Analyzing the Dodgers-Phillies Series - Sportsbook Odds
Thursday, October 15th, 2009 at Dodger Stadium

National League Championship Series

Los Angeles Dodgers -125

Philadelphia Phillies -105

EXACT SERIES RESULT

Philadelphia Phillies to win 4-0 +1200

Philadelphia Phillies to win 4-1 +550

Philadelphia Phillies to win 4-2 +450

Philadelphia Phillies to win 4-3 +500

Los Angeles Dodgers to win 4-0 +1200

Los Angeles Dodgers to win 4-1 +550

Los Angeles Dodgers to win 4-2 +400

Los Angeles Dodgers to win 4-3 +400

The National League Championship Series starts on Thursday in Los Angeles, with Randy Wolf of the Dodgers opposing Cole Hamels of the Phillies, who is last year's NLCS and World Series MVP. In the opener, the Dodgers are a -115 favorite, with a total of seven and a half runs posted.

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to the series:

•PHIL has won four of its last five games
•PHIL has played eleven of its last 16 games OVER the total
•LA has won its last five games


As far as the head-to-head matchup is concerned, Philadelphia comes into the series having won eleven of the last 16 meetings, although the Dodgers have taken four of the last six. Four of the last five meetings have gone under the total. Philadelphia has played pretty well against left-handers, chalking up a record of 29-16, and has a 64-53 mark against righties, while the Dodgers have sizzled against right-handers (68-47) and are solid but unspectacular against southpaws (27-20).

Maybe that's one edge that Philadelphia takes into the series - the fact that they can throw three quality left-handed pitchers at this Los Angeles lineup - Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and J.A. Happ. With two very big efforts in the series against Colorado, Lee is dangerous, and doubly so because he can throw a lot of innings. He went the distance in Game 1. However, there is the possibility that he'll only get one start here, since he can't pitch until Game 3. Happ only went three innings two nights ago, but I am expecting that he'll start the second game.

You've got to keep in mind for Game 1 that the Phillies are logging a lot of miles. They have flown from the Mountain time zone, back home to Philly, then go right back out to Los Angeles.

You also have to consider the Dodgers to have a big edge in the bullpen, because for one thing, they have a couple of guys who can come in and close out a game in Jonathan Broxton (36 saves, 2.61 ERA) and George Sherrill, who had a microscopic 0.65 ERA since joining the Dodgers. Brad Lidge (he of the 0-8 record with 7.21 ERA) has been very combustible this season, but he was this team's, and the league's MVP last season, and if his pair of saves in the Colorado series are any indication, he actually becomes a big bonus for the Phillies. Still, I'd have to see more before coming to the conclusion that he has regained his form.

Philadelphia may have to depend on one of the starting pitchers (not in the rotation) to log some innings of relief work. Maybe that's Joe Blanton, though we don't know yet if he is going to start Game 2. Martinez might fit into this situation too, although he could go in Game 4. Between Scott Eyre and Ryan Madson, maybe they can get through the eighth and ninth innings of those games.

Torre has had to improvise with his rotation all year, shuffling guys around as necessary because he was faced with injuries. I can't even remember all the guys who started a game for them this season. The keepers are Clayton Kershaw, who won Game 2 against the Cardinals, but has a 6.64 ERA in four starts against the Phillies; Randy Wolf, who walked five batters in 3-2/3 innings in Game 1 of the NLDS, and Vicente Padilla, who threw seven brilliant frames in Game 3. Padilla went 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA since joining the Dodgers.
Torre has something of a luxury, in that he can choose from among other starters, like Chad Billingsley, who went to the All-Star game this year, along with Hiroki Kuroda and Jon Garland, and none of them really have to go too many innings, since the middle relievers for the Dodgers are so outstanding.
The Phillies lead the National League in runs, in homers, in slugging percentage, and they can explode for a big inning at any time. They have a road record of 50-33, with two wins in Denver. However, the Dodgers could always get an explosion from the guy who's been kind of dormant - Manny Ramirez, who had two doubles and two RBI's in the clincher in St. Louis. As long as he's hitting, Andre Ethier (.500 for the series against the Cards, with two homers) is going to get good pitches to hit.
Los Angeles is now 52-31 at home, and they were able to get by the Cards' two aces - Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright - so I don't think the sight of Hamels or Lee is going to be the slightest bit intimidating.
This is a close one, and the price was worth considering with the underdog, but I see too many little advantages for the Dodgers here, and will go with them to win the series overall (-125 at BetUS), making it a seven-game decision.



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