NCAAF Betting Preview & Picks

Michigan Wolverines vs Minnesota Golden Gophers

Game Date: Saturday, November 3, 2012 | Game Time: 12:00 PM | Home Line: 10.0 | Total: 46.5

by Brett Diamond

Michigan Wolverines v Minnesota Golden Gophers Series Betting Trends

The Michigan Wolverines travel to Minnesota to play the Golden Gophers at 12:00 PM on Saturday, November 3, 2012. Minnesota is the underdog in this matchup, getting 10.0 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 46.5.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NCAAF sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Wolverines/Golden Gophers Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
September 27, 2014 Minnesota 30Michigan14-13.042.5
October 5, 2013 Minnesota 13Michigan42-18.549.5
November 3, 2012 Michigan 35Minnesota1310.046.5
October 1, 2011 Minnesota 0Michigan58-20.054.0
November 8, 2008 Michigan 29Minnesota6-7.548.0
October 27, 2007 Minnesota 10Michigan34
September 30, 2006 Michigan 28Minnesota14
October 8, 2005 Minnesota 23Michigan20
October 9, 2004 Minnesota 24Michigan27
October 10, 2003 Michigan 38Minnesota35

When looking at the last 18 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 8 games compared to 10 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Michigan/Minnesota series is 25.5 ppg while the vistor has put up 24.4 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 1.1 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 18 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 1.1 ppg. That represents a value number of 11.1 when meassured against the offered line of 10.0, suggesting a wager on Minnesota makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 18 games between the Wolverines and the Golden Gophers is 49.9 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 3.4 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 46.5 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Michigan as the road team and with Minnesota as the home team.

Recent Results when Michigan visits Minnesota

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 3, 2012 Michigan 35Minnesota1310.046.5
November 8, 2008 Michigan 29Minnesota6-7.548.0
September 30, 2006 Michigan 28Minnesota14
October 10, 2003 Michigan 38Minnesota35
November 9, 2002 Michigan 41Minnesota24
Michigan 58Minnesota7
Michigan 44Minnesota10

When looking at the last 8 games in this series while Minnesota has been the home team, we can see the Golden Gophers have won 0 games compared to 8 wins for the Wolverines. Average points scored per game by Minnesota in this situation is is 14.9 ppg while Michigan has put up 36 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 21.1 favoring the Golden Gophers.

Unlike most series', this one has leaned towards the road team. Specifically, the road team in this series has enjoyed an average advantage of 21.1 ppg. That represents a value number of 31.1 when meassured against the offered line of 10.0, suggesting a wager on the Golden Gophers makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks betting against the number looking at the series situation in the vacuum of this trend.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 8 games between the Wolverines and the Golden Gophers is 50.9 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 4.4 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 46.5 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Can the Michigan Wolverines Cover the Spread?

This season the Michigan Wolverines have played 8 games, averaging 20.4 points per game, while allowing 23.1 points per game. This has led to a season record of 3-5. Let's have a closer look at recent Michigan Wolverines results.

Recent Michigan Wolverines Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 25, 2014 Michigan 11Michigan St.35-17.051.0
October 11, 2014 Penn St. 13Michigan18-2.542.5
October 4, 2014 Michigan 24Rutgers26-2.546.0
September 27, 2014 Minnesota 30Michigan14-13.042.5
September 20, 2014 Utah 26Michigan10-3.555.0
September 13, 2014 Miami - OH 10Michigan34-33.552.0
September 6, 2014 Michigan 0Notre Dame31-4.057.0

This season the Michigan Wolverines have played 3 games on the road, averaging 11.7 points per game, while allowing 30.7 points per game. This has led to a season record of 0-3. Let's have a closer look at recent Michigan Wolverines results on the road.

Recent Michigan Wolverines Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 25, 2014 Michigan 11Michigan St.35-17.051.0
October 4, 2014 Michigan 24Rutgers26-2.546.0
September 6, 2014 Michigan 0Notre Dame31-4.057.0
December 28, 2013 Michigan 14Kansas St.31-7.052.0
November 23, 2013 Michigan 21Iowa24-6.047.0

Can the Minnesota Golden Gophers Cover the Spread?

This season the Minnesota Golden Gophers have played 8 games, averaging 28.1 points per game, while allowing 22.3 points per game. This has led to a season record of 6-5. Let's have a closer look at recent Minnesota Golden Gophers results.

Recent Minnesota Golden Gophers Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 25, 2014 Minnesota 24Illinois285.555.5
October 18, 2014 Purdue 38Minnesota39-13.548.5
October 11, 2014 Northwestern 17Minnesota24-3.544.5
September 27, 2014 Minnesota 30Michigan14-13.042.5
September 20, 2014 San Jose St. 7Minnesota24-10.050.5
September 13, 2014 Minnesota 7TCU30-16.050.0
September 6, 2014 Mid Tenn St. 24Minnesota35-14.049.5
August 28, 2014 Eastern Illinois 20Minnesota42
December 27, 2013 Syracuse 21Minnesota17-3.547.5
November 30, 2013 Minnesota 3Michigan St.14-17.041.5

This season the Minnesota Golden Gophers have played 5 games here at home, averaging 32.8 points per game, while allowing 21.2 points per game. This has led to a season record of 5-0. Let's have a closer look at recent Minnesota Golden Gophers results when playing at home.

Recent Minnesota Golden Gophers Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 18, 2014 Purdue 38Minnesota39-13.548.5
October 11, 2014 Northwestern 17Minnesota24-3.544.5
September 20, 2014 San Jose St. 7Minnesota24-10.050.5
September 6, 2014 Mid Tenn St. 24Minnesota35-14.049.5
August 28, 2014 Eastern Illinois 20Minnesota42
December 27, 2013 Syracuse 21Minnesota17-3.547.5
November 23, 2013 Wisconsin 20Minnesota7
November 23, 2013 Wisconsin 20Minnesota715.551.0
November 9, 2013 Penn St. 10Minnesota24-2.548.0
October 26, 2013 Nebraska 23Minnesota3410.552.0

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