NFL Betting Preview & Picks

Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons

Game Date: Sunday, November 4, 2012 | Game Time: 9:30 PM | Home Line: -4.5 | Total: 47.0

by Redneck Underground

Dallas Cowboys v Atlanta Falcons Series Betting Trends

The Dallas Cowboys travel to Atlanta to play the Falcons at 9:30 PM on Sunday, November 4, 2012. Atlanta is the favorite in this matchup, laying -4.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 47.0.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NFL sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Cowboys/Falcons Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 4, 2012 Dallas 13Atlanta19-4.547.0
October 25, 2009 Atlanta 21Dallas37-4.547.5
December 16, 2006 Dallas 38Atlanta28
September 7, 2003 Atlanta 27Dallas13
August 24, 2002 Atlanta 21Dallas19
November 11, 2001 Dallas 13Atlanta20
February 20, 1999 Atlanta 7Dallas24
November 20, 1996 Atlanta 28Dallas32
October 29, 1995 Dallas 28Atlanta13
November 21, 1993 Dallas 14Atlanta27

When looking at the last 16 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 10 games compared to 6 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Dallas/Atlanta series is 23 ppg while the vistor has put up 21.6 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 1.4 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 16 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 1.4 ppg. That represents a value number of -3.1 when meassured against the offered line of -4.5, suggesting a wager on Dallas makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 16 games between the Cowboys and the Falcons is 44.6 per game. That creates a differential of 2.4 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 47.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Dallas as the road team and with Atlanta as the home team.

Recent Results when Dallas visits Atlanta

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 4, 2012 Dallas 13Atlanta19-4.547.0
December 16, 2006 Dallas 38Atlanta28
November 11, 2001 Dallas 13Atlanta20
October 29, 1995 Dallas 28Atlanta13
November 21, 1993 Dallas 14Atlanta27
December 13, 1992 Dallas 41Atlanta17
December 16, 1990 Dallas 7Atlanta26

When looking at the last 8 games in this series while Atlanta has been the home team, we can see the Falcons have won 5 games compared to 3 wins for the Cowboys. Average points scored per game by Atlanta in this situation is is 22.1 ppg while Dallas has put up 21.9 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 0.2 favoring the Cowboys.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 0.2 ppg. That represents a value number of -4.3 when meassured against the offered line of -4.5, suggesting a wager on the Cowboys makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 8 games between the Cowboys and the Falcons is 44 per game. That creates a differential of 3 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 47.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the Dallas Cowboys Cover the Spread?

This season the Dallas Cowboys have played 18 games, averaging 26.8 points per game, while allowing 26.1 points per game. This has led to a season record of 9-9. Let's have a closer look at recent Dallas Cowboys results.

Recent Dallas Cowboys Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
September 14, 2014 Dallas 26Tennessee10
September 7, 2014 San Francisco 28Dallas17
December 29, 2013 Philadelphia 24Dallas227.554.0
December 22, 2013 Dallas 24Washington233.051.5
December 15, 2013 Green Bay 37Dallas36-5.050.0
December 9, 2013 Dallas 28Chicago45-2.549.0
November 28, 2013 Oakland 24Dallas31-8.548.0

This season the Dallas Cowboys have played 9 games on the road, averaging 22.6 points per game, while allowing 25.4 points per game. This has led to a season record of 4-5. Let's have a closer look at recent Dallas Cowboys results on the road.

Recent Dallas Cowboys Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
September 14, 2014 Dallas 26Tennessee10
December 22, 2013 Dallas 24Washington233.051.5
December 9, 2013 Dallas 28Chicago45-2.549.0
November 24, 2013 Dallas 24New York21-2.544.0
November 10, 2013 Dallas 17New Orleans49-6.054.0

Can the Atlanta Falcons Cover the Spread?

This season the Atlanta Falcons have played 18 games, averaging 22.2 points per game, while allowing 27.8 points per game. This has led to a season record of 5-9. Let's have a closer look at recent Atlanta Falcons results.

Recent Atlanta Falcons Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
September 14, 2014 Atlanta 10Cincinnati24
September 7, 2014 New Orleans 34Atlanta37
December 29, 2013 Carolina 21Atlanta206.046.0
December 23, 2013 Atlanta 24San Francisco34-14.046.0
December 15, 2013 Washington 26Atlanta27-6.050.0
December 8, 2013 Atlanta 21Green Bay22-3.547.0
December 1, 2013 Atlanta 34Buffalo31-3.548.0
November 21, 2013 New Orleans 17Atlanta1310.052.5
November 17, 2013 Atlanta 28Tampa Bay41-1.043.5
November 10, 2013 Seattle 33Atlanta104.045.0

This season the Atlanta Falcons have played 9 games here at home, averaging 24.4 points per game, while allowing 26.4 points per game. This has led to a season record of 4-5. Let's have a closer look at recent Atlanta Falcons results when playing at home.

Recent Atlanta Falcons Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
September 7, 2014 New Orleans 34Atlanta37
December 29, 2013 Carolina 21Atlanta206.046.0
December 15, 2013 Washington 26Atlanta27-6.050.0
November 21, 2013 New Orleans 17Atlanta1310.052.5
November 10, 2013 Seattle 33Atlanta104.045.0
October 20, 2013 Tampa Bay 23Atlanta31-6.043.0
October 7, 2013 New York 30Atlanta28-10.044.5
September 29, 2013 New England 30Atlanta23-2.548.0
September 15, 2013 St. Louis 24Atlanta31-5.546.5
January 20, 2013 San Francisco 28Atlanta243.548.0

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