NCAAF Betting Preview & Picks

SMU Mustangs vs Central Florida Golden Knights

Game Date: Saturday, November 3, 2012 | Game Time: 7:00 PM | Home Line: -9.0 | Total: 50.0

by Leonard Bryant

SMU Mustangs v Central Florida Golden Knights Series Betting Trends

The SMU Mustangs travel to Central Florida to play the Golden Knights at 7:00 PM on Saturday, November 3, 2012. Central Florida is the favorite in this matchup, laying -9.0 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 50.0.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NCAAF sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Mustangs/Golden Knights Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 7, 2013 Central Florida 17SMU13
November 3, 2012 SMU 17Central Florida42-9.050.0
October 15, 2011 Central Florida 17SMU38-3.546.5
December 4, 2010 SMU 7Central Florida17-9.055.0
October 4, 2008 SMU 17Central Florida31-13.555.0
November 17, 2007 Central Florida 49SMU20

When looking at the last 6 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 4 games compared to 2 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the SMU/Central Florida series is 26.8 ppg while the vistor has put up 20.7 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 6.1 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 6 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 6.1 ppg. That represents a value number of -2.9 when meassured against the offered line of -9.0, suggesting a wager on SMU makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 6 games between the Mustangs and the Golden Knights is 47.5 per game. That creates a differential of 2.5 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 50.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with SMU as the road team and with Central Florida as the home team.

Recent Results when SMU visits Central Florida

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 3, 2012 SMU 17Central Florida42-9.050.0
December 4, 2010 SMU 7Central Florida17-9.055.0
October 4, 2008 SMU 17Central Florida31-13.555.0

When looking at the last 3 games in this series while Central Florida has been the home team, we can see the Golden Knights have won 3 games compared to 0 wins for the Mustangs. Average points scored per game by Central Florida in this situation is is 30 ppg while SMU has put up 13.7 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 16.3 favoring the Golden Knights.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 16.3 ppg. That represents a value number of 7.3 when meassured against the offered line of -9.0, suggesting a wager on the Golden Knights makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 3 games between the Mustangs and the Golden Knights is 43.7 per game. That creates a differential of 6.3 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 50.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the SMU Mustangs Cover the Spread?

This season the SMU Mustangs have played 6 games, averaging 6.5 points per game, while allowing 48.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 0-6. Let's have a closer look at recent SMU Mustangs results.

Recent SMU Mustangs Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 18, 2014 Cincinnati 41SMU312.562.5
October 4, 2014 SMU 24East Carolina45-41.058.5
September 27, 2014 TCU 56SMU032.048.0
September 20, 2014 Texas A&M 58SMU634.559.0
September 6, 2014 SMU 6North Texas43-2.544.5
August 31, 2014 SMU 0Baylor45-31.575.0
December 7, 2013 Central Florida 17SMU13

This season the SMU Mustangs have played 3 games on the road, averaging 10.0 points per game, while allowing 44.3 points per game. This has led to a season record of 0-3. Let's have a closer look at recent SMU Mustangs results on the road.

Recent SMU Mustangs Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 4, 2014 SMU 24East Carolina45-41.058.5
September 6, 2014 SMU 6North Texas43-2.544.5
August 31, 2014 SMU 0Baylor45-31.575.0
November 29, 2013 SMU 0Houston34-9.563.5
November 23, 2013 SMU 16South Florida65.055.5

Can the Central Florida Golden Knights Cover the Spread?

This season the Central Florida Golden Knights have played 6 games, averaging 23.8 points per game, while allowing 20.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 4-6. Let's have a closer look at recent Central Florida Golden Knights results.

Recent Central Florida Golden Knights Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 18, 2014 Tulane 13Central Florida20-19.544.0
October 9, 2014 Brigham Young 24Central Florida31-3.544.5
October 2, 2014 Central Florida 17Houston12-2.049.5
September 20, 2014 Bethune Cookman 7Central Florida41
September 13, 2014 Central Florida 10Missouri38-10.554.0
August 30, 2014 Penn St. 26Central Florida24-2.044.5
January 1, 2014 Central Florida 52Baylor42-17.074.0
December 7, 2013 Central Florida 17SMU13
November 29, 2013 South Florida 20Central Florida23-27.550.0
November 21, 2013 Rutgers 17Central Florida41-17.557.5

This season the Central Florida Golden Knights have played 4 games here at home, averaging 29.0 points per game, while allowing 17.5 points per game. This has led to a season record of 3-1. Let's have a closer look at recent Central Florida Golden Knights results when playing at home.

Recent Central Florida Golden Knights Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 18, 2014 Tulane 13Central Florida20-19.544.0
October 9, 2014 Brigham Young 24Central Florida31-3.544.5
September 20, 2014 Bethune Cookman 7Central Florida41
August 30, 2014 Penn St. 26Central Florida24-2.044.5
November 29, 2013 South Florida 20Central Florida23-27.550.0
November 21, 2013 Rutgers 17Central Florida41-17.557.5
November 9, 2013 Houston 14Central Florida19-13.567.0
October 26, 2013 Connecticut 17Central Florida62-24.052.5
September 28, 2013 South Carolina 28Central Florida256.553.5
August 29, 2013 Akron 7Central Florida38-23.055.5

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