College Football Betting Preview & Picks

East Carolina Pirates vs Central Florida Golden Knights

Game Date: Thursday, October 4, 2012 | Game Time: 8:00 PM | Home Line: -11.5 | Total: 45.5

by Leonard Bryant

East Carolina Pirates v Central Florida Golden Knights Series Betting Trends

The East Carolina Pirates travel to Central Florida to play the Golden Knights at 8:00 PM on Thursday, October 4, 2012. Central Florida is the favorite in this matchup, laying -11.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 45.5.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any College Football sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Pirates/Golden Knights Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 4, 2012 East Carolina 20Central Florida40-11.545.5
November 19, 2011 Central Florida 31East Carolina387.051.0
October 30, 2010 East Carolina 35Central Florida49-7.553.0
September 26, 2009 Central Florida 14East Carolina19-21.544.0
November 2, 2008 East Carolina 13Central Florida10-5.042.5
October 6, 2007 Central Florida 38East Carolina52
November 4, 2006 East Carolina 23Central Florida10
October 29, 2005 Central Florida 30East Carolina20
Central Florida 20East Carolina23
Central Florida 17East Carolina41

When looking at the last 11 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 8 games compared to 3 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the East Carolina/Central Florida series is 30 ppg while the vistor has put up 22.5 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 7.5 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 11 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 7.5 ppg. That represents a value number of -4 when meassured against the offered line of -11.5, suggesting a wager on East Carolina makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 11 games between the Pirates and the Golden Knights is 52.5 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 7 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 45.5 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with East Carolina as the road team and with Central Florida as the home team.

Recent Results when East Carolina visits Central Florida

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 4, 2012 East Carolina 20Central Florida40-11.545.5
October 30, 2010 East Carolina 35Central Florida49-7.553.0
November 2, 2008 East Carolina 13Central Florida10-5.042.5
November 4, 2006 East Carolina 23Central Florida10

When looking at the last 4 games in this series while Central Florida has been the home team, we can see the Golden Knights have won 2 games compared to 2 wins for the Pirates. Average points scored per game by Central Florida in this situation is is 27.3 ppg while East Carolina has put up 22.8 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 4.5 favoring the Pirates.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 4.5 ppg. That represents a value number of -7 when meassured against the offered line of -11.5, suggesting a wager on the Pirates makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 4 games between the Pirates and the Golden Knights is 50.1 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 4.6 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 45.5 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Can the East Carolina Pirates Cover the Spread?

This season the East Carolina Pirates have played 7 games, averaging 39.6 points per game, while allowing 23.4 points per game. This has led to a season record of 6-1. Let's have a closer look at recent East Carolina Pirates results.

Recent East Carolina Pirates Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 23, 2014 Connecticut 21East Carolina31-27.555.0
October 11, 2014 East Carolina 28South Florida1716.057.5
October 4, 2014 SMU 24East Carolina45-41.058.5
September 20, 2014 North Carolina 41East Carolina70-1.067.5
September 13, 2014 East Carolina 28Virginia Tech21-10.054.0
September 6, 2014 East Carolina 23South Carolina33-15.065.0
August 30, 2014 NC Central 7East Carolina52

This season the East Carolina Pirates have played 3 games on the road, averaging 26.3 points per game, while allowing 23.7 points per game. This has led to a season record of 2-1. Let's have a closer look at recent East Carolina Pirates results on the road.

Recent East Carolina Pirates Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 11, 2014 East Carolina 28South Florida1716.057.5
September 13, 2014 East Carolina 28Virginia Tech21-10.054.0
September 6, 2014 East Carolina 23South Carolina33-15.065.0
November 29, 2013 East Carolina 28Marshall59-3.068.0
November 23, 2013 East Carolina 42NC State285.555.0

Can the Central Florida Golden Knights Cover the Spread?

This season the Central Florida Golden Knights have played 6 games, averaging 23.8 points per game, while allowing 20.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 4-1. Let's have a closer look at recent Central Florida Golden Knights results.

Recent Central Florida Golden Knights Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 18, 2014 Tulane 13Central Florida20-19.544.0
October 9, 2014 Brigham Young 24Central Florida31-3.544.5
October 2, 2014 Central Florida 17Houston12-2.049.5
September 20, 2014 Bethune Cookman 7Central Florida41
September 13, 2014 Central Florida 10Missouri38-10.554.0
August 30, 2014 Penn St. 26Central Florida24-2.044.5
January 1, 2014 Central Florida 52Baylor42-17.074.0
December 7, 2013 Central Florida 17SMU13
November 29, 2013 South Florida 20Central Florida23-27.550.0
November 21, 2013 Rutgers 17Central Florida41-17.557.5

This season the Central Florida Golden Knights have played 4 games here at home, averaging 29.0 points per game, while allowing 17.5 points per game. This has led to a season record of 3-1. Let's have a closer look at recent Central Florida Golden Knights results when playing at home.

Recent Central Florida Golden Knights Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
October 18, 2014 Tulane 13Central Florida20-19.544.0
October 9, 2014 Brigham Young 24Central Florida31-3.544.5
September 20, 2014 Bethune Cookman 7Central Florida41
August 30, 2014 Penn St. 26Central Florida24-2.044.5
November 29, 2013 South Florida 20Central Florida23-27.550.0
November 21, 2013 Rutgers 17Central Florida41-17.557.5
November 9, 2013 Houston 14Central Florida19-13.567.0
October 26, 2013 Connecticut 17Central Florida62-24.052.5
September 28, 2013 South Carolina 28Central Florida256.553.5
August 29, 2013 Akron 7Central Florida38-23.055.5

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