We all know that when you are betting on football the most important numbers are 3, 7, and to a lesser degree 10. These Key Numbers for bookmakers are a result of the field goal, touchdown or a combination of each; we call them key numbers, as they are the difference in a football games score more often than any other point difference. Therefore, when you see a point spread of 3 or 7, the bookmakers will be less likely to move the line based on action for fear of being middled or sided by bettors.

If we used 3 as an example, if the sportsbook opens a line at 2½ and all the action comes in on the favorite, the next step to balance the action would be to move the line to 3 points. Now if the action continues a rookie bookie could move the line to 3½ to try to quell the action on the favorite. This leaves the sportsbook in a dangerous position because if at 3½ the bookmaker takes a ton of wise guy action on the underdog.

Let’s say the book takes $100,000 on the favorite at the first two numbers and then $100,000 on the underdog at 3½. Now if the game finishes with a three-point difference, the book will lose the favorite money at 2½, push both sides at 3 points and lose the underdog money at 3½. I know you’re thinking this doesn’t affect me but if a bookmaker doesn’t run his numbers correctly, it can create bad news for bettors when it’s time to take a payout.

What most quality bookmakers, like those at BetUS.com, will do is create an “off-standard line”. An “off-standard line” is when bookies attach a moneyline to the pointspread, it will look like this -3(-120). This reason for this is encourage bettors to take the underdog by offering better juice and discourage action on the favorite because of the increased cost to take a number.

Football is easy to understand but pro NBA Betting and College Basketball Betting are almost as popular with bettors so I often get the question, what are the NBA’s key numbers? My mentor told me like his mentor told him and as I’ll tell you, they are 7, and 2. OK I won’t leave it there, let me explain.

The number 2 is easy to understand as the most common way to score in the NBA is on a two-point shot. Like football, the keys come from the most common ways to score; a two-point shot, a three point shot and a two plus a foul. If you see a line of 2 points, the odds makers expect a good game so the game will likely finish with a point difference of 1, 2, or 3 points. If the line is 2, chances are you won’t see too much movement, however, you will likely see a moneyline attached to the 2-point spread.

7 is considered an NBA key number, as when a team fall behind by 7 points it becomes a three possession game and the losing team is less likely try to foul their way back in but of course one timely three and we’re back to a fouling. If you have a bet at 6.5 points, take a deep breath because the closing minute will likely be a stressful one.


To go a little deeper I analyzed the results from the first 557 games this season and this is what I’ve found.
7 – 43 games 7.77%
8 – 34 games 6.1%
9 – 34 games 6.1%
4 – 34 games 6.1%
2 – 31 games 5.56%
5 – 29 games 5.2%
11 – 28 games 5.02%
10 – 27 games 4.84%
3 – 26 games 4.66%
6 – 25 games 4.48%
13 – 25 games 4.48%
1 – 23 games 4.1%
12 – 20 games 3.59%
14 – 21 games 3.77%
15+– 144 games 26%
Looking at the results, we can see that 7.77% of games this season have finished on the key number of 7 points, followed by 8 and 9 at 6.1% each. This is due to the losing team being unable to get a stop and score to get back into the game.
Our other key number of 2 shows up a little further down the list sandwiched between 4 points (6.1%) and 5 points (5.2%) which leaves us at our key number plus two foul shots or a three pointer.
Add it up and 19.97% of games fall on the key number of 7 or a point, either side of 7.
If you like true game winning shots, enjoy them when you see them as only 4.1% of all games finish by a single point, this number is up over the past decade as it usually sits around 3.5%.

Tommy Long learned bookmaking from a New York wise guy and statistics from a rouge mathematician, he has spent most of the decade running lines, creating odds and passing on the knowledge he picks up along the way.


This information is provided in partnership with BetUs Sportsbook

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