NCAAF Betting Preview & Picks

Miss. St. Bulldogs vs Troy St. Trojans

Game Date: Saturday, September 15, 2012 | Game Time: 7:00 PM | Home Line: 14.5 | Total: 58.0

by Stat Track

Miss. St. Bulldogs v Troy St. Trojans Series Betting Trends

The Miss. St. Bulldogs travel to Troy St. to play the Trojans at 7:00 PM on Saturday, September 15, 2012. Troy St. is the underdog in this matchup, getting 14.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 58.0.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NCAAF sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Bulldogs/Trojans Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
September 21, 2013 Troy St. 7Miss. St.62-13.559.0
September 15, 2012 Miss. St. 30Troy St.2414.558.0
October 12, 2002 Troy St. 8Miss. St.11
October 13, 2001 Troy St. 21Miss. St.9

When looking at the last 4 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 2 games compared to 2 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Miss. St./Troy St. series is 26.5 ppg while the vistor has put up 16.5 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 10 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 4 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 10 ppg. That represents a value number of 24.5 when meassured against the offered line of 14.5, suggesting a wager on Troy St. makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 4 games between the Bulldogs and the Trojans is 43 per game. That creates a differential of 15 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 58.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Miss. St. as the road team and with Troy St. as the home team.

Recent Results when Miss. St. visits Troy St.

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
September 15, 2012 Miss. St. 30Troy St.2414.558.0

When looking at the last 1 games in this series while Troy St. has been the home team, we can see the Trojans have won 0 games compared to 1 wins for the Bulldogs. Average points scored per game by Troy St. in this situation is is 24 ppg while Miss. St. has put up 30 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 6 favoring the Trojans.

Unlike most series', this one has leaned towards the road team. Specifically, the road team in this series has enjoyed an average advantage of 6 ppg. That represents a value number of 20.5 when meassured against the offered line of 14.5, suggesting a wager on the Trojans makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks betting against the number looking at the series situation in the vacuum of this trend.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 1 games between the Bulldogs and the Trojans is 54 per game. That creates a differential of 4 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 58.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the Miss. St. Bulldogs Cover the Spread?

This season the Miss. St. Bulldogs have played 13 games, averaging 27.7 points per game, while allowing 23.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 7-6. Let's have a closer look at recent Miss. St. Bulldogs results.

Recent Miss. St. Bulldogs Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 31, 2013 Miss. St. 44Rice77.049.0
November 28, 2013 Mississippi 10Miss. St.173.553.5
November 23, 2013 Miss. St. 24Arkansas171.050.5
November 16, 2013 Alabama 20Miss. St.724.053.0
November 9, 2013 Miss. St. 41Texas A&M51-19.068.5
November 2, 2013 Miss. St. 16South Carolina34-12.052.0
October 24, 2013 Kentucky 22Miss. St.28-10.556.0

This season the Miss. St. Bulldogs have played 6 games on the road, averaging 24.7 points per game, while allowing 25.7 points per game. This has led to a season record of 2-4. Let's have a closer look at recent Miss. St. Bulldogs results on the road.

Recent Miss. St. Bulldogs Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 31, 2013 Miss. St. 44Rice77.049.0
November 23, 2013 Miss. St. 24Arkansas171.050.5
November 9, 2013 Miss. St. 41Texas A&M51-19.068.5
November 2, 2013 Miss. St. 16South Carolina34-12.052.0
September 14, 2013 Miss. St. 20Auburn24-6.550.0

Can the Troy St. Trojans Cover the Spread?

This season the Troy St. Trojans have played 12 games, averaging 34.1 points per game, while allowing 35.9 points per game. This has led to a season record of 6-6. Let's have a closer look at recent Troy St. Trojans results.

Recent Troy St. Trojans Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 29, 2013 Texas State 28Troy St.42-8.556.5
November 16, 2013 Troy St. 21Mississippi51-28.068.5
November 7, 2013 Troy St. 36UL - Lafayette41-14.067.0
October 31, 2013 UL - Monroe 49Troy St.37-3.061.0
October 26, 2013 Troy St. 32Western Kentucky26-10.063.0
October 12, 2013 Troy St. 35Georgia St.2815.062.0
October 5, 2013 South Alabama 33Troy St.34-3.562.5
September 28, 2013 Troy St. 31Duke38-12.569.0
September 21, 2013 Troy St. 7Miss. St.62-13.559.0
September 12, 2013 Troy St. 34Arkansas St.41-7.066.5

This season the Troy St. Trojans have played 5 games here at home, averaging 42.6 points per game, while allowing 28.8 points per game. This has led to a season record of 4-1. Let's have a closer look at recent Troy St. Trojans results when playing at home.

Recent Troy St. Trojans Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 29, 2013 Texas State 28Troy St.42-8.556.5
October 31, 2013 UL - Monroe 49Troy St.37-3.061.0
October 5, 2013 South Alabama 33Troy St.34-3.562.5
September 7, 2013 Savanna State 3Troy St.66-51.00.0
August 31, 2013 UAB 31Troy St.34-4.063.5
November 17, 2012 Arkansas St. 41Troy St.343.568.5
November 10, 2012 Navy 31Troy St.412.560.0
October 20, 2012 Fla-International 37Troy St.38-6.557.0
October 11, 2012 Western Kentucky 31Troy St.261.555.0
September 15, 2012 Miss. St. 30Troy St.2414.558.0

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