NFL Betting Preview & Picks

Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Game Date: Monday, November 12, 2012 | Game Time: 8:35 PM | Home Line: -12.5 | Total: 40.5

by Bill Fishman

Kansas City Chiefs v Pittsburgh Steelers Series Betting Trends

The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers at 8:35 PM on Monday, November 12, 2012. Pittsburgh is the favorite in this matchup, laying -12.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 40.5.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NFL sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Chiefs/Steelers Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 21, 2014 Kansas City 12Pittsburgh20-2.549.5
November 12, 2012 Kansas City 13Pittsburgh16-12.540.5
November 27, 2011 Pittsburgh 13Kansas City910.541.5
November 22, 2009 Pittsburgh 24Kansas City2710.540.0
October 15, 2006 Kansas City 7Pittsburgh45
September 14, 2003 Pittsburgh 20Kansas City41
October 14, 2001 Pittsburgh 20Kansas City17
December 19, 1999 Pittsburgh 19Kansas City35
October 24, 1998 Pittsburgh 20Kansas City13
November 2, 1997 Pittsburgh 10Kansas City13

When looking at the last 16 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 10 games compared to 6 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Kansas City/Pittsburgh series is 20.4 ppg while the vistor has put up 17.6 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 2.8 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 16 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 2.8 ppg. That represents a value number of -9.7 when meassured against the offered line of -12.5, suggesting a wager on Kansas City makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 16 games between the Chiefs and the Steelers is 38 per game. That creates a differential of 2.5 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 40.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Kansas City as the road team and with Pittsburgh as the home team.

Recent Results when Kansas City visits Pittsburgh

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 21, 2014 Kansas City 12Pittsburgh20-2.549.5
November 12, 2012 Kansas City 13Pittsburgh16-12.540.5
October 15, 2006 Kansas City 7Pittsburgh45
December 17, 1989 Kansas City 17Pittsburgh23
November 20, 1988 Kansas City 10Pittsburgh16

When looking at the last 5 games in this series while Pittsburgh has been the home team, we can see the Steelers have won 5 games compared to 0 wins for the Chiefs. Average points scored per game by Pittsburgh in this situation is is 24 ppg while Kansas City has put up 11.8 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 12.2 favoring the Chiefs.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 12.2 ppg. That represents a value number of -0.3 when meassured against the offered line of -12.5, suggesting a wager on the Chiefs makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 5 games between the Chiefs and the Steelers is 35.8 per game. That creates a differential of 4.7 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 40.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the Kansas City Chiefs Cover the Spread?

This season the Kansas City Chiefs have played 16 games, averaging 22.1 points per game, while allowing 17.6 points per game. This has led to a season record of 9-7. Let's have a closer look at recent Kansas City Chiefs results.

Recent Kansas City Chiefs Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 28, 2014 San Diego 7Kansas City19-3.042.5
December 21, 2014 Kansas City 12Pittsburgh20-2.549.5
December 14, 2014 Oakland 13Kansas City31-10.541.5
December 7, 2014 Kansas City 14Arizona172.540.0
November 30, 2014 Denver 29Kansas City16-1.049.0
November 20, 2014 Kansas City 20Oakland247.542.5
November 16, 2014 Seattle 20Kansas City24-1.043.5

This season the Kansas City Chiefs have played 8 games on the road, averaging 19.3 points per game, while allowing 19.4 points per game. This has led to a season record of 3-5. Let's have a closer look at recent Kansas City Chiefs results on the road.

Recent Kansas City Chiefs Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 21, 2014 Kansas City 12Pittsburgh20-2.549.5
December 7, 2014 Kansas City 14Arizona172.540.0
November 20, 2014 Kansas City 20Oakland247.542.5
November 9, 2014 Kansas City 17Buffalo131.541.0
October 19, 2014 Kansas City 23San Diego20-3.545.0

Can the Pittsburgh Steelers Cover the Spread?

This season the Pittsburgh Steelers have played 17 games, averaging 26.6 points per game, while allowing 23.4 points per game. This has led to a season record of 11-7. Let's have a closer look at recent Pittsburgh Steelers results.

Recent Pittsburgh Steelers Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 3, 2015 Baltimore 30Pittsburgh17-3.046.0
December 28, 2014 Cincinnati 17Pittsburgh27-3.548.0
December 21, 2014 Kansas City 12Pittsburgh20-2.549.5
December 14, 2014 Pittsburgh 27Atlanta202.555.0
December 7, 2014 Pittsburgh 42Cincinnati21-3.048.0
November 30, 2014 New Orleans 35Pittsburgh32-4.055.0
November 17, 2014 Pittsburgh 27Tennessee247.046.0
November 9, 2014 Pittsburgh 13New York203.547.5
November 2, 2014 Baltimore 23Pittsburgh43-1.547.0
October 26, 2014 Indianapolis 34Pittsburgh513.549.0

This season the Pittsburgh Steelers have played 9 games here at home, averaging 30.4 points per game, while allowing 25.3 points per game. This has led to a season record of 6-3. Let's have a closer look at recent Pittsburgh Steelers results when playing at home.

Recent Pittsburgh Steelers Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 3, 2015 Baltimore 30Pittsburgh17-3.046.0
December 28, 2014 Cincinnati 17Pittsburgh27-3.548.0
December 21, 2014 Kansas City 12Pittsburgh20-2.549.5
November 30, 2014 New Orleans 35Pittsburgh32-4.055.0
November 2, 2014 Baltimore 23Pittsburgh43-1.547.0
October 26, 2014 Indianapolis 34Pittsburgh513.549.0
October 20, 2014 Houston 23Pittsburgh30-3.044.0
September 28, 2014 Tampa Bay 27Pittsburgh24
September 7, 2014 Cleveland 27Pittsburgh30
December 29, 2013 Cleveland 7Pittsburgh20-7.543.0

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