Somewhere, Paul "Bear" Bryant is smiling. The legendary coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide passed away 27 years ago, and his team has won just one national championship since then, back in 1992. But the college football odds suggest the long wait will be over Thursday night. Alabama is favored by four points over the Texas Longhorns in the BCS Championship Game, being played this year at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena.

Bryant would have reason to be optimistic. The Crimson Tide (13-0 SU, 8-5 ATS) are No. 1 on the BCS computers and in the polls. Football statheads like Brian Fremeau concur, ranking Alabama No. 1 in the FBS in overall efficiency and No. 1 in defense. The Tide earned their shot at the national championship by sweeping away then-No. 1 Florida (-4.5) 32-13 in the SEC title game, getting revenge for last year's victory by the eventual champions.

The Longhorns (13-0 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) aren't football gambling pariahs by any means. The No. 2 team on the computers and polls is also No. 3 in the nation in efficiency and perfectly capable of competing with Alabama. Mack Brown is a two-time winner of the Bear Bryant Award as coach of the year (twice as many as Tide coach Nick Saban), most recently in 2005 after leading the ‘Horns to the national championship. His quarterback, Colt McCoy, was named the 2009 Sporting News College Athlete of the Year after finishing a close third in the Heisman voting.

Texas is also very strong on defense at No. 11 in efficiency - good thing, because those 11 men will have to stop the Heisman winner, Alabama running back Mark Ingram (6.2 yards per carry, 15 TDs rushing). It can be done; Auburn (+10) held Ingram to 30 yards on 16 carries in Week 13 and nearly pulled off a major upset before losing the Iron Bowl 26-21. Otherwise, Ingram has run roughshod over the opposition, and he's also proved dangerous in the flat with 30 passes for three TDs.

Even more impressive, Ingram has done most of his damage in the SEC. The Tide faced a much more difficult strength of schedule than Texas did; according to Fremeau's calculations, Alabama was ranked No. 26 in the FBS in that department, compared to the ‘Horns at No. 93. McCoy shredded some very suspect Big 12 defenses this year, but the matchup on the ground between the Texas offensive line and the stout Alabama defensive line (anchored by gigantic nose tackle Terrence Cody) doesn't look nearly as promising for McCoy.

The difference - both real and perceived - in quality between the SEC and Big 12 is why the Tide are 4-point favorites in this matchup. And while Alabama dropped the hammer on the Gators, the Longhorns came very close to losing the Big 12 title game to Nebraska (+14) before Hunter Lawrence kicked a 46-yard field goal with no time remaining to salvage a 13-12 victory. This was one week after Texas A&M (+20.5) fought valiantly before losing 49-39 to rival Texas.

Those results aren't inspiring many bettors to lay down on the Longhorns. Consensus reports at press time had the Tide hauling in about 80 percent support - and yet Alabama was a 5-point favorite when the line opened three weeks ago. If the other 20 percent of the betting public is that influential in the marketplace, it follows that there must be some sharp money in there.

Besides being a very good football team, the Longhorns have two factors working for them. One is the weather in Pasadena: mostly clear with temperatures in the mid-60s at game time according to reports as we went to press. Those conditions would suit McCoy quite nicely. From a strategy perspective, he's going to need to heave the ball downfield now and then to keep Alabama from taking away McCoy's preferred short- and intermediate-range targets.

The second factor is the return of safety Christian Scott, who will be playing his first game of the season after originally being ruled academically ineligible, an issue that has since been rectified. The redshirt freshman was competing for a starting job during training camp and impressed coaches with his hitting power. Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp confirmed with reporters Tuesday that Scott would be in the BCS Championship Game on defense as well as special teams - the one area where Texas has a distinct advantage in this matchup.

This information is provided in partnership with BoDog Sportsbook

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