NCAAF Betting Preview & Picks

SMU Mustangs vs Central Florida Golden Knights

Game Date: Saturday, November 3, 2012 | Game Time: 7:00 PM | Home Line: -9.0 | Total: 50.0

by Leonard Bryant

SMU Mustangs v Central Florida Golden Knights Series Betting Trends

The SMU Mustangs travel to Central Florida to play the Golden Knights at 7:00 PM on Saturday, November 3, 2012. Central Florida is the favorite in this matchup, laying -9.0 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 50.0.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NCAAF sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Mustangs/Golden Knights Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 7, 2013 Central Florida 17SMU13
November 3, 2012 SMU 17Central Florida42-9.050.0
October 15, 2011 Central Florida 17SMU38-3.546.5
December 4, 2010 SMU 7Central Florida17-9.055.0
October 4, 2008 SMU 17Central Florida31-13.555.0
November 17, 2007 Central Florida 49SMU20

When looking at the last 6 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 4 games compared to 2 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the SMU/Central Florida series is 26.8 ppg while the vistor has put up 20.7 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 6.1 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 6 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 6.1 ppg. That represents a value number of -2.9 when meassured against the offered line of -9.0, suggesting a wager on SMU makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 6 games between the Mustangs and the Golden Knights is 47.5 per game. That creates a differential of 2.5 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 50.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with SMU as the road team and with Central Florida as the home team.

Recent Results when SMU visits Central Florida

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 3, 2012 SMU 17Central Florida42-9.050.0
December 4, 2010 SMU 7Central Florida17-9.055.0
October 4, 2008 SMU 17Central Florida31-13.555.0

When looking at the last 3 games in this series while Central Florida has been the home team, we can see the Golden Knights have won 3 games compared to 0 wins for the Mustangs. Average points scored per game by Central Florida in this situation is is 30 ppg while SMU has put up 13.7 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 16.3 favoring the Golden Knights.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 16.3 ppg. That represents a value number of 7.3 when meassured against the offered line of -9.0, suggesting a wager on the Golden Knights makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 3 games between the Mustangs and the Golden Knights is 43.7 per game. That creates a differential of 6.3 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 50.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the SMU Mustangs Cover the Spread?

This season the SMU Mustangs have played 12 games, averaging 26.8 points per game, while allowing 33.3 points per game. This has led to a season record of 5-7. Let's have a closer look at recent SMU Mustangs results.

Recent SMU Mustangs Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 7, 2013 Central Florida 17SMU13
November 29, 2013 SMU 0Houston34-9.563.5
November 23, 2013 SMU 16South Florida65.055.5
November 16, 2013 Connecticut 21SMU38-14.556.0
November 9, 2013 SMU 25Cincinnati28-7.566.5
October 26, 2013 Temple 49SMU59-14.060.0
October 19, 2013 SMU 34Memphis29-3.547.0

This season the SMU Mustangs have played 6 games on the road, averaging 17.5 points per game, while allowing 31.2 points per game. This has led to a season record of 2-4. Let's have a closer look at recent SMU Mustangs results on the road.

Recent SMU Mustangs Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 29, 2013 SMU 0Houston34-9.563.5
November 23, 2013 SMU 16South Florida65.055.5
November 9, 2013 SMU 25Cincinnati28-7.566.5
October 19, 2013 SMU 34Memphis29-3.547.0
September 28, 2013 SMU 17TCU48-17.049.5

Can the Central Florida Golden Knights Cover the Spread?

This season the Central Florida Golden Knights have played 13 games, averaging 34.6 points per game, while allowing 21.3 points per game. This has led to a season record of 12-7. Let's have a closer look at recent Central Florida Golden Knights results.

Recent Central Florida Golden Knights Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 1, 2014 Central Florida 52Baylor42-17.074.0
December 7, 2013 Central Florida 17SMU13
November 29, 2013 South Florida 20Central Florida23-27.550.0
November 21, 2013 Rutgers 17Central Florida41-17.557.5
November 16, 2013 Central Florida 39Temple3616.556.5
November 9, 2013 Houston 14Central Florida19-13.567.0
October 26, 2013 Connecticut 17Central Florida62-24.052.5
October 18, 2013 Central Florida 38Louisville35-14.552.5
October 5, 2013 Central Florida 24Memphis179.547.5
September 28, 2013 South Carolina 28Central Florida256.553.5

This season the Central Florida Golden Knights have played 6 games here at home, averaging 34.7 points per game, while allowing 17.2 points per game. This has led to a season record of 5-1. Let's have a closer look at recent Central Florida Golden Knights results when playing at home.

Recent Central Florida Golden Knights Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 29, 2013 South Florida 20Central Florida23-27.550.0
November 21, 2013 Rutgers 17Central Florida41-17.557.5
November 9, 2013 Houston 14Central Florida19-13.567.0
October 26, 2013 Connecticut 17Central Florida62-24.052.5
September 28, 2013 South Carolina 28Central Florida256.553.5
August 29, 2013 Akron 7Central Florida38-23.055.5
December 21, 2012 Ball St. 17Central Florida38-7.558.5
November 24, 2012 UAB 24Central Florida49-21.058.0
November 3, 2012 SMU 17Central Florida42-9.050.0
October 13, 2012 Southern Miss 31Central Florida38-16.052.0

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