1. Bill Belichik – New England Patriots (10-6)
You can’t argue with success. Belichik has four Super Bowl wins to his name and has the star he lacked last year with Tom Brady. Problem is that he has lost the star that has served as a crucial element to his offense: Wes Welker. This team has obvious deficiencies across the board in defense and mega problems with Laurence Maroney in the rushing attack, but if any coach in the AFC can rally the troops and design debilitating game plans to win games in the post season, it’s Uncle Bill.

AFC Championship Odds: Patriots +500

2. John Harbaugh – Baltimore Ravens (9-7)
This might be a little high for a second year coach, but again I’m not one to argue with results. He already has 20-wins as a head coach in the regular season, and has two post season victories over the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans from last season. With second-year quarterback Joe Flacco, the Baltimore Ravens are one of those scary teams to bet on. They’re just 8-7-1 ATS this year and their defense can either play like it’s 2000…or they can act their age. Still a young resume, Harbaugh can add to his amazing post-season feats by thwarting Belichik this weekend.

AFC Championship Odds: Ravens +1400

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3. Norv Turner – San Diego Chargers (11-5)
Norv has been coaching for years and he’s been hanging around the scene for so long that somewhere along the line he was eventually going to get a great team, right? Well now he has one. The Chargers are a top-5 offensive team and a defense that can play dangerously well with a bit of momentum behind them, but every time they show Norv on the sidelines I can’t help but be reminded of his short comings as a coach.

Norv is 4-3 SU in the playoffs as a coach of the Redskins, Raiders and Chargers but he’s never advanced past the AFC Championship game. But he’s never coached a team that’s done this well. All of his playoff teams have entered the fray as wildcard contenders. This is the best team he’s coached, and thus his best chance at winning it all. Then again, if any coach can screw up the playoffs in the AFC…it’s Turner.

AFC Championship Odds: Chargers +200

4. Rex Ryan – New York Jets (9-7)
In his first stint as a head coach, he took a rookie QB who couldn’t handle playing in the cold and survived the wildcard gauntlet to earn playoff rights as the second place finisher in the AFC East. His players love him, he’s ferocious and relentless on defense with tons of talent to take advantage of his particular coaching specialties. As a member of the Brian Billick coaching tree, and serving under John Harbaugh for one year, Ryan has all the tools to serve as a long-term coach in the NFL for the Ravens. How will he fare in the 2009 NFL betting playoffs? That remains to be seen.

AFC Championship Odds: Jets +2000

5. Marvin Lewis – Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
Likeable team. Unlikeable play calling and zero wins in the playoffs in seven years. Need I say more?

AFC Championship Odds: Bengals +1600
6. Jim Caldwell – Indianapolis Colts (14-2)
Caldwell may have just two losses on his record as a head coach, but he has zero wins in the post season and nobody’s sure if he’s coaching this team or if he’s relying on a great staff and Peyton Manning. Sure, he’s been in the shadow of the great Tony Dungy, but that doesn’t mean that the apple won’t get taken up by the furious winds of the playoffs and hurled far from the tree. Until Caldwell proves he can make better decisions than pulling his starters and throwing away a perfect season, he’s the most unproven commodity in the bunch.
AFC Championship Odds: Colts +110


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