Though blasted by critics and fans, Jim Caldwell defended his benching of Peyton Manning because he didn’t want to have his star injured with the NFL playoffs right around the corner.

It’s a decision that Bill Belichik didn’t make, and now it’s cost him one of his best players in Wes Welker who will be lost for the remainder of this season, and the 2010 season as well, with a completely ravaged knee injury. The Patriots may have Brady back under center, but now they’ve lost their most critical offensive weapon.

Tom Brady has already come out saying that the Patriots can’t replace a guy like Wes Welker, but that’s a heavy understatement. Welker led the league with 123 receptions, and was second with 1,348 recieving yards. The only player that was targeted more by a quarterback this season was Andre Johnson of the Houston Texans. Welker amassed 123 catches on 162 targets, reaching the endzone four times.

Welker is critical to the New England passing attack, which ranks third in the league in passing yards per game with 277.3. Though he didn’t reach the endzone that much, Welker is one of Brady’s favorite targets and was used to march New England down the field.

New England chewed up the third most turf in the league with 6,357 yards of total offense this season, ranking behind only Dallas and New Orleans. Welker was used primarily on short yardage plays, and his incredible speed and extremely reliable hands made him a deadly player on screen passes, dumps and slants.

You simply can not replace a guy like Welker and the Patriots are especially thin at receiver. Wes and Randy Moss both breached 1200 yards this season, but no other player on the Patriots has more than 404 yards receiving. Julian Edelman, a converted college quarterback, is third in receptions with 39 and Benjamin Watson is an unreliable target at the tight end position.

The Patriots are the third-favored team in the AFC to represent in the Super Bowl, with +500 AFC Championship prop betting futures. The Colts at +110 and Chargers at +200 are the favorites, mostly because they have a first round bye. While the Patriots haven’t exactly had the kind of season they’ve wanted to, they handedly won the AFC East and went 5-2 ATS at home.

Yet the Patriots are a fragile team. Years ago we joked that they were starting janitors and garbage men in the secondary, and for the most part the dynasty of New England has been built on blue collar guys. In recent years, however, the team has been bolstered by the Pro Bowl caliber talents of Brady, Moss and Welker who combine to form one of the more potent and perfect long and short range receiver combos in the league.

A team that prided itself on great scouting and superior depth is now hamstrung by all-world players that form the backbone of the team.


New England’s favored NFL point spread against Baltimore is losing ground in the sportsbook as gamblers try to figure out just how much the Welker injury will kill the Patriots’ offense as they take on the Ravens overzealous defense. New England went just 2-3-1 ATS down the stretch, and without Welker their chances in the tight race for the AFC Championship just took a serious blow. The worst part is that the rehab for such an injury will keep Welker out of action for 2010 as well and he probably won’t be fully ready to compete until 2011.

The Patriots lost some magic when they were upset by the Giants two Super Bowls ago. They lost the faith of their fans on the dubious “4th and 2” call. Now that they’ve lost their most reliable offensive weapon, I’d be surprised to see anybody filling the seats on the Patriots’ betting bandwagon. Then again, when we doubt the Patriots, they almost always come through. Doing so without Welker, however, may be impossible.

This information is provided in partnership with BetUs Sportsbook

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