The Ravens came on strong against a dwindling New England team, and played hard nosed enough to entice a majority of the betting community to wander to their side of the oddsmakers’ tracks. People balked at the -6.5 line that Indianapolis was getting and believed whole heartedly that the Ravens defense could step up in the face of the reigning MVP and get the job done. Then the Colts went to work and it was evident early on that this game was an open-shut case of “Don’t Bet Against The Colts This Season”.

Manning and the Colts had been facing doubters and haters all season, and tossing in the towel on a perfect season against the Jets in Week 16 only added fuel to the fire. Yet nearly three weeks of rest and tape study gave the Colts an advantage that I begged you to bank on. The Colts won in the UNDER, just like I predicted.

Baltimore had been ridiculously efficient against the Patriots, but the one curious stat line from that game was Joe Flacco’s four completions. He was asked to do much more against the Colts, throwing 20-for-35 completions for 189 yards but failed to get in to the red zone. He also gave up two picks, and most of his passes were cheesy dump offs to Ray Rice.

Rice, who’s dominant running style can crack open a game, touched the ball 13 times as a runner and 9 times as a receiver for 127 total yards, but the Colts figured out early on that Rice was the Ravens’ only weapon. You simply can’t win in the NFL playoffs with a one-dimensional offense.

Just don’t tell that to the Colts. Joseph Addai averaged just 2.1 yards per carry as the Colts mustered just 42 rush yards against one of the best rush defenses in the league. It’s not like things will get easier for Addai, who has yet to breach the 100-yard ceiling this year (his season high was 79 yards), who will go up against the Jets’ top ranked defense in the championship game. Addai, simply put, has been impotent all season.

Yet it’s the MVP season of quarterback Peyton Manning that has the Colts as heavy favorites against the Jets in next Sunday’s AFC championship tilt. Those of you that have saddled the Colts on the NFL betting line must be loving their now 11-6 ATS record in 17 games. It’s just so much easier when you see Peyton with the ball in his hands. Against Baltimore he was calm, collected and precise delivering 30-of-44 completions for 246 yards and 2 touchdowns. It was clear cut proof as to why he deserved the MVP award this season.

The last time that Peyton Manning won an MVP and the Colts advanced to the conference championships, they lost to the New England Patriots in 2003. Three seasons later they went on to beat the Patriots in the AFC title tilt and win the Super Bowl against the Bears. And yes, it’s been three years since that time. If you believe in cycles, then the Colts are in for a rude awakening against the unruly Jets.

Yet if you believe in Peyton Manning’s evolution and the way he dominates defenses, then you have to believe in the Colts. Either way you cut it, this is a team that proved it can stop the run against Baltimore by swarming all over Ray Rice. It’s also a team led by Peyton, one of the game’s all-time greatest quarterbacks. On paper, the Colts are not a complete team, but they sure as hell play like one. Injuries on defense and an inept rushing attack put question marks on the Colts’ chances of getting past the Jets.

The Colts and their betting backers can rest assured, however, that their chances of appearning Super Bowl XLIV are in good hands.

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