NBA Betting Preview & Picks

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

Game Date: Thursday, June 7, 2012 | Game Time: 8:30 PM | Home Line: 2.0 | Total: 180.0

by Ron McCoy

Miami Heat v Boston Celtics Series Betting Trends

The Miami Heat travel to Boston to play the Celtics at 8:30 PM on Thursday, June 7, 2012. Boston is the underdog in this matchup, getting 2.0 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 180.0.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NBA sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Heat/Celtics Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
March 19, 2014 Miami 96Boston1016.5198.5
January 21, 2014 Boston 86Miami93-9.0196.5
November 9, 2013 Boston 111Miami110-13.5193.5
April 12, 2013 Boston 101Miami109-12.0195.0
March 18, 2013 Miami 105Boston103
January 27, 2013 Miami 98Boston1003.5187.5
October 30, 2012 Boston 107Miami120-6.5186.5
June 9, 2012 Boston 88Miami101-8.0178.5
June 7, 2012 Miami 98Boston792.0180.0
June 7, 2012 Miami 98Boston79

When looking at the last 74 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 46 games compared to 28 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Miami/Boston series is 95.5 ppg while the vistor has put up 91.6 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 3.9 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 74 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 3.9 ppg. That represents a value number of 5.9 when meassured against the offered line of 2.0, suggesting a wager on Boston makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 74 games between the Heat and the Celtics is 187.1 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 7.1 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 180.0 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Miami as the road team and with Boston as the home team.

Recent Results when Miami visits Boston

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
March 19, 2014 Miami 96Boston1016.5198.5
March 18, 2013 Miami 105Boston103
January 27, 2013 Miami 98Boston1003.5187.5
June 7, 2012 Miami 98Boston79
June 7, 2012 Miami 98Boston792.0180.0
June 3, 2012 Miami 91Boston932.0179.5
June 1, 2012 Miami 91Boston101-2.0180.5

When looking at the last 36 games in this series while Boston has been the home team, we can see the Celtics have won 24 games compared to 12 wins for the Heat. Average points scored per game by Boston in this situation is is 91.3 ppg while Miami has put up 87.4 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 3.9 favoring the Celtics.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 3.9 ppg. That represents a value number of 5.9 when meassured against the offered line of 2.0, suggesting a wager on the Celtics makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 36 games between the Heat and the Celtics is 178.7 per game. That creates a differential of 1.3 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 180.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the Miami Heat Cover the Spread?

This season the Miami Heat have played 83 games, averaging 102.2 points per game, while allowing 97.3 points per game. This has led to a season record of 55-28. Let's have a closer look at recent Miami Heat results.

Recent Miami Heat Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
April 20, 2014 Charlotte 88Miami99-10.0185.5
April 16, 2014 Philadelphia 100Miami87-5.5207.0
April 14, 2014 Miami 93Washington114-5.0189.5
April 12, 2014 Miami 85Atlanta984.5194.0
April 11, 2014 Indiana 86Miami98-6.0182.0
April 9, 2014 Miami 102Memphis107-4.5182.0
April 8, 2014 Brooklyn 88Miami87

This season the Miami Heat have played 41 games on the road, averaging 99.9 points per game, while allowing 97.5 points per game. This has led to a season record of 22-19. Let's have a closer look at recent Miami Heat results on the road.

Recent Miami Heat Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
April 14, 2014 Miami 93Washington114-5.0189.5
April 12, 2014 Miami 85Atlanta984.5194.0
April 9, 2014 Miami 102Memphis107-4.5182.0
March 29, 2014 Miami 88Milwaukee678.5198.0
March 28, 2014 Miami 110Detroit786.00.0

Can the Boston Celtics Cover the Spread?

This season the Boston Celtics have played 82 games, averaging 96.2 points per game, while allowing 100.7 points per game. This has led to a season record of 25-28. Let's have a closer look at recent Boston Celtics results.

Recent Boston Celtics Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
April 16, 2014 Washington 118Boston1027.5198.5
April 14, 2014 Boston 108Philadelphia1132.5211.5
April 12, 2014 Boston 111Cleveland99-9.0205.5
April 11, 2014 Charlotte 103Boston1065.0193.0
April 9, 2014 Boston 97Atlanta105-7.5203.5
April 5, 2014 Boston 111Detroit115-6.0207.0
April 4, 2014 Philadelphia 111Boston102-9.5210.0
April 2, 2014 Boston 92Washington118-8.0198.0
March 31, 2014 Boston 80Chicago94-9.5184.0
March 30, 2014 Chicago 107Boston1025.0182.0

This season the Boston Celtics have played 41 games here at home, averaging 96.5 points per game, while allowing 99.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 16-25. Let's have a closer look at recent Boston Celtics results when playing at home.

Recent Boston Celtics Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
April 16, 2014 Washington 118Boston1027.5198.5
April 11, 2014 Charlotte 103Boston1065.0193.0
April 4, 2014 Philadelphia 111Boston102-9.5210.0
March 30, 2014 Chicago 107Boston1025.0182.0
March 26, 2014 Toronto 99Boston903.0195.0
March 19, 2014 Miami 96Boston1016.5198.5
March 14, 2014 Phoenix 87Boston804.5207.5
March 12, 2014 New York 116Boston923.5199.5
March 9, 2014 Detroit 111Boston118-1.0204.5
March 7, 2014 Brooklyn 84Boston91

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