There's not supposed to be any judging in this sport. But look how much sway the opinions of sports writers and head coaches hold over the way people bet on college basketball. The AP rankings and the ESPN/USA Today Poll (aka the Coaches' Poll) are so important that we invariably see results printed like this:

No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers 60, No. 9 Ohio State Buckeyes 57

What do these numbers really mean? The Big Ten Conference also features the No. 11 Michigan State Spartans and the No. 14 Wisconsin Badgers. No other conference has as much talent concentrated at the top of the rankings. But in reality, the Big Ten is not the powerhouse it appears to be – nor is Purdue its best team.

For a more objective sorting of the teams in Division I, sharp handicappers turn to the stathead community. The leading lights of advanced hoops analysis are continually coming up with new and better ways of measuring the “true” quality of a basketball team and its players. The most recognizable of these statheads is Ken Pomeroy, whose efficiency-based rankings are affiliated with the Basketball Prospectus website, part of the unofficial online sports gambling canon. Here's how Pomeroy ranked these four Big Ten teams going into Wednesday's action:

No. 3 Wisconsin
No. 6 Purdue
No. 11 Ohio State
No. 21 Michigan State

According to Pomeroy, the Badgers are undervalued in the polls and the Spartans are getting too much respect. Sure enough, Wisconsin is 14-9 ATS thus far and Michigan State is 10-16 ATS. This is a very simple method for spotting a value fade or follow team; the bigger the difference in the rankings, the bigger the chance that there's money to be made.

Get the latest NCAA Basketball props

Let's pluck out a few other choice examples from the AP rankings for Week 14.

No. 6 Duke Blue Devils (No. 2 Pomeroy)

The Blue Devils are the highest ranked of any Division I team with four losses this year, but a closer look at their body of work shows that Duke still isn't getting enough love from the press. These guys have played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation (No. 4, according to Pomeroy), all four losses were on the road, and tasting defeat at Wisconsin (+4.5) and Georgetown (+2) shouldn't keep Mike Krzyzewski awake at night. Duke is 16-8-1 ATS this year.

No. 16 Brigham Young Cougars (No. 7 Pomeroy)

The Mountain West doesn't serve up a tough schedule at all, but BYU has thumped opponents by an average of 19 points per game. That margin is impressive enough for Pomeroy to treat the Cougars with more respect than the AP writers. BYU supporters have taken advantage at 14-10 ATS.

No. 18 Butler Bulldogs (No. 29 Pomeroy)

Here's a case where the writers are giving a team too much credibility - easy to do with the Bulldogs, who have been to the Tournament three years in a row and are once again destroying the Horizon League. But this is a soft conference, and Butler's "only" winning by 9.2 points per game. That's the formula for their 11-16 ATS record.

Hindsight does play a role in picking out these teams, and there are other examples that don't fit the template (like overvalued Kentucky at 13-11 ATS). That's handicapping for you. This is still a great way to put your finger on the pulse of the betting public, and it will sharpen your opinion of the teams and conferences you study.

Which brings us back to the Big Ten. Pomeroy uses his numbers to rank the conferences as well as the individual teams, and the Big Ten is fourth out of the six majors as we go to press:

1. ACC
2. Big 12
3. Big East
4. Big Ten
5. SEC
6. Pac 10

There's the ACC up top, reminding us of Duke's imposing strength of schedule. Six teams from the ACC are in Pomeroy's Top 25, even if only two made it into the AP poll, the No. 23 Wake Forest Demon Deacons being the others. When it comes time for March Madness, those who survived the ACC are going to carry more value into their non-conference matchups than the Big Ten clubs. That's assuming Duke doesn't fold like a card table again - we don't have reliable numbers for a team's personality. Yet.

Sports betting at Bodog Sportsbook
Place your sports wagers at Bodog with customer service that's second to none!