NFL Betting Preview & Picks

Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Game Date: Monday, November 12, 2012 | Game Time: 8:35 PM | Home Line: -12.5 | Total: 40.5

by Bill Fishman

Kansas City Chiefs v Pittsburgh Steelers Series Betting Trends

The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers at 8:35 PM on Monday, November 12, 2012. Pittsburgh is the favorite in this matchup, laying -12.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 40.5.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NFL sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Chiefs/Steelers Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 12, 2012 Kansas City 13Pittsburgh16-12.540.5
November 27, 2011 Pittsburgh 13Kansas City910.541.5
November 22, 2009 Pittsburgh 24Kansas City2710.540.0
October 15, 2006 Kansas City 7Pittsburgh45
September 14, 2003 Pittsburgh 20Kansas City41
October 14, 2001 Pittsburgh 20Kansas City17
December 19, 1999 Pittsburgh 19Kansas City35
October 24, 1998 Pittsburgh 20Kansas City13
November 2, 1997 Pittsburgh 10Kansas City13
November 7, 1996 Pittsburgh 17Kansas City7

When looking at the last 15 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 9 games compared to 6 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Kansas City/Pittsburgh series is 20.4 ppg while the vistor has put up 17.9 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 2.5 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 15 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 2.5 ppg. That represents a value number of -10 when meassured against the offered line of -12.5, suggesting a wager on Kansas City makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 15 games between the Chiefs and the Steelers is 38.3 per game. That creates a differential of 2.2 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 40.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Kansas City as the road team and with Pittsburgh as the home team.

Recent Results when Kansas City visits Pittsburgh

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 12, 2012 Kansas City 13Pittsburgh16-12.540.5
October 15, 2006 Kansas City 7Pittsburgh45
December 17, 1989 Kansas City 17Pittsburgh23
November 20, 1988 Kansas City 10Pittsburgh16

When looking at the last 4 games in this series while Pittsburgh has been the home team, we can see the Steelers have won 4 games compared to 0 wins for the Chiefs. Average points scored per game by Pittsburgh in this situation is is 25 ppg while Kansas City has put up 11.8 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 13.2 favoring the Steelers.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 13.2 ppg. That represents a value number of 0.7 when meassured against the offered line of -12.5, suggesting a wager on the Steelers makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 4 games between the Chiefs and the Steelers is 36.8 per game. That creates a differential of 3.7 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 40.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the Kansas City Chiefs Cover the Spread?

This season the Kansas City Chiefs have played 17 games, averaging 27.9 points per game, while allowing 20.6 points per game. This has led to a season record of 11-6. Let's have a closer look at recent Kansas City Chiefs results.

Recent Kansas City Chiefs Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 4, 2014 Kansas City 44Indianapolis451.547.5
December 29, 2013 Kansas City 24San Diego27-8.046.0
December 22, 2013 Indianapolis 23Kansas City7-7.046.5
December 15, 2013 Kansas City 56Oakland316.044.0
December 8, 2013 Kansas City 45Washington103.544.0
December 1, 2013 Denver 35Kansas City286.049.5
November 24, 2013 San Diego 41Kansas City38-3.542.5

This season the Kansas City Chiefs have played 9 games on the road, averaging 32.1 points per game, while allowing 20.9 points per game. This has led to a season record of 6-3. Let's have a closer look at recent Kansas City Chiefs results on the road.

Recent Kansas City Chiefs Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 4, 2014 Kansas City 44Indianapolis451.547.5
December 29, 2013 Kansas City 24San Diego27-8.046.0
December 15, 2013 Kansas City 56Oakland316.044.0
December 8, 2013 Kansas City 45Washington103.544.0
November 17, 2013 Kansas City 17Denver27-7.549.0

Can the Pittsburgh Steelers Cover the Spread?

This season the Pittsburgh Steelers have played 16 games, averaging 23.7 points per game, while allowing 23.1 points per game. This has led to a season record of 8-6. Let's have a closer look at recent Pittsburgh Steelers results.

Recent Pittsburgh Steelers Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 29, 2013 Cleveland 7Pittsburgh20-7.543.0
December 22, 2013 Pittsburgh 38Green Bay311.043.5
December 15, 2013 Cincinnati 20Pittsburgh302.044.0
December 8, 2013 Miami 34Pittsburgh28-3.040.5
November 28, 2013 Pittsburgh 20Baltimore22-3.040.5
November 24, 2013 Pittsburgh 27Cleveland11-1.039.5
November 17, 2013 Detroit 27Pittsburgh371.045.5
November 10, 2013 Buffalo 10Pittsburgh23-3.043.0
November 3, 2013 Pittsburgh 31New England55-6.042.5
October 27, 2013 Pittsburgh 18Oakland211.040.5

This season the Pittsburgh Steelers have played 8 games here at home, averaging 23.6 points per game, while allowing 21.3 points per game. This has led to a season record of 5-3. Let's have a closer look at recent Pittsburgh Steelers results when playing at home.

Recent Pittsburgh Steelers Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 29, 2013 Cleveland 7Pittsburgh20-7.543.0
December 15, 2013 Cincinnati 20Pittsburgh302.044.0
December 8, 2013 Miami 34Pittsburgh28-3.040.5
November 17, 2013 Detroit 27Pittsburgh371.045.5
November 10, 2013 Buffalo 10Pittsburgh23-3.043.0
October 20, 2013 Baltimore 16Pittsburgh19-1.041.0
September 22, 2013 Chicago 40Pittsburgh231.041.0
September 8, 2013 Tennessee 16Pittsburgh9-6.042.0
December 30, 2012 Cleveland 10Pittsburgh24
December 23, 2012 Cincinnati 13Pittsburgh10-3.542.5

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