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NCAAF Betting Preview & Picks
SMU Mustangs vs Central Florida Golden Knights
Game Date: Saturday, November 3, 2012 | Game Time: 7:00 PM | Home Line: -9.0 | Total: 50.0
Original content, prepared and provided by ProCappers.com StaffSMU Mustangs v Central Florida Golden Knights Series Betting Trends
The SMU Mustangs travel to Central Florida to play the Golden Knights at 7:00 PM on Saturday, November 3, 2012. Central Florida is the favorite in this matchup, laying -9.0 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 50.0.
Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NCAAF sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.
Recent Results in the Mustangs/Golden Knights Series
| Date | AwayTeam | Score | HomeTeam | Score | HomeLine | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 3, 2012 | SMU | 17 | Central Florida | 42 | -9.0 | 50.0 |
| October 15, 2011 | Central Florida | 17 | SMU | 38 | -3.5 | 46.5 |
| December 4, 2010 | SMU | 7 | Central Florida | 17 | -9.0 | 55.0 |
| October 4, 2008 | SMU | 17 | Central Florida | 31 | -13.5 | 55.0 |
| November 17, 2007 | Central Florida | 49 | SMU | 20 |
When looking at the last 5 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 4 games compared to 1 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the SMU/Central Florida series is 29.6 ppg while the vistor has put up 21.4 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 8.2 favoring the home team.
As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 5 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 8.2 ppg. That represents a value number of -0.8 when meassured against the offered line of -9.0, suggesting a wager on SMU makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.
The average Total points scored spanning the last 5 games between the Mustangs and the Golden Knights is 51 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 1 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 50.0 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.
Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with SMU as the road team and with Central Florida as the home team.
Recent Results when SMU visits Central Florida
| Date | AwayTeam | Score | HomeTeam | Score | HomeLine | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 3, 2012 | SMU | 17 | Central Florida | 42 | -9.0 | 50.0 |
| December 4, 2010 | SMU | 7 | Central Florida | 17 | -9.0 | 55.0 |
| October 4, 2008 | SMU | 17 | Central Florida | 31 | -13.5 | 55.0 |
When looking at the last 3 games in this series while Central Florida has been the home team, we can see the Golden Knights have won 3 games compared to 0 wins for the Mustangs. Average points scored per game by Central Florida in this situation is is 30 ppg while SMU has put up 13.7 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 16.3 favoring the Golden Knights.
As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 16.3 ppg. That represents a value number of 7.3 when meassured against the offered line of -9.0, suggesting a wager on the Golden Knights makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.
The average Total points scored spanning the last 3 games between the Mustangs and the Golden Knights is 43.7 per game. That creates a differential of 6.3 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 50.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.
Can the SMU Mustangs Cover the Spread?
This season the SMU Mustangs have played 13 games, averaging 30.5 points per game, while allowing 25.7 points per game. This has led to a season record of 7-6. Let's have a closer look at recent SMU Mustangs results.
Recent SMU Mustangs Results
| Date | AwayTeam | Score | HomeTeam | Score | HomeLine | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 24, 2012 | SMU | 43 | Fresno St. | 10 | -12.5 | 61.5 |
| November 24, 2012 | Tulsa | 27 | SMU | 35 | 5.0 | 50.5 |
| November 17, 2012 | SMU | 14 | Rice | 36 | 3.5 | 55.5 |
| November 10, 2012 | Southern Miss | 6 | SMU | 34 | -14.5 | 50.5 |
| November 3, 2012 | SMU | 17 | Central Florida | 42 | -9.0 | 50.0 |
| October 27, 2012 | Memphis | 13 | SMU | 44 | -21.0 | 48.5 |
| October 18, 2012 | Houston | 42 | SMU | 72 | 4.0 | 58.5 |
This season the SMU Mustangs have played 6 games on the road, averaging 23.5 points per game, while allowing 29.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 2-4. Let's have a closer look at recent SMU Mustangs results on the road.
Recent SMU Mustangs Road Results
| Date | AwayTeam | Score | HomeTeam | Score | HomeLine | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 24, 2012 | SMU | 43 | Fresno St. | 10 | -12.5 | 61.5 |
| November 17, 2012 | SMU | 14 | Rice | 36 | 3.5 | 55.5 |
| November 3, 2012 | SMU | 17 | Central Florida | 42 | -9.0 | 50.0 |
| October 13, 2012 | SMU | 26 | Tulane | 27 | 18.5 | 50.0 |
| October 6, 2012 | SMU | 17 | UTEP | 0 | -1.0 | 53.0 |
Can the Central Florida Golden Knights Cover the Spread?
This season the Central Florida Golden Knights have played 14 games, averaging 35.4 points per game, while allowing 22.1 points per game. This has led to a season record of 10-6. Let's have a closer look at recent Central Florida Golden Knights results.
Recent Central Florida Golden Knights Results
| Date | AwayTeam | Score | HomeTeam | Score | HomeLine | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 21, 2012 | Ball St. | 17 | Central Florida | 38 | -7.5 | 58.5 |
| December 1, 2012 | Central Florida | 27 | Tulsa | 33 | -3.0 | 53.5 |
| November 24, 2012 | UAB | 24 | Central Florida | 49 | -21.0 | 58.0 |
| November 17, 2012 | Central Florida | 21 | Tulsa | 23 | -1.5 | 55.0 |
| November 10, 2012 | Central Florida | 31 | UTEP | 24 | 13.5 | 51.0 |
| November 3, 2012 | SMU | 17 | Central Florida | 42 | -9.0 | 50.0 |
| October 27, 2012 | Central Florida | 54 | Marshall | 17 | 2.5 | 68.0 |
| October 20, 2012 | Central Florida | 35 | Memphis | 17 | 23.5 | 50.5 |
| October 13, 2012 | Southern Miss | 31 | Central Florida | 38 | -16.0 | 52.0 |
| October 4, 2012 | East Carolina | 20 | Central Florida | 40 | -11.5 | 45.5 |
This season the Central Florida Golden Knights have played 7 games here at home, averaging 36.6 points per game, while allowing 21.4 points per game. This has led to a season record of 6-1. Let's have a closer look at recent Central Florida Golden Knights results when playing at home.
Recent Central Florida Golden Knights Home Results
| Date | AwayTeam | Score | HomeTeam | Score | HomeLine | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 21, 2012 | Ball St. | 17 | Central Florida | 38 | -7.5 | 58.5 |
| November 24, 2012 | UAB | 24 | Central Florida | 49 | -21.0 | 58.0 |
| November 3, 2012 | SMU | 17 | Central Florida | 42 | -9.0 | 50.0 |
| October 13, 2012 | Southern Miss | 31 | Central Florida | 38 | -16.0 | 52.0 |
| October 4, 2012 | East Carolina | 20 | Central Florida | 40 | -11.5 | 45.5 |
| September 29, 2012 | Missouri | 21 | Central Florida | 16 | -2.0 | 48.5 |
| September 15, 2012 | Fla-International | 20 | Central Florida | 33 | -17.0 | 50.0 |
| November 25, 2011 | UTEP | 14 | Central Florida | 31 | -10.0 | 53.0 |
| November 3, 2011 | Tulsa | 24 | Central Florida | 17 | -1.5 | 48.5 |
| October 29, 2011 | Memphis | 0 | Central Florida | 41 | -29.5 | 48.0 |
