NFL Betting Preview & Picks

New Orleans Saints vs Denver Broncos

Game Date: Sunday, October 28, 2012 | Game Time: 8:30 PM | Home Line: -6.5 | Total: 54.5

by Ron McCoy

New Orleans Saints v Denver Broncos Series Betting Trends

The New Orleans Saints travel to Denver to play the Broncos at 8:30 PM on Sunday, October 28, 2012. Denver is the favorite in this matchup, laying -6.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 54.5.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NFL sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Saints/Broncos Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 28, 2012 New Orleans 14Denver34-6.554.5
September 21, 2008 New Orleans 32Denver34-5.051.5
November 21, 2004 Denver 34New Orleans13
August 25, 2001 New Orleans 24Denver31
December 3, 2000 Denver 38New Orleans23
December 25, 1994 New Orleans 30Denver28
November 13, 1988 Denver 0New Orleans42

When looking at the last 7 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 4 games compared to 3 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the New Orleans/Denver series is 29.3 ppg while the vistor has put up 24.6 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 4.7 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 7 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 4.7 ppg. That represents a value number of -1.8 when meassured against the offered line of -6.5, suggesting a wager on New Orleans makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 7 games between the Saints and the Broncos is 53.9 per game. That creates a differential of 0.6 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 54.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with New Orleans as the road team and with Denver as the home team.

Recent Results when New Orleans visits Denver

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 28, 2012 New Orleans 14Denver34-6.554.5
September 21, 2008 New Orleans 32Denver34-5.051.5
August 25, 2001 New Orleans 24Denver31
December 25, 1994 New Orleans 30Denver28

When looking at the last 4 games in this series while Denver has been the home team, we can see the Broncos have won 3 games compared to 1 wins for the Saints. Average points scored per game by Denver in this situation is is 31.8 ppg while New Orleans has put up 25 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 6.8 favoring the Broncos.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 6.8 ppg. That represents a value number of 0.3 when meassured against the offered line of -6.5, suggesting a wager on the Broncos makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 4 games between the Saints and the Broncos is 56.8 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 2.3 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 54.5 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Can the New Orleans Saints Cover the Spread?

This season the New Orleans Saints have played 8 games, averaging 28.4 points per game, while allowing 24.8 points per game. This has led to a season record of 4-4. Let's have a closer look at recent New Orleans Saints results.

Recent New Orleans Saints Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 30, 2014 New Orleans 28Carolina103.049.5
October 26, 2014 Green Bay 23New Orleans44-2.555.0
October 19, 2014 New Orleans 23Detroit24-2.047.0
October 5, 2014 Tampa Bay 31New Orleans37
September 28, 2014 New Orleans 17Dallas38
September 21, 2014 Minnesota 9New Orleans20-8.551.0
September 14, 2014 New Orleans 24Cleveland26

This season the New Orleans Saints have played 5 games on the road, averaging 25.2 points per game, while allowing 27.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 1-4. Let's have a closer look at recent New Orleans Saints results on the road.

Recent New Orleans Saints Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 30, 2014 New Orleans 28Carolina103.049.5
October 19, 2014 New Orleans 23Detroit24-2.047.0
September 28, 2014 New Orleans 17Dallas38
September 14, 2014 New Orleans 24Cleveland26
September 7, 2014 New Orleans 34Atlanta37

Can the Denver Broncos Cover the Spread?

This season the Denver Broncos have played 7 games, averaging 32.0 points per game, while allowing 20.3 points per game. This has led to a season record of 6-4. Let's have a closer look at recent Denver Broncos results.

Recent Denver Broncos Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 23, 2014 San Diego 21Denver35-9.050.5
October 19, 2014 San Francisco 17Denver42-6.547.5
October 12, 2014 Denver 31New York1710.047.5
October 5, 2014 Arizona 20Denver41-7.048.5
September 21, 2014 Denver 20Seattle26-4.548.5
September 14, 2014 Kansas City 17Denver24
September 7, 2014 Indianapolis 24Denver31
February 2, 2014 Seattle 43Denver8-2.047.5
January 19, 2014 New England 16Denver26-5.056.5
January 12, 2014 San Diego 17Denver24-8.054.0

This season the Denver Broncos have played 5 games here at home, averaging 34.6 points per game, while allowing 19.8 points per game. This has led to a season record of 5-0. Let's have a closer look at recent Denver Broncos results when playing at home.

Recent Denver Broncos Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 23, 2014 San Diego 21Denver35-9.050.5
October 19, 2014 San Francisco 17Denver42-6.547.5
October 5, 2014 Arizona 20Denver41-7.048.5
September 14, 2014 Kansas City 17Denver24
September 7, 2014 Indianapolis 24Denver31
February 2, 2014 Seattle 43Denver8-2.047.5
January 19, 2014 New England 16Denver26-5.056.5
January 12, 2014 San Diego 17Denver24-8.054.0
December 12, 2013 San Diego 27Denver20-10.556.5
December 8, 2013 Tennessee 28Denver51-13.549.5

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