NCAAF Betting Preview & Picks

UL - Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas St. Red Wolves

Game Date: Thursday, November 8, 2012 | Game Time: 7:00 PM | Home Line: -7.0 | Total: 59.5

by Campus Sports

UL - Monroe Warhawks v Arkansas St. Red Wolves Series Betting Trends

The UL - Monroe Warhawks travel to Arkansas St. to play the Red Wolves at 7:00 PM on Thursday, November 8, 2012. Arkansas St. is the favorite in this matchup, laying -7.0 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 59.5.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NCAAF sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Warhawks/Red Wolves Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 4, 2014 UL - Monroe 14Arkansas St.28-10.551.5
November 9, 2013 Arkansas St. 42UL - Monroe14-3.555.0
November 8, 2012 UL - Monroe 23Arkansas St.45-7.059.5
October 8, 2011 Arkansas St. 24UL - Monroe192.555.0
September 18, 2010 UL - Monroe 20Arkansas St.34-4.051.5
October 13, 2009 Arkansas St. 10UL - Monroe16-2.553.0
October 11, 2008 UL - Monroe 29Arkansas St.37-14.555.0
October 7, 2006 UL - Monroe 6Arkansas St.10
October 1, 2005 Arkansas St. 27UL - Monroe31
September 25, 2004 Arkansas St. 28UL - Monroe21

When looking at the last 13 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 8 games compared to 5 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the UL - Monroe/Arkansas St. series is 25.2 ppg while the vistor has put up 24.1 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 1.1 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 13 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 1.1 ppg. That represents a value number of -5.9 when meassured against the offered line of -7.0, suggesting a wager on UL - Monroe makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 13 games between the Warhawks and the Red Wolves is 49.3 per game. That creates a differential of 10.2 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 59.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with UL - Monroe as the road team and with Arkansas St. as the home team.

Recent Results when UL - Monroe visits Arkansas St.

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 4, 2014 UL - Monroe 14Arkansas St.28-10.551.5
November 8, 2012 UL - Monroe 23Arkansas St.45-7.059.5
September 18, 2010 UL - Monroe 20Arkansas St.34-4.051.5
October 11, 2008 UL - Monroe 29Arkansas St.37-14.555.0
October 7, 2006 UL - Monroe 6Arkansas St.10
October 4, 2003 UL - Monroe 41Arkansas St.44
November 17, 2001 UL - Monroe 16Arkansas St.7

When looking at the last 7 games in this series while Arkansas St. has been the home team, we can see the Red Wolves have won 6 games compared to 1 wins for the Warhawks. Average points scored per game by Arkansas St. in this situation is is 29.3 ppg while UL - Monroe has put up 21.3 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 8 favoring the Red Wolves.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 8 ppg. That represents a value number of 1 when meassured against the offered line of -7.0, suggesting a wager on the Red Wolves makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 7 games between the Warhawks and the Red Wolves is 50.6 per game. That creates a differential of 8.9 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 59.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the UL - Monroe Warhawks Cover the Spread?

This season the UL - Monroe Warhawks have played 11 games, averaging 20.5 points per game, while allowing 26.6 points per game. This has led to a season record of 4-7. Let's have a closer look at recent UL - Monroe Warhawks results.

Recent UL - Monroe Warhawks Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 22, 2014 UL - Monroe 30New Mexico St.175.556.0
November 15, 2014 UL - Lafayette 34UL - Monroe277.051.5
November 8, 2014 UL - Monroe 29Appalachian St.31-4.053.0
November 1, 2014 UL - Monroe 16Texas A&M21-32.060.0
October 25, 2014 Texas State 22UL - Monroe18-2.050.0
October 11, 2014 UL - Monroe 14Kentucky48-21.049.5
October 4, 2014 UL - Monroe 14Arkansas St.28-10.551.5

This season the UL - Monroe Warhawks have played 6 games on the road, averaging 17.2 points per game, while allowing 29.3 points per game. This has led to a season record of 1-5. Let's have a closer look at recent UL - Monroe Warhawks results on the road.

Recent UL - Monroe Warhawks Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 22, 2014 UL - Monroe 30New Mexico St.175.556.0
November 8, 2014 UL - Monroe 29Appalachian St.31-4.053.0
November 1, 2014 UL - Monroe 16Texas A&M21-32.060.0
October 11, 2014 UL - Monroe 14Kentucky48-21.049.5
October 4, 2014 UL - Monroe 14Arkansas St.28-10.551.5

Can the Arkansas St. Red Wolves Cover the Spread?

This season the Arkansas St. Red Wolves have played 11 games, averaging 33.2 points per game, while allowing 27.1 points per game. This has led to a season record of 6-7. Let's have a closer look at recent Arkansas St. Red Wolves results.

Recent Arkansas St. Red Wolves Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 20, 2014 Arkansas St. 27Texas State456.058.5
November 15, 2014 Appalachian St. 37Arkansas St.32-14.563.5
November 8, 2014 South Alabama 10Arkansas St.45-10.052.5
November 1, 2014 Arkansas St. 44Idaho2815.065.0
October 21, 2014 Arkansas St. 40UL - Lafayette552.555.5
October 11, 2014 Arkansas St. 52Georgia St.1010.065.5
October 4, 2014 UL - Monroe 14Arkansas St.28-10.551.5
September 20, 2014 Utah St. 14Arkansas St.21-1.546.0
September 13, 2014 Arkansas St. 20Miami - FL41-16.553.0
September 6, 2014 Arkansas St. 19Tennessee34-16.059.5

This season the Arkansas St. Red Wolves have played 5 games here at home, averaging 32.6 points per game, while allowing 17.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 4-1. Let's have a closer look at recent Arkansas St. Red Wolves results when playing at home.

Recent Arkansas St. Red Wolves Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 15, 2014 Appalachian St. 37Arkansas St.32-14.563.5
November 8, 2014 South Alabama 10Arkansas St.45-10.052.5
October 4, 2014 UL - Monroe 14Arkansas St.28-10.551.5
September 20, 2014 Utah St. 14Arkansas St.21-1.546.0
August 30, 2014 Montana State 10Arkansas St.37
November 23, 2013 Georgia St. 33Arkansas St.35-24.057.5
November 16, 2013 Texas State 21Arkansas St.38-7.051.5
October 22, 2013 UL - Lafayette 23Arkansas St.72.568.0
October 12, 2013 Idaho 24Arkansas St.48-26.562.5
September 12, 2013 Troy St. 34Arkansas St.41-7.066.5

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