NCAAF Betting Preview & Picks

Oregon Ducks vs Arizona Wildcats

Game Date: Saturday, September 24, 2011 | Game Time: 10:15 PM | Home Line: 14.5 | Total: 65.0

by Matt Moorhead

Oregon Ducks v Arizona Wildcats Series Betting Trends

The Oregon Ducks travel to Arizona to play the Wildcats at 10:15 PM on Saturday, September 24, 2011. Arizona is the underdog in this matchup, getting 14.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 65.0.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NCAAF sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Ducks/Wildcats Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 23, 2013 Oregon 16Arizona4220.570.0
September 22, 2012 Arizona 0Oregon49-20.578.5
September 24, 2011 Oregon 56Arizona3114.565.0
November 26, 2010 Arizona 29Oregon48-19.562.5
November 21, 2009 Oregon 44Arizona415.059.0
November 15, 2008 Arizona 45Oregon55-6.560.5
November 15, 2007 Oregon 24Arizona34
November 18, 2006 Arizona 37Oregon10
October 22, 2005 Oregon 28Arizona21
October 16, 2004 Arizona 14Oregon28

When looking at the last 19 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 11 games compared to 8 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Oregon/Arizona series is 30.5 ppg while the vistor has put up 26.1 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 4.4 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 19 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 4.4 ppg. That represents a value number of 18.9 when meassured against the offered line of 14.5, suggesting a wager on Arizona makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 19 games between the Ducks and the Wildcats is 56.6 per game. That creates a differential of 8.4 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 65.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Oregon as the road team and with Arizona as the home team.

Recent Results when Oregon visits Arizona

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 23, 2013 Oregon 16Arizona4220.570.0
September 24, 2011 Oregon 56Arizona3114.565.0
November 21, 2009 Oregon 44Arizona415.059.0
November 15, 2007 Oregon 24Arizona34
October 22, 2005 Oregon 28Arizona21
September 13, 2003 Oregon 48Arizona10
October 5, 2002 Oregon 31Arizona14

When looking at the last 11 games in this series while Arizona has been the home team, we can see the Wildcats have won 4 games compared to 7 wins for the Ducks. Average points scored per game by Arizona in this situation is is 28.7 ppg while Oregon has put up 29.2 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 0.5 favoring the Wildcats.

Unlike most series', this one has leaned towards the road team. Specifically, the road team in this series has enjoyed an average advantage of 0.5 ppg. That represents a value number of 15 when meassured against the offered line of 14.5, suggesting a wager on the Wildcats makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks betting against the number looking at the series situation in the vacuum of this trend.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 11 games between the Ducks and the Wildcats is 57.9 per game. That creates a differential of 7.1 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 65.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the Oregon Ducks Cover the Spread?

This season the Oregon Ducks have played 13 games, averaging 45.5 points per game, while allowing 20.5 points per game. This has led to a season record of 11-2. Let's have a closer look at recent Oregon Ducks results.

Recent Oregon Ducks Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 30, 2013 Texas 7Oregon30-14.567.5
November 29, 2013 Oregon St. 35Oregon36-23.570.0
November 23, 2013 Oregon 16Arizona4220.570.0
November 16, 2013 Utah 21Oregon44-27.564.5
November 7, 2013 Oregon 20Stanford2610.561.5
October 26, 2013 UCLA 14Oregon42-23.574.5
October 19, 2013 Washington St. 38Oregon62-38.571.0

This season the Oregon Ducks have played 5 games on the road, averaging 39.4 points per game, while allowing 23.6 points per game. This has led to a season record of 3-2. Let's have a closer look at recent Oregon Ducks results on the road.

Recent Oregon Ducks Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 23, 2013 Oregon 16Arizona4220.570.0
November 7, 2013 Oregon 20Stanford2610.561.5
October 12, 2013 Oregon 45Washington2412.575.0
October 5, 2013 Oregon 57Colorado1638.069.5
September 7, 2013 Oregon 59Virginia1024.561.5

Can the Arizona Wildcats Cover the Spread?

This season the Arizona Wildcats have played 13 games, averaging 33.5 points per game, while allowing 24.2 points per game. This has led to a season record of 8-2. Let's have a closer look at recent Arizona Wildcats results.

Recent Arizona Wildcats Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 31, 2013 Boston College 19Arizona42-7.557.0
November 30, 2013 Arizona 21Arizona St.58-10.561.0
November 23, 2013 Oregon 16Arizona4220.570.0
November 16, 2013 Washington St. 24Arizona17-11.064.0
November 9, 2013 UCLA 31Arizona26-1.559.5
November 2, 2013 Arizona 33California2814.067.5
October 26, 2013 Arizona 44Colorado2012.059.5
October 19, 2013 Utah 24Arizona35-3.561.0
October 10, 2013 Arizona 31Southern Cal38-5.548.0
September 28, 2013 Arizona 13Washington31-8.559.5

This season the Arizona Wildcats have played 7 games here at home, averaging 33.6 points per game, while allowing 18.1 points per game. This has led to a season record of 5-2. Let's have a closer look at recent Arizona Wildcats results when playing at home.

Recent Arizona Wildcats Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
December 31, 2013 Boston College 19Arizona42-7.557.0
November 23, 2013 Oregon 16Arizona4220.570.0
November 16, 2013 Washington St. 24Arizona17-11.064.0
November 9, 2013 UCLA 31Arizona26-1.559.5
October 19, 2013 Utah 24Arizona35-3.561.0
September 14, 2013 Tex - San Antonio 13Arizona38-24.062.5
August 30, 2013 Northern Arizona 0Arizona35
December 15, 2012 Nevada 48Arizona49-8.579.0
November 23, 2012 Arizona St. 41Arizona34-2.571.0
November 10, 2012 Colorado 31Arizona56-29.066.0

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