NBA Betting Preview & Picks

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat

Game Date: Wednesday, March 16, 2011 | Game Time: 8:05 PM | Home Line: -6.5 | Total: 202.5

by Matt Moorhead

Oklahoma City Thunder v Miami Heat Series Betting Trends

The Oklahoma City Thunder travel to Miami to play the Heat at 8:05 PM on Wednesday, March 16, 2011. Miami is the favorite in this matchup, laying -6.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 202.5.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NBA sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Thunder/Heat Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
February 20, 2014 Miami 103Oklahoma City81-3.0206.5
January 29, 2014 Oklahoma City 112Miami95-4.0203.5
February 14, 2013 Miami 110Oklahoma City100-4.5204.0
December 25, 2012 Oklahoma City 97Miami103-2.5204.5
June 21, 2012 Oklahoma City 106Miami121-3.5194.0
June 19, 2012 Oklahoma City 98Miami104-3.0192.5
June 17, 2012 Oklahoma City 85Miami91-4.0193.0
June 14, 2012 Miami 100Oklahoma City96-5.0196.0
June 12, 2012 Miami 94Oklahoma City105-5.0195.5
April 4, 2012 Oklahoma City 93Miami98

When looking at the last 17 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 9 games compared to 8 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Oklahoma City/Miami series is 98.2 ppg while the vistor has put up 98.4 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 0.2 favoring the road team.

Unlike most series', this one has leaned towards the road team. Specifically, the road team in this series has enjoyed an average advantage of 0.2 ppg. That represents a value number of -6.3 when meassured against the offered line of -6.5, suggesting a wager on Oklahoma City makes the most sense - at least, when looking at the series trends from an historical perspective.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 17 games between the Thunder and the Heat is 196.6 per game. That creates a differential of 5.9 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 202.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Oklahoma City as the road team and with Miami as the home team.

Recent Results when Oklahoma City visits Miami

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 29, 2014 Oklahoma City 112Miami95-4.0203.5
December 25, 2012 Oklahoma City 97Miami103-2.5204.5
June 21, 2012 Oklahoma City 106Miami121-3.5194.0
June 19, 2012 Oklahoma City 98Miami104-3.0192.5
June 17, 2012 Oklahoma City 85Miami91-4.0193.0
April 4, 2012 Oklahoma City 93Miami98
March 16, 2011 Oklahoma City 96Miami85-6.5202.5

When looking at the last 9 games in this series while Miami has been the home team, we can see the Heat have won 6 games compared to 3 wins for the Thunder. Average points scored per game by Miami in this situation is is 98.8 ppg while Oklahoma City has put up 98.4 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 0.4 favoring the Thunder.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 0.4 ppg. That represents a value number of -6.1 when meassured against the offered line of -6.5, suggesting a wager on the Thunder makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 9 games between the Thunder and the Heat is 197.2 per game. That creates a differential of 5.3 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 202.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the Oklahoma City Thunder Cover the Spread?

This season the Oklahoma City Thunder have played 13 games, averaging 89.7 points per game, while allowing 95.3 points per game. This has led to a season record of 3-10. Let's have a closer look at recent Oklahoma City Thunder results.

Recent Oklahoma City Thunder Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 19, 2014 Oklahoma City 100Denver107-7.5199.0
November 18, 2014 Oklahoma City 81Utah98-3.0186.0
November 16, 2014 Houston 69Oklahoma City655.0192.0
November 14, 2014 Detroit 96Oklahoma City89-3.0189.0
November 12, 2014 Oklahoma City 109Boston94-7.0196.5
November 11, 2014 Oklahoma City 78Milwaukee85-3.5191.0
November 9, 2014 Sacramento 93Oklahoma City1012.0191.5

This season the Oklahoma City Thunder have played 8 games on the road, averaging 90.0 points per game, while allowing 99.9 points per game. This has led to a season record of 1-7. Let's have a closer look at recent Oklahoma City Thunder results on the road.

Recent Oklahoma City Thunder Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 19, 2014 Oklahoma City 100Denver107-7.5199.0
November 18, 2014 Oklahoma City 81Utah98-3.0186.0
November 12, 2014 Oklahoma City 109Boston94-7.0196.5
November 11, 2014 Oklahoma City 78Milwaukee85-3.5191.0
November 4, 2014 Oklahoma City 88Toronto100-11.5193.0

Can the Miami Heat Cover the Spread?

This season the Miami Heat have played 12 games, averaging 97.1 points per game, while allowing 97.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 6-10. Let's have a closer look at recent Miami Heat results.

Recent Miami Heat Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 20, 2014 (LAC) Los Angeles 110Miami93
November 17, 2014 Miami 95Brooklyn83-6.5195.5
November 16, 2014 Milwaukee 91Miami84-5.0189.5
November 14, 2014 Miami 103Atlanta114-5.0193.0
November 12, 2014 Indiana 81Miami75-8.5187.5
November 9, 2014 Miami 105Dallas96-8.0205.0
November 8, 2014 Minnesota 92Miami102-7.5205.0
November 5, 2014 Miami 89Charlotte96-2.0190.0
November 4, 2014 Houston 108Miami91-1.5202.0
November 2, 2014 Toronto 102Miami107-2.0197.0

This season the Miami Heat have played 7 games here at home, averaging 94.1 points per game, while allowing 97.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 3-4. Let's have a closer look at recent Miami Heat results when playing at home.

Recent Miami Heat Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
November 20, 2014 (LAC) Los Angeles 110Miami93
November 16, 2014 Milwaukee 91Miami84-5.0189.5
November 12, 2014 Indiana 81Miami75-8.5187.5
November 8, 2014 Minnesota 92Miami102-7.5205.0
November 4, 2014 Houston 108Miami91-1.5202.0
November 2, 2014 Toronto 102Miami107-2.0197.0
October 29, 2014 Washington 95Miami107-3.5189.5
June 12, 2014 San Antonio 107Miami86-5.5197.0
June 10, 2014 San Antonio 111Miami92-4.0197.0
May 30, 2014 Indiana 92Miami117-7.5182.5

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