NBA Betting Preview & Picks

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

Game Date: Thursday, June 7, 2012 | Game Time: 8:30 PM | Home Line: 2.0 | Total: 180.0

by Jay Marriucci

Miami Heat v Boston Celtics Series Betting Trends

The Miami Heat travel to Boston to play the Celtics at 8:30 PM on Thursday, June 7, 2012. Boston is the underdog in this matchup, getting 2.0 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 180.0.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NBA sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Heat/Celtics Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 21, 2014 Boston 84Miami100-1.5201.0
March 19, 2014 Miami 96Boston1016.5198.5
January 21, 2014 Boston 86Miami93-9.0196.5
November 9, 2013 Boston 111Miami110-13.5193.5
April 12, 2013 Boston 101Miami109-12.0195.0
March 18, 2013 Miami 105Boston103
January 27, 2013 Miami 98Boston1003.5187.5
October 30, 2012 Boston 107Miami120-6.5186.5
June 9, 2012 Boston 88Miami101-8.0178.5
June 7, 2012 Miami 98Boston79

When looking at the last 75 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 47 games compared to 28 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Miami/Boston series is 95.5 ppg while the vistor has put up 91.5 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 4 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 75 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 4 ppg. That represents a value number of 6 when meassured against the offered line of 2.0, suggesting a wager on Boston makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 75 games between the Heat and the Celtics is 187 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 7 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 180.0 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Miami as the road team and with Boston as the home team.

Recent Results when Miami visits Boston

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
March 19, 2014 Miami 96Boston1016.5198.5
March 18, 2013 Miami 105Boston103
January 27, 2013 Miami 98Boston1003.5187.5
June 7, 2012 Miami 98Boston79
June 7, 2012 Miami 98Boston792.0180.0
June 3, 2012 Miami 91Boston932.0179.5
June 1, 2012 Miami 91Boston101-2.0180.5

When looking at the last 36 games in this series while Boston has been the home team, we can see the Celtics have won 24 games compared to 12 wins for the Heat. Average points scored per game by Boston in this situation is is 91.3 ppg while Miami has put up 87.4 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 3.9 favoring the Celtics.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 3.9 ppg. That represents a value number of 5.9 when meassured against the offered line of 2.0, suggesting a wager on the Celtics makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 36 games between the Heat and the Celtics is 178.7 per game. That creates a differential of 1.3 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 180.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the Miami Heat Cover the Spread?

This season the Miami Heat have played 43 games, averaging 92.8 points per game, while allowing 96.4 points per game. This has led to a season record of 19-24. Let's have a closer look at recent Miami Heat results.

Recent Miami Heat Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 23, 2015 Indiana 87Miami89-3.5182.5
January 21, 2015 Miami 76Charlotte78-6.0183.0
January 20, 2015 Oklahoma City 94Miami867.5200.5
January 16, 2015 Miami 95Sacramento83-3.0191.0
January 14, 2015 Miami 89Golden St.104-12.5203.5
January 13, 2015 Miami 78(LAK) Los Angeles752.5197.5
January 11, 2015 Miami 104(LAC) Los Angeles90-10.0201.0

This season the Miami Heat have played 22 games on the road, averaging 92.2 points per game, while allowing 95.9 points per game. This has led to a season record of 11-11. Let's have a closer look at recent Miami Heat results on the road.

Recent Miami Heat Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 21, 2015 Miami 76Charlotte78-6.0183.0
January 16, 2015 Miami 95Sacramento83-3.0191.0
January 14, 2015 Miami 89Golden St.104-12.5203.5
January 13, 2015 Miami 78(LAK) Los Angeles752.5197.5
January 11, 2015 Miami 104(LAC) Los Angeles90-10.0201.0

Can the Boston Celtics Cover the Spread?

This season the Boston Celtics have played 41 games, averaging 101.7 points per game, while allowing 103.7 points per game. This has led to a season record of 15-24. Let's have a closer look at recent Boston Celtics results.

Recent Boston Celtics Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 23, 2015 Boston 100Denver99-6.5204.5
January 22, 2015 Boston 90Portland89-7.0203.5
January 19, 2015 Boston 93(LAC) Los Angeles102-12.5213.0
January 16, 2015 Chicago 119Boston1035.0204.0
January 14, 2015 Atlanta 105Boston916.0204.0
January 12, 2015 New Orleans 100Boston1084.5204.5
January 10, 2015 Boston 96Toronto109-11.5208.5
January 9, 2015 Boston 103Indiana107
January 7, 2015 Boston 89Brooklyn81
January 5, 2015 Charlotte 104Boston95-5.0198.0

This season the Boston Celtics have played 22 games here at home, averaging 104.0 points per game, while allowing 104.5 points per game. This has led to a season record of 9-13. Let's have a closer look at recent Boston Celtics results when playing at home.

Recent Boston Celtics Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 16, 2015 Chicago 119Boston1035.0204.0
January 14, 2015 Atlanta 105Boston916.0204.0
January 12, 2015 New Orleans 100Boston1084.5204.5
January 5, 2015 Charlotte 104Boston95-5.0198.0
January 2, 2015 Dallas 119Boston1015.5215.0
December 31, 2014 Sacramento 84Boston106
December 26, 2014 Brooklyn 109Boston107-2.0201.0
December 19, 2014 Minnesota 98Boston114-5.5212.0
December 17, 2014 Orlando 92Boston109-3.5200.0
December 12, 2014 New York 101Boston95

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