NCAAF Betting Preview & Picks

Northern Illinois Huskies vs Western Michigan Broncos

Game Date: Saturday, October 27, 2012 | Game Time: 12:00 PM | Home Line: 7.5 | Total: 58.5

by Leonard Bryant

Northern Illinois Huskies v Western Michigan Broncos Series Betting Trends

The Northern Illinois Huskies travel to Western Michigan to play the Broncos at 12:00 PM on Saturday, October 27, 2012. Western Michigan is the underdog in this matchup, getting 7.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 58.5.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NCAAF sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Huskies/Broncos Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 26, 2013 Western Michigan 14Northern Illinois33-34.563.0
October 27, 2012 Northern Illinois 48Western Michigan347.558.5
October 15, 2011 Western Michigan 22Northern Illinois511.568.0
October 30, 2010 Northern Illinois 28Western Michigan217.054.5
September 6, 2008 Northern Illinois 26Western Michigan29
October 13, 2007 Western Michigan 17Northern Illinois13
October 14, 2006 Northern Illinois 14Western Michigan16
November 23, 2005 Western Michigan 7Northern Illinois42
October 23, 2004 Northern Illinois 59Western Michigan38
October 18, 2003 Western Michigan 10Northern Illinois37

When looking at the last 15 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 9 games compared to 6 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Northern Illinois/Western Michigan series is 30.9 ppg while the vistor has put up 23.3 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 7.6 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 15 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 7.6 ppg. That represents a value number of 15.1 when meassured against the offered line of 7.5, suggesting a wager on Western Michigan makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 15 games between the Huskies and the Broncos is 54.2 per game. That creates a differential of 4.3 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 58.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Northern Illinois as the road team and with Western Michigan as the home team.

Recent Results when Northern Illinois visits Western Michigan

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 27, 2012 Northern Illinois 48Western Michigan347.558.5
October 30, 2010 Northern Illinois 28Western Michigan217.054.5
September 6, 2008 Northern Illinois 26Western Michigan29
October 14, 2006 Northern Illinois 14Western Michigan16
October 23, 2004 Northern Illinois 59Western Michigan38
October 26, 2002 Northern Illinois 24Western Michigan20
Northern Illinois 23Western Michigan37

When looking at the last 8 games in this series while Western Michigan has been the home team, we can see the Broncos have won 4 games compared to 4 wins for the Huskies. Average points scored per game by Western Michigan in this situation is is 30.9 ppg while Northern Illinois has put up 30.5 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 0.4 favoring the Broncos.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 0.4 ppg. That represents a value number of 7.9 when meassured against the offered line of 7.5, suggesting a wager on the Broncos makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 8 games between the Huskies and the Broncos is 61.4 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 2.9 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 58.5 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Can the Northern Illinois Huskies Cover the Spread?

This season the Northern Illinois Huskies have played 6 games, averaging 29.5 points per game, while allowing 26.5 points per game. This has led to a season record of 4-2. Let's have a closer look at recent Northern Illinois Huskies results.

Recent Northern Illinois Huskies Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 18, 2014 Miami - OH 41Northern Illinois51-13.558.0
October 11, 2014 Central Michigan 34Northern Illinois17-9.557.0
October 4, 2014 Kent St. 14Northern Illinois17-26.059.0
September 20, 2014 Northern Illinois 14Arkansas52-13.067.0
September 6, 2014 Northern Illinois 23Northwestern15-7.059.5
August 28, 2014 Presbyterian 3Northern Illinois55
December 26, 2013 Utah St. 21Northern Illinois142.055.0

This season the Northern Illinois Huskies have played 2 games on the road, averaging 18.5 points per game, while allowing 33.5 points per game. This has led to a season record of 1-1. Let's have a closer look at recent Northern Illinois Huskies results on the road.

Recent Northern Illinois Huskies Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
September 20, 2014 Northern Illinois 14Arkansas52-13.067.0
September 6, 2014 Northern Illinois 23Northwestern15-7.059.5
November 20, 2013 Northern Illinois 35Toledo173.073.0
November 2, 2013 Northern Illinois 63Massachusetts1925.560.0
October 19, 2013 Northern Illinois 38Central Michigan1715.059.0

Can the Western Michigan Broncos Cover the Spread?

This season the Western Michigan Broncos have played 7 games, averaging 32.6 points per game, while allowing 28.1 points per game. This has led to a season record of 4-2. Let's have a closer look at recent Western Michigan Broncos results.

Recent Western Michigan Broncos Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 18, 2014 Western Michigan 26Bowling Green14-2.570.5
October 11, 2014 Western Michigan 42Ball St.38-1.054.5
October 4, 2014 Toledo 20Western Michigan196.063.0
September 27, 2014 Western Michigan 17Virginia Tech35-21.053.0
September 20, 2014 Murray St. 14Western Michigan45
September 13, 2014 Western Michigan 45Idaho33-3.060.0
August 30, 2014 Western Michigan 34Purdue43-8.552.5
November 26, 2013 Western Michigan 14Northern Illinois33-34.563.0
November 16, 2013 Central Michigan 27Western Michigan222.551.0
November 9, 2013 Western Michigan 32Eastern Michigan352.559.0

This season the Western Michigan Broncos have played 2 games here at home, averaging 32.0 points per game, while allowing 17.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 1-1. Let's have a closer look at recent Western Michigan Broncos results when playing at home.

Recent Western Michigan Broncos Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 4, 2014 Toledo 20Western Michigan196.063.0
September 20, 2014 Murray St. 14Western Michigan45
November 16, 2013 Central Michigan 27Western Michigan222.551.0
October 19, 2013 Ball St. 38Western Michigan1720.058.0
October 12, 2013 Buffalo 33Western Michigan09.550.0
September 28, 2013 Kent St. 32Western Michigan142.550.5
September 7, 2013 Nicholls State 27Western Michigan23
November 17, 2012 Eastern Michigan 29Western Michigan23-13.562.0
October 27, 2012 Northern Illinois 48Western Michigan347.558.5
October 6, 2012 Massachusetts 14Western Michigan52-17.055.5

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