NBA Betting Preview & Picks

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat

Game Date: Wednesday, March 16, 2011 | Game Time: 8:05 PM | Home Line: -6.5 | Total: 202.5

by Matt Moorhead

Oklahoma City Thunder v Miami Heat Series Betting Trends

The Oklahoma City Thunder travel to Miami to play the Heat at 8:05 PM on Wednesday, March 16, 2011. Miami is the favorite in this matchup, laying -6.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 202.5.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NBA sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Thunder/Heat Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
February 20, 2014 Miami 103Oklahoma City81-3.0206.5
January 29, 2014 Oklahoma City 112Miami95-4.0203.5
February 14, 2013 Miami 110Oklahoma City100-4.5204.0
December 25, 2012 Oklahoma City 97Miami103-2.5204.5
June 21, 2012 Oklahoma City 106Miami121-3.5194.0
June 19, 2012 Oklahoma City 98Miami104-3.0192.5
June 17, 2012 Oklahoma City 85Miami91-4.0193.0
June 14, 2012 Miami 100Oklahoma City96-5.0196.0
June 12, 2012 Miami 94Oklahoma City105-5.0195.5
April 4, 2012 Oklahoma City 93Miami98

When looking at the last 17 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 9 games compared to 8 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Oklahoma City/Miami series is 98.2 ppg while the vistor has put up 98.4 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 0.2 favoring the road team.

Unlike most series', this one has leaned towards the road team. Specifically, the road team in this series has enjoyed an average advantage of 0.2 ppg. That represents a value number of -6.3 when meassured against the offered line of -6.5, suggesting a wager on Oklahoma City makes the most sense - at least, when looking at the series trends from an historical perspective.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 17 games between the Thunder and the Heat is 196.6 per game. That creates a differential of 5.9 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 202.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Oklahoma City as the road team and with Miami as the home team.

Recent Results when Oklahoma City visits Miami

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 29, 2014 Oklahoma City 112Miami95-4.0203.5
December 25, 2012 Oklahoma City 97Miami103-2.5204.5
June 21, 2012 Oklahoma City 106Miami121-3.5194.0
June 19, 2012 Oklahoma City 98Miami104-3.0192.5
June 17, 2012 Oklahoma City 85Miami91-4.0193.0
April 4, 2012 Oklahoma City 93Miami98
March 16, 2011 Oklahoma City 96Miami85-6.5202.5

When looking at the last 9 games in this series while Miami has been the home team, we can see the Heat have won 6 games compared to 3 wins for the Thunder. Average points scored per game by Miami in this situation is is 98.8 ppg while Oklahoma City has put up 98.4 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 0.39999999999999 favoring the Thunder.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 0.39999999999999 ppg. That represents a value number of -6.1 when meassured against the offered line of -6.5, suggesting a wager on the Thunder makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 9 games between the Thunder and the Heat is 197.2 per game. That creates a differential of 5.3 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 202.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the Oklahoma City Thunder Cover the Spread?

This season the Oklahoma City Thunder have played 84 games, averaging 106.1 points per game, while allowing 99.8 points per game. This has led to a season record of 60-24. Let's have a closer look at recent Oklahoma City Thunder results.

Recent Oklahoma City Thunder Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
April 21, 2014 Memphis 111Oklahoma City105-6.5190.0
April 19, 2014 Memphis 86Oklahoma City100-7.5190.5
April 16, 2014 Detroit 111Oklahoma City112-14.0213.0
April 14, 2014 Oklahoma City 89New Orleans1018.0203.5
April 13, 2014 Oklahoma City 97Indiana102
April 11, 2014 New Orleans 94Oklahoma City116-15.5205.0
April 9, 2014 Oklahoma City 107(LAC) Los Angeles101-3.0210.0

This season the Oklahoma City Thunder have played 41 games on the road, averaging 104.6 points per game, while allowing 101.2 points per game. This has led to a season record of 25-16. Let's have a closer look at recent Oklahoma City Thunder results on the road.

Recent Oklahoma City Thunder Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
April 14, 2014 Oklahoma City 89New Orleans1018.0203.5
April 13, 2014 Oklahoma City 97Indiana102
April 9, 2014 Oklahoma City 107(LAC) Los Angeles101-3.0210.0
April 8, 2014 Oklahoma City 107Sacramento928.5202.0
April 6, 2014 Oklahoma City 115Phoenix1222.5210.5

Can the Miami Heat Cover the Spread?

This season the Miami Heat have played 83 games, averaging 102.2 points per game, while allowing 97.3 points per game. This has led to a season record of 55-24. Let's have a closer look at recent Miami Heat results.

Recent Miami Heat Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
April 20, 2014 Charlotte 88Miami99-10.0185.5
April 16, 2014 Philadelphia 100Miami87-5.5207.0
April 14, 2014 Miami 93Washington114-5.0189.5
April 12, 2014 Miami 85Atlanta984.5194.0
April 11, 2014 Indiana 86Miami98-6.0182.0
April 9, 2014 Miami 102Memphis107-4.5182.0
April 8, 2014 Brooklyn 88Miami87
April 6, 2014 New York 91Miami102-7.5186.5
April 4, 2014 Minnesota 122Miami121-8.5203.0
April 2, 2014 Milwaukee 77Miami96-13.0195.0

This season the Miami Heat have played 42 games here at home, averaging 104.3 points per game, while allowing 97.1 points per game. This has led to a season record of 33-9. Let's have a closer look at recent Miami Heat results when playing at home.

Recent Miami Heat Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
April 20, 2014 Charlotte 88Miami99-10.0185.5
April 16, 2014 Philadelphia 100Miami87-5.5207.0
April 11, 2014 Indiana 86Miami98-6.0182.0
April 8, 2014 Brooklyn 88Miami87
April 6, 2014 New York 91Miami102-7.5186.5
April 4, 2014 Minnesota 122Miami121-8.5203.0
April 2, 2014 Milwaukee 77Miami96-13.0195.0
March 31, 2014 Toronto 83Miami93-5.5192.5
March 24, 2014 Portland 91Miami93
March 21, 2014 Memphis 86Miami91-4.5191.0

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