured against the offered line of -3.0, suggesting a wager on the Suns makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 34 games between the Mavericks and the Suns is 209.6 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 10.1 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 199.5 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Can the Dallas Mavericks Cover the Spread?

This season the Dallas Mavericks have played 14 games, averaging 109.9 points per game, while allowing 98.8 points per game. This has led to a season record of 10-4. Let's have a closer look at recent Dallas Mavericks results.

Recent Dallas Mavericks Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 22, 2014 Dallas 92Houston954.0205.0
November 21, 2014 (LAK) Los Angeles 106Dallas140-9.0217.0
November 19, 2014 Dallas 105Washington1022.5202.5
November 17, 2014 Dallas 107Charlotte803.5199.0
November 15, 2014 Minnesota 117Dallas131-11.5211.0
November 13, 2014 Philadelphia 70Dallas123-13.5210.5
November 11, 2014 Sacramento 98Dallas106-7.5205.5

This season the Dallas Mavericks have played 7 games on the road, averaging 100.7 points per game, while allowing 96.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 4-3. Let's have a closer look at recent Dallas Mavericks results on the road.

Recent Dallas Mavericks Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 22, 2014 Dallas 92Houston954.0205.0
November 19, 2014 Dallas 105Washington1022.5202.5
November 17, 2014 Dallas 107Charlotte803.5199.0
November 7, 2014 Dallas 105Utah822.5206.0
November 6, 2014 Dallas 87Portland108-2.0208.5

Can the Phoenix Suns Cover the Spread?

This season the Phoenix Suns have played 14 games, averaging 105.3 points per game, while allowing 102.1 points per game. This has led to a season record of 9-4. Let's have a closer look at recent Phoenix Suns results.

Recent Phoenix Suns Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 22, 2014 Phoenix 106Indiana832.0196.0
November 21, 2014 Phoenix 122Philadelphia969.5206.5
November 19, 2014 Phoenix 88Detroit862.5204.5
November 17, 2014 Phoenix 118Boston1142.0215.0
November 15, 2014 Phoenix 107(LAC) Los Angeles120-7.0210.5
November 14, 2014 Charlotte 103Phoenix95-7.5200.0
November 12, 2014 Brooklyn 104Phoenix112-4.5207.5
November 9, 2014 Golden St. 95Phoenix107-1.5209.0
November 7, 2014 Sacramento 114Phoenix112-5.0208.0
November 5, 2014 Memphis 102Phoenix91-1.5192.0

This season the Phoenix Suns have played 7 games here at home, averaging 104.3 points per game, while allowing 100.9 points per game. This has led to a season record of 4-3. Let's have a closer look at recent Phoenix Suns results when playing at home.

Recent Phoenix Suns Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 14, 2014 Charlotte 103Phoenix95-7.5200.0
November 12, 2014 Brooklyn 104Phoenix112-4.5207.5
November 9, 2014 Golden St. 95Phoenix107-1.5209.0
November 7, 2014 Sacramento 114Phoenix112-5.0208.0
November 5, 2014 Memphis 102Phoenix91-1.5192.0
October 31, 2014 San Antonio 89Phoenix941.5205.0
October 29, 2014 (LAK) Los Angeles 99Phoenix119-12.0208.0
April 14, 2014 Memphis 97Phoenix91-3.0194.5
April 6, 2014 Oklahoma City 115Phoenix1222.5210.5
April 2, 2014 (LAC) Los Angeles 112Phoenix108-3.0212.0

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