Traditional thinking on basketball has been that there are no spreads with likely enough outcomes to warrant the same type of line move. If you get action at -3, you move to -3.5. More action at -3.5, you move to -4. You get the idea. However, the data for the NBA season paints a different picture since there a handful of numbers that fall enough of the time to be considered in the same category as minor key numbers in the NFL.

Here is a summary of the most landed on scores for the 2001-2002 NBA regular season and their frequency:

7 points 7.4%
5 points 7.1%
6 points 6.9%
3 points 6.6%
9 points 6.4%
2 points 6.2%
8 points 5.3%
4 points 5.2%

These eight outcomes were the margin of victory in over half of all NBA games in the 2001-2002 season. The average margin of victory was a surprising 10.8 (boosted by a 53-point win by the T-Wolves over the Bulls in November). This does not take into account favorites or underdogs, so the likelihood of a spread of -7 actually landing is less than 7.4% because the underdog would have won by 7 in some of these cases. One point was the difference just 3.8% of the time so if you get to see a real buzzer beater, enjoy, as they are much rarer than most people appreciate. Ten through 14 also saw their share of games, all coming in 3.1% 4.6% of the time. The drop-off is pretty severe after that.

Right now I know you are asking "So what?" Let me try and explain how this can help you. First, you know to be very diligent in shopping for the best line if the spread is -2 to -11. This should be the case with any spread but is particularly important in this range. Getting -6.5 instead of -7 in the NBA is statistically more important than getting -3.5 instead of -4 in the NFL but very, very few bettors are aware of that fact.

Secondly, if you are going to play teasers, you now know which are the best lines to tease. Teasing a favorite down from -7.5 to -2.5 will cross four of the most likely outcomes of 7, 5, 6 and 3 so, such a line would have to be a much better candidate for a teaser than would be a spread of -18 or -2.

Finally, when buying points, you now can judge how valuable a half point really is. Don't worry so much about buying to -1. A final score of 1 only lands in 3.6-3.8% of games, yet I see a lot of players buying the spread all the way to -1 (and even -.5!) Buying from -3 to -2 is a lot more valuable than is buying from -2 to -1.

Also note that many bookmakers are picking up on this trend. Ten years ago, you would never have seen an NBA line of -6 (-115), but in today's competitive environment, these lines are showing up more and more.

This information is provided in partnership with BoDog Sportsbook

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