NBA Betting Preview & Picks

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat

Game Date: Wednesday, March 16, 2011 | Game Time: 8:05 PM | Home Line: -6.5 | Total: 202.5

by Matt Moorhead

Oklahoma City Thunder v Miami Heat Series Betting Trends

The Oklahoma City Thunder travel to Miami to play the Heat at 8:05 PM on Wednesday, March 16, 2011. Miami is the favorite in this matchup, laying -6.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 202.5.

Before getting to specific team details, let's have a look at the recent games in this series to see if we can identify any NBA sports betting trends to assist in making the right pick in this game.

Recent Results in the Thunder/Heat Series

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 20, 2015 Oklahoma City 94Miami867.5200.5
February 20, 2014 Miami 103Oklahoma City81-3.0206.5
January 29, 2014 Oklahoma City 112Miami95-4.0203.5
February 14, 2013 Miami 110Oklahoma City100-4.5204.0
December 25, 2012 Oklahoma City 97Miami103-2.5204.5
June 21, 2012 Oklahoma City 106Miami121-3.5194.0
June 19, 2012 Oklahoma City 98Miami104-3.0192.5
June 17, 2012 Oklahoma City 85Miami91-4.0193.0
June 14, 2012 Miami 100Oklahoma City96-5.0196.0
June 12, 2012 Miami 94Oklahoma City105-5.0195.5

When looking at the last 18 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 9 games compared to 9 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Oklahoma City/Miami series is 97.5 ppg while the vistor has put up 98.1 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 0.6 favoring the road team.

Unlike most series', this one has leaned towards the road team. Specifically, the road team in this series has enjoyed an average advantage of 0.6 ppg. That represents a value number of -5.9 when meassured against the offered line of -6.5, suggesting a wager on Oklahoma City makes the most sense - at least, when looking at the series trends from an historical perspective.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 18 games between the Thunder and the Heat is 195.6 per game. That creates a differential of 6.9 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 202.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Oklahoma City as the road team and with Miami as the home team.

Recent Results when Oklahoma City visits Miami

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 20, 2015 Oklahoma City 94Miami867.5200.5
January 29, 2014 Oklahoma City 112Miami95-4.0203.5
December 25, 2012 Oklahoma City 97Miami103-2.5204.5
June 21, 2012 Oklahoma City 106Miami121-3.5194.0
June 19, 2012 Oklahoma City 98Miami104-3.0192.5
June 17, 2012 Oklahoma City 85Miami91-4.0193.0
April 4, 2012 Oklahoma City 93Miami98

When looking at the last 10 games in this series while Miami has been the home team, we can see the Heat have won 6 games compared to 4 wins for the Thunder. Average points scored per game by Miami in this situation is is 97.5 ppg while Oklahoma City has put up 98 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 0.5 favoring the Thunder.

Unlike most series', this one has leaned towards the road team. Specifically, the road team in this series has enjoyed an average advantage of 0.5 ppg. That represents a value number of -6 when meassured against the offered line of -6.5, suggesting a wager on the Thunder makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks betting against the number looking at the series situation in the vacuum of this trend.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 10 games between the Thunder and the Heat is 195.5 per game. That creates a differential of 7 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 202.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the Oklahoma City Thunder Cover the Spread?

This season the Oklahoma City Thunder have played 47 games, averaging 99.1 points per game, while allowing 98.3 points per game. This has led to a season record of 23-24. Let's have a closer look at recent Oklahoma City Thunder results.

Recent Oklahoma City Thunder Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 31, 2015 Oklahoma City 74Memphis85-4.5198.0
January 28, 2015 Oklahoma City 92New York100
January 26, 2015 Minnesota 84Oklahoma City92-13.5207.5
January 25, 2015 Oklahoma City 98Cleveland108-3.5211.5
January 23, 2015 Oklahoma City 93Atlanta103-3.5206.5
January 21, 2015 Oklahoma City 105Washington103-1.0207.5
January 20, 2015 Oklahoma City 94Miami867.5200.5

This season the Oklahoma City Thunder have played 27 games on the road, averaging 97.4 points per game, while allowing 101.2 points per game. This has led to a season record of 10-17. Let's have a closer look at recent Oklahoma City Thunder results on the road.

Recent Oklahoma City Thunder Road Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 31, 2015 Oklahoma City 74Memphis85-4.5198.0
January 28, 2015 Oklahoma City 92New York100
January 25, 2015 Oklahoma City 98Cleveland108-3.5211.5
January 23, 2015 Oklahoma City 93Atlanta103-3.5206.5
January 21, 2015 Oklahoma City 105Washington103-1.0207.5

Can the Miami Heat Cover the Spread?

This season the Miami Heat have played 46 games, averaging 92.7 points per game, while allowing 96.4 points per game. This has led to a season record of 20-24. Let's have a closer look at recent Miami Heat results.

Recent Miami Heat Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 30, 2015 Dallas 93Miami729.0192.0
January 27, 2015 Milwaukee 109Miami102-2.0185.5
January 25, 2015 Miami 96Chicago84-8.5187.0
January 23, 2015 Indiana 87Miami89-3.5182.5
January 21, 2015 Miami 76Charlotte78-6.0183.0
January 20, 2015 Oklahoma City 94Miami867.5200.5
January 16, 2015 Miami 95Sacramento83-3.0191.0
January 14, 2015 Miami 89Golden St.104-12.5203.5
January 13, 2015 Miami 78(LAK) Los Angeles752.5197.5
January 11, 2015 Miami 104(LAC) Los Angeles90-10.0201.0

This season the Miami Heat have played 23 games here at home, averaging 93.0 points per game, while allowing 97.3 points per game. This has led to a season record of 8-15. Let's have a closer look at recent Miami Heat results when playing at home.

Recent Miami Heat Home Results

DateAwayTeamScoreHomeTeamScoreHomeLineTotal
January 30, 2015 Dallas 93Miami729.0192.0
January 27, 2015 Milwaukee 109Miami102-2.0185.5
January 23, 2015 Indiana 87Miami89-3.5182.5
January 20, 2015 Oklahoma City 94Miami867.5200.5
January 4, 2015 Brooklyn 84Miami882.5193.5
December 29, 2014 Orlando 102Miami101
December 27, 2014 Memphis 103Miami953.0190.5
December 25, 2014 Cleveland 91Miami1016.0196.0
December 23, 2014 Philadelphia 91Miami87-8.0191.0
December 21, 2014 Boston 84Miami100-1.5201.0

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