Wild-Card Playoff Round

Who says parity is dead in the NFL? This weekend's Wild Card round is populated by small favorites, and the football betting world isn't shying away from the underdogs. Except for one, that is.

Saturday: N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati (4:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

Rex Ryan says the Jets (9-7 SU, 8-7 ATS) should be the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIV in Miami. They're not; the NFL odds on the futures market have New York on the bottom of the pile at 45-1, and the Bengals (10-6 SU, 7-8 ATS) are 3-point favorites (+105) for Saturday's Wild Card game. Bettors are piling in on Cincinnati at about a 2:1 ratio according to the consensus reports at press time.

Ryan is correct when he says that the Jets have the best defense in the NFL. They're rated No. 1 overall in efficiency by Football Outsiders, and they also lead the league in more conventional stats like points allowed (14.8 per game) and yards allowed (251.6). No argument there.

Cincinnati, however, had a free look at the Jets in last week's 37-0 loss, which the Bengals treated like a preseason game after having already clinched the AFC North title. They didn't blitz QB Mark Sanchez (12 TDs, 20 INTs), but they almost certainly will on Saturday.

Saturday: Philadelphia at Dallas (8:00 p.m. ET, NBC)

Both teams finished the season at 11-5 SU and 9-7 ATS; Philadelphia was ranked third in efficiency, with Dallas close behind in fifth. But the Cowboys are the biggest favorites on the Wild Card board at -4. They were -4 (-105) at the open, picking up a little extra juice with 57 percent support from the betting public.

The Eagles have actually been the more public team of the two this year, as bettors started abandoning Dallas in expectation of yet another December swoon. It didn't happen. The Cowboys went 3-0 SU and ATS to end the regular season, beating Philadelphia 24-0 in the finale as 3-point home faves. The 'Boys also beat the Eagles (-3) 20-16 back at the Linc in Week 9.

The UNDER cashed in during both of those Dallas wins, but the public is hammering the OVER as usual on the total of 45 points. The Cowboys defense has improved enough to drive the UNDER to the pay window in eight of the last nine games.

Sunday: Baltimore at New England (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)

If you didn't know who Julian Edelman was before this week, you're not alone in the world. He's a wide receiver for the New England Patriots (10-6 SU, 7-7-2 ATS) who plays in the tall shadow of Randy Moss and Wes Welker. But Edelman will be filling in for the injured Welker on Sunday against the Ravens (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS), an elite defensive team that finished the year No. 1 in efficiency despite squeaking into the playoffs.

Even with this handicap, the Patriots are 3.5-point favorites (-105) at Gillette Stadium, down from the standard -110 juice as bettors shade ever so slightly to Baltimore. Timing is everything; sharps are grabbing the Ravens while they can with the spread at 3.5, in anticipation of a flood of public money on the Patriots over the weekend.

Sharps are also aware of the weaknesses of the New England defensive line, which finished No. 26 in the league in run blocking efficiency and collected just 31 sacks. The Ravens have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

Sunday: Green Bay at Arizona (4:40 p.m. ET, FOX)

The smallest spread of the weekend is in Glendale, where the Cardinals (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) were favored by a field goal at the open, but got pounded all the way down to a single PAT by Green Bay supporters. Consensus reports show 85 percent support for the Packers, the most profitable team in the NFL this season at 11-5 SU and 11-4-1 ATS.

Green Bay had very little trouble during last Sunday's 33-7 win over the Cardinals (-3), but Arizona was also in preseason mode with the NFC West already sewn up. The Packers took the money anyway for the sixth straight game to improve to 7-0-1 ATS over the second half of the season. They're second only to Baltimore in overall efficiency and second in defensive efficiency, as well as second in yards allowed per game at 284.4.

The Cardinals were rather pedestrian in comparison at No. 13 in overall efficiency, but they too got a free look at the Packers last week and will adjust accordingly. The question is whether they have the talent to make it happen. WR Anquan Boldin (84 catches) has knee and ankle sprains and is currently listed as questionable for Sunday. Also, the status of CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (bruised kneecap) remains uncertain.

This information is provided in partnership with BoDog Sportsbook

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